APOCALYPSE NOT: AMLO ASSURES AMBASSADOR HE WILL

51272
2006-01-31 14:22:00
06MEXICO505
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL
06MEXICO251|06MEXICO255|06MEXICO505
VZCZCXRO7640
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #0505/01 0311422
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 311422Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8608
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
TAGS: MX PGOV PINR
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 000505

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT TO USAID FOR AA/LAC, DAA/LAC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2016
TAGS: MX PGOV PINR
SUBJECT: APOCALYPSE NOT: AMLO ASSURES AMBASSADOR HE WILL
HAVE A STRONG, SOUND ADMINISTRATION
REF: A. MEXICO 251

B. MEXICO 255

Classified By: Ambassador Antonio O. Garza Jr. for reasons 1.4 (B,D)

Summary


1. (C) On 01/23, presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador (AMLO) of the leftist-Democratic Revolutionary Party
(PRD) sat down with the Ambassador to discuss his proposals
on a number of key issues of interest to the United States.
Accompanied by his foreign policy advisor, Dr. Jose Maria
Perez Gay, and economic advisor, Rogelio Ramirez de la O,
AMLO spoke at length of his plan to stem the flow of
immigration to the U.S. through targeted economic programs in
return for a negotiated accord to "regularize" the status of
Mexicans living abroad. AMLO explained what Mexico's role in
the international arena would be under his presidency, as
well as his plans for major law enforcement restructuring in
order to combat narcotics and terrorist activity more
effectively. He also spoke about his campaign schedule and
what troubles he foresees in the coming months. Humble and
friendly, AMLO did not guarantee a victory come July, but
instead promised to continue working hard and plowing
forward. His promises, though lacking in details, show AMLO
is aware of common perceptions regarding his candidacy and
that he tried to ease our minds. He also set the groundwork
to seek U.S. assistance -- if elected -- to support several
of his main objectives. End Summary.

Taking Care of Business First, Migrants Later


2. (C) On 01/23, the Ambassador hosted the last of three
breakfast meetings with Mexico's top presidential candidates
(reftels). Assisting the Ambassador were PolCouns,
EMINCouns, and USAID Director. Fresh off of his morning
half-hour infomercial, AMLO arrived ready for an ample
discussion of key issues. After brief introductions by USAID
Director and EMINCouns, AMLO jumped right into the topic of
immigration. Stating that the rise in immigration was due
primarily to a lack of economic growth in Mexico, AMLO
proposed cooperation with the private sector and the U.S. on
economic development projects as the cheapest avenue for
stemming the flow of migrants, especially in Mexico's
Southeast where, AMLO said, the new wave of migrants was
originating. He described an economic plan, primarily made
up of large-scale infrastructure programs like highway and
housing construction and reforestation projects, that would
generate employment, spur economic growth, and eventually
give Mexico the necessary leverage to negotiate an
immigration accord to "regularize" the status of Mexicans
living in the U.S. In addition to private sector investment,
AMLO will seek U.S. assistance for financing and
accreditation from international institutions for his
projects so that they can continue long after his term is
over.


3. (C) The Ambassador proposed that AMLO look beyond the
economy when contemplating the immigration issue and focus on
other areas like education, which he stated was consistently
raised during his travels in the Southeast. AMLO agreed,
confirming that education was a problem everywhere in Mexico
but especially in rural communities.

Mexico Won't Join Regional Blocs


4. (C) The Ambassador asked AMLO about Mexico's role in the
region under his administration and what his position was on
Cuba, Venezuela and Bolivia. AMLO responded that the
situations in each of those countries were different because
of their varying economic issues, proposing that there is no
"one" Left and that we should not forget that Brazil,
Argentina and Chile were also considered "leftist"
governments. AMLO explained that Mexico would have a
measured, prudent foreign policy that would be an extension
of his domestic achievements. "We must strengthen Mexico
first," he said, calling for a less protagonistic role in
foreign affairs. The Ambassador explained that Mexico has a
role to play if it wants, that it is in position to keep
balance in the region, and that the sheer size of the country
and economy may demand a more active stance. AMLO admitted
that he would be open to cooperation with Central America but
that Mexico would generally not take the lead on multilateral
or international initiatives. He stressed he was not/not
interested in joining any "blocs", specifically Anti-American
or "Anti-Southern" (presumably anti-Mercosur) blocs. AMLO
finished by explaining that he does not particularly like to
travel and that he has never met Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro or
Evo Morales. He did mention, however, that he does know a
handful of other heads of state from his time as mayor of

MEXICO 00000505 002 OF 003


Mexico City. While AMLO made abundantly clear foreign policy
was not his priority, he also made clear the U.S. was a
special case.

