Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MEXICO7033
2006-12-21 19:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Mexico
Cable title:  

CALDERON DEBUTS WITH A DEFT HAND

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR MX 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MEXICO 007033 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: CALDERON DEBUTS WITH A DEFT HAND

REF: A. MEXICO 6652

B. MEXICO 6823

C. MEXICO 6933

D. MEXICO 7015

Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR CHARLES V. BARCLAY, REASONS
: 1.4(B/D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MEXICO 007033

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: CALDERON DEBUTS WITH A DEFT HAND

REF: A. MEXICO 6652

B. MEXICO 6823

C. MEXICO 6933

D. MEXICO 7015

Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR CHARLES V. BARCLAY, REASONS
: 1.4(B/D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In his first weeks in office, President
Felipe Calderon Hinojosa has seized the initiative on several
important issues, demonstrating his intent to forge an
activist presidency. The change in atmospherics between the
Fox and Calderon administrations has been evident from
Calderon's first day in office: his insistence on taking the
oath in the Chamber of Deputies, notwithstanding opposition
efforts to block the ceremony, portrayed to the nation a
leader who would not bow to pressure. His decision just days
later to order an historically large counternarcotics
operation -- as well as the arrest of key participants in the
Oaxaca disturbances -- demonstrated his understanding that
after the torpor of President Fox's last years in office,
Mexicans are looking for executive action. Some observers
believe his most important accomplishment to date has been
restoring to the presidency the aura of authority that many
believe was eroded by President Fox's informal and disengaged
manner. Calderon has also demonstrated political acumen and
engagement in his handling of his early relations with
Congress. Nevertheless, although Calderon is widely
perceived to have debuted strongly, his actions in Oaxaca and
Michoacan have raised fears in expected quarters of a strain
of authoritarianism, and some second-guessing that his early
moves are designed more for show than impact. What is
certain is that while Calderon intends to play his role very
differently from his predecessor, the political climate here
remains conflictive and there is no shortage of potential
pitfalls in his path. END SUMMARY.

Opposition Delivers Calderon an Early Victory
--------------


2. (C) Most observers believe that the PRD's failed effort
to prevent Calderon from taking the oath of office in the
Congress on December 1 handed Calderon his first political
victory. The images coming out of the event depicted a
determined leader who refused to be cowed by the threats of

an unruly opposition. To many Mexicans, Calderon's
willingness to face down his opponents represented a welcome
contrast to the non-confrontational style of former President
Fox, who many Mexicans believe lacked political courage. By
calling the opposition's bluff and refusing to back down,
Calderon emerged with his reputation enhanced, and with that
of the opposition diminished.

Restoring Dignity to the Presidency
--------------


3. (C) Several well-connected contacts -- all from the PRI
-- have remarked that after Vicente Fox's
less-than-authoritative tenure, Calderon's more decisive and
disciplined demeanor could help restore lost authority to the
presidency. Senior congressional staffer Francisco Guerrero
(PRI) said that Calderon's most important accomplishment to
date has been one of style rather than of substance:
Guerrero argued that simply by acting presidential and
demonstrating political aptitude, Calderon had enhanced the
authority of his office. He added that unlike Fox, who had a
tendency to misspeak with alarming frequency, Calderon had
not committed any "personal" gaffes that might undermine his
public image, even if some of his political decisions
inevitably had been questioned. Influential PRI Senator
Carlos Jimenez largely agreed with Guerrero's analysis,
telling poloff that many of his PRI colleagues in the Senate
were similarly pleased with Calderon's authoritative early
tactics.

Confronting the Oaxaca Crisis Head-on
--------------


4. (SBU) In its first days in office, the Calderon
administration moved swiftly to confront the crisis in
Oaxaca, demonstrating it would not tolerate continued
lawlessness in the state. The new government arrested four
protest leaders visiting Mexico City on December 4, and on
December 7, ordered the Federal Preventive Police (PFP) to

MEXICO 00007033 002 OF 004


raid the Oaxaca state police headquarters, confiscating over
340 guns in order to investigate whether any had been used in
attacks against protesters. The PFP intervention and the
arrest of protest leaders appears to have weakened the
protest movement, and state security forces appear to have
moderated their tactics in response. Since Calderon took
office, calm has been largely restored to Oaxaca,s streets,
although there have been sporadic marches demanding the
release of detained protesters. On December 16, the PFP
began withdrawing from Oaxaca City, turning security
responsibilities back over to state and municipal police and
releasing 43 protesters held in Nayarit following the
November 25 uprising (ref A).


