GOM INTERVENES IN OAXACA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 006182

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV CONS MX
SUBJECT: GOM INTERVENES IN OAXACA

REF: MEXICO 5771


1. (SBU) Begin summary: The five month-old crisis in Oaxaca
reached a critical juncture October 29 with the deployment of
Mexico's Federal Preventive Police (PFP) to the embattled
state following three October 27 fatalities, including the
killing of American journalist Brad Will. This cable
assesses the immediate implications of the federal
intervention, how it might impact the balance of power
between the disputing parties, and possible scenarios for
Oaxaca's near-term future. The crisis is not over and, while
there have been only limited confrontations between
protesters and the PFP, the potential for violence will
remain high for the coming days. End summary.


2. (SBU) After months of resisting broad-based public calls
to intervene forcefully in Oaxaca, the Fox government decided
over the weekend of October 28 to deploy federal police to
the state capital in order to restore law and order. The
decision came in the aftermath of three killings October 27,
including of an American journalist caught in the cross-fire
between forces allegedly loyal to Governor Ulises Ruiz and
APPO protesters. Fox's decision to send in over 4,000
federal police to the state capital also came on the heels of
a vote taken October 26 by members of the state teachers'
union to return to class this week.

APPO Weakened by Intervention
--------------


3. (SBU) After six hours of slow and occasionally violent
retreat on October 29, APPO members withdrew from their
barricades and by nightfall had ceded the historic central
square which they had occupied for months. APPO reported the
death of a 15-year old boy, who had been guarding one of its
barricades, as a result of the federal intervention, as well
as the detention of 50 of its members. (Note: Some police
sources told the media the boy was killed by explosives he
had been handling. End note.) By October 30, the PFP
appeared to have complete control of key access points to
Oaxaca City and the Zocalo, while the APPO had retreated to
the local university to regroup.


4. (SBU) APPO is under increased pressure following the GOM's
removal of its encampments in Oaxaca City and the teachers'
decision to return to class. Organization leader Zennen
Bravo asked protest members not to confront the federal
police and has called instead for "passive mobilization." It
is not clear how much pressure the APPO can wield as long as
it is prevented by police forces from shutting off commercial
and government activity in Oaxaca City. As the teachers
return to school and citizens regain control of their city,
APPO members could feel increasingly isolated. On October
30, there were press reports that APPO members were
conducting marches back to the Zocalo, had established a new
encampment in Plaza Santo Domingo, and refused to continue
negotiations with the Secretary of Government in protest of
the PFP deployment. (Note: The U.S. Consular Agent's Office,
which faces Plaza Santo Domingo, was closed today. There
have been reports of clashes this afternoon between PFP and
APPO members in Plaza Santo Domingo. End note.) Teachers
did not return to school today as a consequence of the latest
events.

Ruiz Similarly in a Corner
--------------


5. (SBU) At first glance, the federal intervention takes the
heat off Ruiz by limiting the APPO's freedom of action in
Oaxaca City. Ruiz continues to insist that he will not leave
office and has the full backing of the PRI, at least until
December 1, which marks two years in office and the point at
which the PRI-controlled state congress would be able to name
a PRI successor as governor. Yet Ruiz will be badly damaged
by the events of the past few days, and it is hard to imagine
how he could return to office under "business as usual." An
investigation into the October 27 killings could find him
complicit, and there are early signs that paramilitary forces
loyal to him were responsible for that day's fatalities.
Whether or not he was behind the violence, his inability to
provide security and, now, the presence of federal forces in
the state capital are further proof of his inability to
govern Oaxaca.


MEXICO 00006182 002 OF 002



6. (SBU) On October 30, Mexico's Chamber of Deputies
overwhelmingly approved a resolution calling on Ruiz to
resign or request a leave from office in order to restore
peace and order in the state, with only deputies from the PRI
and the Green Party voting against it. There are some signs
that even Ruiz's support in the PRI is flagging: PRI Chamber
of Deputies leader Emilio Gamboa was quoted today as saying
that Ruiz needed to "make an act of conscience" and decide
whether he could continue to govern the state. (Note: Only
the national senate or state congress can vote to remove
Ruiz. End note).

Next steps?
--------------


7. (SBU) With only one death confirmed since the PFP
deployment to Oaxaca, the Mexican public will likely endorse
President Fox's decision to launch a federal takeover of
Oaxaca. Fox has said that the PFP will remain until order is
fully restored. There is no immediate pressure on the PFP to
withdraw, which should strengthen the GOM's hand in trying to
resolve the crisis. According to a well-respected professor
of law, the Mexican constitution is vague about the duration
of a federal intervention, but the cost of keeping the PFP in
Oaxaca for more than two months may be prohibitive, and the
GOM is likely to scale back its presence once the situation
has stabilized. The GOM will maintain the legitimacy of a
continued federal police presence if that presence remains
relatively peaceful and if the GOM successfully portrays this
as the only way to maintain order and guarantee the safety of
students and teachers returning to class.


8. (SBU) The GOM will need to affectively contain the
conflict. For months, one of the biggest worries about
Oaxaca's political crisis has been that it could spill over
to other areas of the nation. On October 29, APPO protesters
in Mexico City seized two buses and used them to block
traffic in the city center. The same day, a large PRD
motorcade filed through the capital's Zocalo festooned with
placards referencing the crisis in Oaxaca and calling for
Ruiz's resignation. However, although many Mexicans have
voiced support for Oaxaca's teachers, there are few outside
Oaxaca who have rallied behind APPO's radical tactics. In
fact, some PRD leaders joined their colleagues from other
parties to lend cautious support to the PFP deployment.
Rumors that the PRD will capitalize on the crisis or link in
some fashion to the APPO do not seem credible. That said,
failed presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
(AMLO) has criticized the federal intervention and called for
the removal of Ruiz.


9. (SBU) The Oaxaca crisis is complicated by the political
interests involved. Up until now, no actor has been willing
to assume the political costs of pressuring the ouster of
Governor Ruiz, which would serve to resolve the conflict.
Fox's refusal to intervene with force had been a source of
tension between the outgoing President and President-elect
Calderon, who does not want to inherit this problem. Now
that he has intervened, President Fox will need to pressure
parties to the conflict to reach a peaceful resolution as
well as hold Ruiz accountable for acts of thuggery committed
on his behalf (or at his behest). The events of October 27,
including the shooting of Brad Will, could well make it
easier for federal officials to build a case against Ruiz and
harder for the PRI to resist.


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