THE RADICALIZATION OF AMLO?

84372
2006-11-04 01:57:00
06MEXICO6278
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL
06MEXICO5992
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FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
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TAGS: ECON FBI DHS PAS DAO CONS OPAD DCM POL AID
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 006278

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016
TAGS: ECON FBI DHS PAS DAO CONS OPAD DCM POL AID
SUBJECT: THE RADICALIZATION OF AMLO?
REF: MEXICO 05992

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR ALAN MELTZER, REASON
S: 1.4 (B/D)

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) After virtually two weeks of silence, defeated
presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)
took a more radical line in a speech to supporters of the
Popular Assembly for the People of Oaxaca (APPO),backing the
protests in Oaxaca and criticizing President Fox's decision
to send in federal forces. He demanded Oaxaca Governor
Ulises Ruiz's resignation and the "withdrawal of army troops
disguised as police." He also linked the Oaxaca crisis to a
"PAN-PRI conspiracy" to put Calderon in office. As the first
high-profile political figure to stridently criticize the
deployment of federal forces to Oaxaca, AMLO's move will
likely deepen internal Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD)
fissures and heighten rumors of an AMLO-APPO union. Finally,
at first glance, it appears the "cabinet" AMLO announced on
November 3 is composed more of AMLO loyalists (and former
members of his mayoral cabinet) than PRD heavyweights,
offering additional evidence that the mainstream PRD
leadership may be trying to put space between the party and
its former candidate. End summary.

AMLO backs Oaxaca protests
--------------


2. (U) On October 31, AMLO delivered a well-received speech
to a Mexico City crowd of over 2,000 persons at a
pre-scheduled APPO rally, which was to be the starting point
for a march on Los Pinos. In his speech, AMLO called for the
removal of Oaxaca Governor Ruiz and described the
government's deployment of the PFP to Oaxaca as a "violent
military occupation" that would worsen the political and
social crisis in the region. He also called on the Senate to
use its powers to demand Ruiz's resignation. He accused the
PAN and PRI "mafia" of striking a deal to have Calderon sworn
in as President and said that the people of Oaxaca were
paying for this conspiracy with their blood. AMLO shared the
stage with APPO leaders, National Democratic Convention (NDC)
activists, and United Progressive Front (PRD-PT-Convergencia
coalition) politicians.

APPO support for AMLO?
--------------


3. (SBU) Oddly, an APPO announcer repeatedly interrupted the
speech of PRD co-founder Porfirio Munoz Ledo -- who preceded
AMLO -- calling on APPO supporters to begin their march to
Los Pinos. While many APPO supporters left during Munoz
Ledo's presentation, a sizable number remained to hear AMLO.
Local newspapers El Universal and Cronica reported that AMLO
had offered to APPO leaders help lead the march, but he was
"respectfully" turned down.


4. (C) PRD member Saul Escobar downplayed to poloff the
possibility that highly doubts that there would be a
convergence between APPO protests and AMLO's civil
disobedience activities. He told poloff that APPO was very
jealous of its independence and distrustful of political
parties and the APPO's goals and objectives were distinct
from those of the United Progressive Front. He said that in
any event, AMLO had other plans in mind. After announcing
his "cabinet" today (see below),AMLO will tour the country,
before returning to Mexico City by November 20 for his
self-styled "inauguration."

A Low Profile "Cabinet" for a High Profile "President"
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) Late on November 3, AMLO announced the members of
the "cabinet" that will support him during his so-called
"legitimate presidency." Its members include former SRE
Undersecretary (and Ambassador to Jamaica, Uruguay and
Norway) Gustavo Iruega as Secretary of Foreign Relations,
journalist and former Deputy Jose Agustin Ortiz as Secretary
of Political Relations, and at least a half-dozen former
Mexico City officials/AMLO loyalists. At first glance, it
appears there are few mainstream PRD heavyweights among the

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names, although respected AMLO advisors Rogelio Ramirez de la
O and Jose Maria Perez Gay will belong to a small,
presidential advisory council.

Comment: A Leader Looking for a Movement?
--------------


6. (SBU) Although it is too soon to draw any firm conclusions
about AMLO's latest tactics, it is curious that he decided to
make his first major public appearance at an APPO rally after
two weeks of self-imposed silence. One interpretation is
that in the wake of the defeat of his candidate in the
Tabasco gubernatorial race (reftel),he is increasingly a
leader looking for a movement, hoping to piggyback on APPO's
perceived momentum. His strident criticism of the deployment
of federal forces to Oaxaca, and his association with APPO,
suggests an increasingly anti-establishment tilt. If this
interpretation is correct, the PRD's day of reckoning may be
drawing nearer. Party moderates such as Zacatecas Governor
Amalia Garcia and Michoacan Governor Lazaro Cardenas, have
already opened lines of communication to the incoming
administration. Likewise, Chiapas Governor-elect Juan
Sabines (PRD) announced he would work with Calderon and would
not attend AMLO's November 20 "inauguration." With the most
moderate PRD leaders committed to working within the system,
and with AMLO operating increasingly outside of it, the day
on which mainstream PRDistas will be required to choose sides
may be drawing nearer.


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