5. (C) Yet while Calderon has shown the determination to
restore law-and-order, some political analysts fear he lacks
an end-game strategy for Oaxaca; is unwilling to alienate the
PRI by insisting on the resignation of Oaxaca Governor Ulises
Ruiz; and is prioritizing order at the expense of civil
rights. A federal raid on the state police headquarters
provided some assurance that the Calderon government would
not be one-sided, although the GOM has yet to hold anyone
linked to the governor responsible for violence. Moreover,
while the GOM's arrest of protest leaders was widely
applauded, the arrest reportedly came while the leaders were
in Mexico City for negotiations with the Secretary of
Government. The GOM's willingness to arrest its negotiating
partners may complicate future efforts to bargain with the
Oaxaca protesters -- and with other protest groups.

An Early Effort to Combat Drug Trafficking
--------------


6. (U) The Calderon administration's unveiling of a major
anti-crime offensive in Michoacan suggested the new
administration would waste no time in confronting what many
believe is Mexico's single greatest challenge, drug
trafficking and the violence associated with it. The GOM
initiated the joint military-police operation on December 8,
sending nearly 7,000 troops and federal police (PFP) forces
to the troubled state. Their mission is to eradicate drug
plantations, intercept drug cargos and wanted criminals,
execute arrest warrants, and dismantle points of drug
retailing.


7. (C) In a December 13 meeting with emboffs, newly-appointed
Secretary of Public Security Genaro Garcia Luna said the

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operation's underlying goal was to wrest sovereignty back
from the drug cartels over expanses of Michoacan. He assured
emboffs an on-going security presence would be maintained
there, but he had no concrete response when asked what would
happen if/when the bulk of federal forces finally left.

GOM Already Claiming Victory...
--------------


8. (U) On December 18, the GOM held a press conference to
trumpet the success of Operation Conjunta Michoacan (OCM),
claiming it had dealt the drug trade a major blow. GOM
officials announced the arrest of three leading drug
traffickers from the Sinaloa, Valencia and Gulf cartels, as
well as the arrest of 54 other suspected criminals; the GOM
also claimed it caused an estimated USD 620 million in losses
to the drug trade. This figure reportedly includes the value
of destroyed crops and intercepted shipments, and the
confiscation of equipment and cash. The GOM has said the
counter-narcotics operation is being expanded to other
states, including Guerrero and Jalisco.

...A Claim Disputed by Observers
--------------


9. (C) While few observers have openly criticized OCM -- most
believe it was long overdue -- some predict it will inflict
but a glancing blow on the cartels. One security analyst
told poloff that much more could be accomplished with
small-scale intelligence operations; he surmised that the
politically connected cartels had anticipated or were
informed of the crackdown and took evasive action. Ernesto
Lopez Portillo, President of the Institute for Security and
Democracy (INSYDE) think-tank, told poloff that the OCM in
many respects resembled the huge initial deployment of troops
and police by the Fox administration against the drug gangs
in northern Mexico, a strategy that brought mixed results.

MEXICO 00007033 003 OF 004




10. (C) CIDAC analyst Sabino Bastidas criticized the GOM for
promising to deliver more through OCM than it could possibly
achieve and for inflating the results that it actually
achieved. (He added that if OCM really inflicted the claimed
USD 620 million damage on the cartels in just one state and
in little over one week, it suggested that the scope of the
drug problem is even greater than expected.) He concludes
that OCM was designed more for appearances than for impact.