Keeping the Peace, Together


5. (C) Drug consumption is on the rise, noted the Ambassador,
and counter-narcotic and counter-terrorism programs must be
important themes of Mexico's next administration. AMLO
agreed and told the Ambassador that both governments must
find ways to increase cooperation. AMLO then laid out his
two-fold plan for combating both issues. First, he said, he
wants to give the military more power and authority in
counter-narcotics operations because it is the least corrupt
of all of Mexico's agencies and can be the most effective.
He pointed out, however, that this would require a
constitutional amendment but felt strongly he could get it
done. He also explained that giving the military more
authority would limit Mexico's Prosecutor General's Office
(PGR),which AMLO considered too corrupt to have the lead on
counter-narcotics. The second part of the equation,
according to AMLO, was consolidating Mexico's law enforcement
and intelligence agencies back into the Secretariat of
Governance (SEGOB). He proposed doing away with the
Secretariat of Public Security and returning Mexico's Federal

SIPDIS
Police Force (PFP) and intelligence agency (CISEN) to SEGOB.
The plan, as AMLO stated, would help save money, cut agency
infighting, and give SEGOB a more prominent role on internal
issues.

Keep On Rolling Along


6. (C) AMLO appeared concerned about the campaign season that
lay ahead, stopping well short of predicting his own victory
in July. He plans to travel the entire country in three
stages in an effort to consolidate his base and attract more
independents. These would be the deciding votes, AMLO said,
and he currently holds more of them than any of the other
candidates. In addition, AMLO described his new daily
television program on TV Azteca as a major campaign
component. The half-hour show runs from 6:00 am to 6:30 am
Mondays through Fridays. The show will run every weekday
from now until the end of the campaign at a total cost of 20
million pesos (approximately 2 million USD). AMLO explained
that he would appear live on the show every Monday and
Tuesday and will have special guests appearing the rest of
the week.


7. (C) AMLO acknowledged the drawbacks of his two coalition
partners, as well as the weaknesses of his own PRD. While
public infighting between factions of the PRD's Mexico City
group undeniably reflected badly on him, AMLO said he was
nonetheless pleased with PRD candidate for Mexico city Mayor
Marcelo Ebrard. AMLO finished by telling the Ambassador he
would like to continue meeting with U.S. officials and that
he wants the Embassy ready to sit down and discuss areas of
cooperation immediately after the elections if he should win,
emphasizing that he would not wait until January 2007 to
start organizing his new government.

Comment


8. (C) Although lacking in concrete details, AMLO appears to
be working toward putting the right pieces in place for a
strong government. The effectiveness of his government,
however, will require the U.S. playing a key role in his
programs. On every issue raised, AMLO expressed his desire
for new or increased cooperation. This, in addition to an
increase in private sector investment, is relevant because
AMLO proposes cutting government spending while increasing
social programs. The emphasis on U.S. development and
financing assistance is a clear sign his government cuts will
not be enough to pay for his social programs and that an
influx of funding from alternate sources are necessary. It
was also apparent that AMLO has not thoroughly thought
through his economic/migration plan. AMLO,s concentration
on infrastructure projects as the key to spurring growth and
employment overlooks many other economic areas that need
attention by the next government if the desired results are
to be obtained. He believes creating jobs in Mexico and
stemming the flow of migrants moving North is just the olive
branch needed to negotiate a "regularization" or amnesty of
those Mexicans already there. Poloff met with AMLO's
campaign coordinator the following day (septel) and explained
that immigration policy was a domestic, congressional affair
and that Mexico's role should be geared more toward
controlling its border and emphasizing all legal migration
tools. An experienced politician, AMLO geared his discussion
to his audience, showing his willingness to discuss the
difficult issues and appearing open to our suggestions. End

MEXICO 00000505 003 OF 003


Comment.


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