LOPEZ OBRADOR REVEALS SOME NAMES FOR HIS POTENTIAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 000680

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC
STATE PASS USAID FOR LAC:MARK CARRATO
TREASURY FOR IA MEXICO DESK: JASPER HOEK
COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/NAFTA: ANDREW RUDMAN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV PGOV PINR MX

SUBJECT: LOPEZ OBRADOR REVEALS SOME NAMES FOR HIS POTENTIAL
FUTURE CABINET

REF: A. MEXICO 618

B. 05 MEXICO 6432

C. 05 MEXICO 2800

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Leading presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador (AMLO) revealed the names of three key potential
cabinet members on January 30, in an attempt to calm fears
that his economic and foreign policies would be too radical.
AMLO said his economic advisor, Rogelio Ramirez de la O (ref
B),would be in charge of "economic issues," leaving it
unclear as to whether that would be as Secretary of Finance
or Economy. AMLO said Juan Ramon de la Fuente, currently
the president of the National Autonomous University of
Mexico, would be his Secretary of Government, and Jose Maria
Perez Gay, a writer and journalist and his foreign affairs
advisor, would be his Foreign Secretary.

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RAMIREZ DE LA O FOR FINANCE?
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2. (SBU) In a January 30 interview with Televisa, AMLO said
he would designate Rogelio Ramirez de la O to "oversee
economic issues." The press has taken this to mean that
Ramirez de la O would be AMLO's Finance Secretary. However,
it seems more likely that Ramirez de la O would be AMLO's
Economy Secretary. Ramirez de la O, who has a PhD in
economics from Cambridge, has for years run a private
consulting firm, Ecanal, that specializes in advising major
corporations operating in Mexico. Although many analysts,
as well as Mexican and foreign investors, respect Ramirez de
la O and see him as a shrewd social and economic thinker,
they don't see him as a future Finance Secretary given his
lack of experience in public finance. (Secretary of Finance
Francisco Gil Diaz nevertheless gave his vote of confidence,
saying Ramirez de la O would be a good candidate for the
Finance job as "he is a serious person, a responsible
finance man and capable of assuming such a role.")


3. (SBU) Some AMLO critics believe Ramirez de la O would be
an ideal candidate to occupy Eduardo Sojo's current position
as coordinator of public policies in the President's staff.
In that role, Ramirez de la O could more directly influence
and moderate AMLO's economic policies. Ramirez de la O
could serve as an important bridge between AMLO and the
business community, helping to lower the latter's distrust
of the populist candidate. Ramirez de la O is also well-
respected in political circles.

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HEAD OF UNAM TO GOVERNMENT SECRETARIAT
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4. (SBU) In the same interview, AMLO said he would choose
Juan Ramon de la Fuente, the rector (president) of the
National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM),as his
future Secretary of Government (in charge of domestic
security issues, migration, and the Mexican intelligence
service, among others). De la Fuente served from 1994 to
1999 as Health Secretary under former President Ernesto
Zedillo. He has been UNAM's rector since 1999, beginning
his second 4 year term in 2003. De la Fuente was close to
former President Zedillo as part of a group of advisors led
by Francisco Labastida, the Institutional Revolutionary
Party (PRI)'s 2000 presidential candidate. The same group
in 2005 proposed de la Fuente as the PRI's alternate
candidate for the 2006 presidential elections. De la Fuente
gained AMLO's confidence when he defended him during the
"desafuero" process (ref C). De la Fuente is a psychiatrist
by training.

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PEREZ GAY FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS
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5. (SBU) Jose Maria Perez Gay (pronounced "Guy"),AMLO's
current foreign policy advisor, who served as Ambassador to
Portugal at the beginning of the current administration
thanks to his ties to former Foreign Affairs Secretary Jorge

MEXICO 00000680 002 OF 002


Castaneda, would be Secretary of Foreign Affairs should AMLO
win. Perez Gay is a well-known writer and journalist.
Although he has served as the cultural attache at the
Mexican embassy in Germany and as the cultural counselor at
the Mexican embassies in Austria and France in addition to
his stint as Ambassador to Portugal, he is not a career
diplomat and does not have much experience in foreign
policy. Perez Gay has been inconsistent in his
pronouncements regarding the relationship with the U.S.,
saying that the migration issue should be dealt with both
"later" and "urgently." He has said his priority is to "go
back and restart Mexico's relations with Latin America."
Perez Gay has been a constant critic of globalization and
neoliberalism's "failure." His support of AMLO partly
results from his affiliation as a writer for the leftist
daily newspaper La Jornada, which supports AMLO. Perez Gay
has a degree in Information Technology Sciences from the
Iberoamericana University (Mexico) and a PhD in German
studies from the University of Berlin.

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MADRAZO AND CALDERON'S RESPONSE TO AMLO
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6. (SBU) After AMLO revealed his picks, Felipe Calderon, the
candidate for the National Action Party (PAN),called AMLO
inconsistent for inviting to his cabinet people he had
previously accused of being too close to the PRI. Calderon
said he would not yet name is own cabinet, but would focus
on identifying the problems that needed to be solved, and
then look for the best choices to deal with those issues.
On the other hand, Madrazo chose to follow AMLO's lead and
said he would consider his current economic advisor, Jose
Chavez Presa, an economist and former legislator, for
Secretary of Finance if Agustin Carstens, former

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Undersecretary of Finance and current Deputy Managing
Director at the IMF, decided to remain in his job in
Washington. Other names Madrazo has mentioned as potential
cabinet members are Rosario Green, currently the PRI's
General Secretary, and Senator Enrique Jackson.

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COMMENT
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7. (SBU) Maintaining a solid lead in the polls (ref A),AMLO
has used Ramirez de la O as his link to the economic center,
while campaigning on promises to govern for Mexico's poor.
It remains to be seen how closely AMLO will follow Ramirez
de la O's advice. A major daily has already written of the
discrepencies between various statements made by AMLO and
those of Ramirez de la O on economic issues. Ramirez de la
O is now in the position of not only advising his boss, but,
as AMLO's most public economic advisor, of defending AMLO's
pronouncement's, even if AMLO goes off-message. Although de
la Fuente is respected enough to have been considered by
several political parties as an alternate presidential
candidate, many are not sure how well a psychiatrist will be
able to handle very tough domestic security issues. As the
leader of UNAM, one of Mexico's most prominent leftist
institutions, a behemoth with tens of thousands of Mexico's
future leaders and voters as students, de la Fuente
represents an important base of support for AMLO's political
campaign as well as for his own political ambitions.
Whether Perez Gay's pronouncements against neoliberal
policies and globalization are genuine or just rhetoric is
an open question given his support for former President
Salinas, a major proponent of globalization. None of the
three are radicals. End comment.
GARZA