Southern Border Initiative
--------------


11. (U) On December 14, while on a visit to Chiapas,
Calderon announced a new policy that would increase controls
along the southern border. The new enforcement measure will
be a joint effort between state and federal agencies and is
intended to reduce organized crime, drug trafficking, and
illegal immigration. Calderon said that his strategy will
have five elements: (1) protecting immigrant rights; (2)
facilitating documentation; (3) strengthening entry/exit
controls and combating corruption in the immigration
services; (4) modernizing infrastructure; and (5)
guaranteeing the safety of residents.


12. (C) Comment: It is significant that Calderon's two
early law enforcement initiatives (OCM and the Southern
Border Initiative) are in states run by PRDistas. Chiapas
Governor Juan Sabines was one of the first leading PRDistas
to recognize Calderon as president. Michoacan Governor
Lazaro Cardenas (PRD) also has expressed a willingness to
work with Calderon and his support for OCM. We believe these
two initiatives are intended in part to demonstrate that he
will help PRD governors who work with him. End comment.

Presiding Over a Manageable Budget Debate
--------------


13. (C) Several contacts have opined that Calderon's early
interactions with the Congress reflect a far greater degree
of political acumen and engagement than seen in his
predecessor. Notwithstanding the inevitable controversies
surrounding certain elements of the administration's revenue
and expenditure bills (refs B and C),the process to date has
been less antagonistic than many expected, given the
conflictive political climate here. Francisco Guerrero
characterized the complaints over the proposed education
cuts, for example, as "noise," noting that every budget
contains controversial provisions, and that a compromise
would ultimately be struck. In fact, on December 18, the
Chamber of Deputies unanimously approved the administration's
revenue bill with few changes. The Senate ratified the
revenue bill on December 20, however, it rejected a provision
calling for a 5-percent tax on soft drinks, meaning the lower
house will now have to vote again on this provision.
Guerrero acknowledged that the expenditure bill would
undoubtedly face more opposition than the revenue bill; he
said if the Congress managed to approve it before Christmas,
it would reflect well upon legislative-executive relations.
Guerrero noted that Calderon has displayed a welcome
willingness to negotiate contentious points, and the press
has pointed out that Calderon personally telephoned a number
of legislators to press his case, a tactic eschewed by the
Fox administration. As reported in ref D, Calderon's finance
secretary, Agustin Carstens, has also made a good impression

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on members of Congress during the budget negotiations,
demonstrating openness and accessibility.

The Critics Are Not Entirely At Bay
--------------


14. (C) While the majority of our contacts evaluate
Calderon's early actions favorably, he has not escaped
criticism. Two of our contacts have expressed concern that
the OCM, the arrest of Oaxaca protest leaders, and the very
appointment of the controversial Francisco Ramirez Acuna as
Secretary of Government (ref D),suggest Calderon seeks to

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govern as an old-style Mexican authoritarian, favoring
law-and-order over civil liberties. Others have complained
that the OCM and the arrest of Oaxaca protest leaders is as
much about public relations as it is about law enforcement.


15. (C) Some contacts were cynical about Calderon's budget

MEXICO 00007033 004 OF 004


proposals. Sabino Bastides said Calderon's decision to cut
senior executive branch salaries by 10% was little more than
a populist measure aimed at co-opting the supporters of
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who had proposed an even greater
salary cut during the presidential campaign. Bastides also
complained that the administration greatly exaggerated the
amount of money to be saved by the salary cuts, adding that
Calderon's decision to raise military wages reflected his
dependence on the support of the security forces, which he
called a sign of political weakness.

Comment: Playing By A Different Set Of Rules
--------------


16. (C) Calderon's early tactics suggest that he plans to
play by a different set of rules than his predecessor,
bringing much needed energy, engagement and political acumen
to the presidency. Certainly we are heartened that he has
demonstrated a willingness to use the full authority and
resources of the presidency in the war on drug cartels, even
if it remains unclear whether his earliest tactics will
produce results. Likewise, his willingness to personally
engage with the legislative branch during the budget process
reflects a welcome improvement on former President Fox's
disengaged relationship with Congress. Notwithstanding the
positive impression left by Calderon's early actions,
however, it would be unrealistic to expect this
administration to enjoy smooth sailing. Mexico's new
president faces an array of political risks and
vulnerabilities that would challenge even the most skilled of
political operators.


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