HOPE GROWS FOR A NEGOTIATED SOLUTION TO OAXACA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 005771

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MX
SUBJECT: HOPE GROWS FOR A NEGOTIATED SOLUTION TO OAXACA
CRISIS

REF: MEXICO 5567


1. (SBU) Summary: Recent developments in the Oaxaca crisis
point toward a possible easing of tensions and an eventual
political solution that would result in the return of law
enforcement to the state, an increase in teachers' salaries,
and the resumption of public school classes. A Senate
committee has agreed to pursue a process that could
conceivably lead to the dismissal of Oaxaca governor Ulises
Ruiz, taking some of the steam away from the state teachers'
union and Oaxaca People's Popular Assembly (APPO). However,
timing is vague and even if the committee recommends the
dissolution of the governor's powers there is no assurance
the full Senate would vote to remove him. In Mexico City,
thousands of Oaxacan protesters who arrived by foot on
October 9 have so far conducted a largely peaceful protest
directed at the Secretariat of Government and Senate. End
summary.


2. (SBU) On October 9, Secretary of Government Carlos Abascal
met with Oaxacan protest and state government leaders in the
eighth round of mediation efforts, announcing afterwards that
a tentative agreement had been reached regarding the return
of law enforcement to Oaxaca City. Although the protest
movement's diffuse leadership rejected the deployment of
Federal Preventive Police (PFP) to Oaxaca City, it appeared
open to lifting the blockades and ceding control of the city
to municipal and state police officers under the direction of
the Secretary of Government. Under the agreement, state
authorities would also release several jailed protesters,
withdraw arrest warrants for others, remove certain security
officials from office, implement a series of political
reforms, and raise teachers' salaries over time. The protest
leaders are scheduled to meet with their respective
constituents in Oaxaca this week to decide whether to accept
the proposal and consider returning striking teachers to
class, perhaps starting next week.


3. (SBU) On October 10, Senate Interior Committee members
from the three major political parties met with APPO leaders
and agreed to send a delegation to Oaxaca to examine whether
the state government has lost its ability to govern. The
committee would technically be able to recommend dissolving
the governor's powers. However, a committee staff member
told Poloff that no date has been set for the delegation's
trip or the length of time it would take to issue the opinion
needed for the full Senate's consideration. In order to
remove Ruiz, the Senate will need to vote with a two-thirds
majority. Currently, the PRI faction is backing Ruiz, the
PRD is calling for his ouster, and the PAN appears divided on
the issue and could represent a swing vote. In response to
the committee's decision to examine governability in Oaxaca,
Ulises Ruiz announced he would no longer participate in talks
with the Secretary of Government.


4. (SBU) Comment: For the first time in the nearly five
month-old Oaxaca conflict, there is hope for a negotiated
solution, although we are not there yet. The Senate
committee decision to consider whether there are grounds for
removing the Oaxaca governor strengthens Abascal's hand,
although his latest proposal could stumble without greater
assurance that Ruiz actually will be ousted. The federal
government may well be biding its time, trying to energize
the negotiations without forcing Ruiz's removal before his
two year mark in office (Note: If removed before December 1,
state elections would be called, an outcome the PRI would
strongly resist, as they could open the door to the election
of a PRD governor. If Ruiz is removed after December 1, the
Congress would appoint his successor and a deal could be
struck assuring the appointment of a PRIista. End note). The
protest leaders can be expected to offer a counterproposal in
the coming days that will continue to demand Ruiz's removal,
and the process will likely inch slowly forward as the Senate
considers its next steps. It is a hopeful sign that the
teachers' union and APPO leaders are pursuing the governor's
removal through institutional means and that the Mexico City
protests have been largely peaceful. However, if the
protesters lose hope that the Senate will remove Ruiz, they
are likely to pursue more aggressive tactics, in which case
pressure on the federal government to intervene with force
will quickly mount.


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