Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MEXICO5005
2006-09-05 22:57:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Mexico
Cable title:  

IT'S OFFICIAL: CALDERON DECLARED PRESIDENT-ELECT

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR MX 
pdf how-to read a cable
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 005005 

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y
FOR CLASSIFICATION MISMATCH IN PARA 6 - CHANGED TO (U)

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: IT'S OFFICIAL: CALDERON DECLARED PRESIDENT-ELECT

REF: MEXICO 4368

MEXICO 00005005 001.2 OF 002


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 005005

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y
FOR CLASSIFICATION MISMATCH IN PARA 6 - CHANGED TO (U)

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: IT'S OFFICIAL: CALDERON DECLARED PRESIDENT-ELECT

REF: MEXICO 4368

MEXICO 00005005 001.2 OF 002



1. (U) Summary: On Tuesday, September 5, the Mexican
Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF) declared Felipe Calderon
President-elect, ending rival candidate Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador's (AMLO) two month-long legal challenge of the
election results. In a unanimous decision, the seven
magistrates acknowledged various irregularities in the
election process, most notably the improper intervention of
President Fox in the campaign, but said these irregularities
taken together provided insufficient grounds to invalidate
the election. Tallying up the final vote total, the TEPJF
found that Calderon won by a margin of 233,831 votes (0.56%)
of the 41.6 million cast. While the magistrates announced
their decision, several hundred angry AMLO supporters noisily
protested outside, preventing attendees from leaving for a
short time following the hearing's conclusion. The TEPJF,s
decision was widely expected and represents the closing act
in AMLO's legal challenge. Meanwhile, AMLO's extra-legal
challenge shows no signs of waning. End summary.

Calderon By A Nose
--------------


2. (U) In its decision, the TEPJF stipulated the final vote
tally, taking into account the precincts it annulled in its
August 30 decision due to irregularities, and the results of
the August 9-14 recount (reftel). The final results showed
Calderon with 14,916,927 votes, compared with AMLO's
14,683,096, for a difference of 233,831 votes or 0.56%. The
recount shrunk Calderon's margin of victory by a bare 0.02%.

Fox Comes In For Criticism
--------------


3. (U) After the TEPJF Secretary read the proposed decision,
each of the seven magistrates spoke in turn, explaining their
reasons for supporting it. All agreed that while the
election process had imperfections -- most cited President
Fox's oblique endorsement of Calderon and criticisms of AMLO
during the campaign, as well as the pro-Calderon advertising
of some business groups -- all concluded that these actions
were not sufficient to undermine the overall integrity of the
election. Addressing herself to the Mexican public,

Magistrate Alfonsina Berta Navarro Hidalgo, one of the two
authors of the final decision, observed that no election was
perfect and that even the improper actions of a single person
could damage the process. She added, however, that annulling
an election was an extraordinary remedy appropriate only in
exceptional circumstances, when a complainant had clearly
proven major irregularities that had a transcendental effect
on the outcome of the election. She concluded that while
there were a number of irregularities in this election and
that no party was entirely guilt-free, the irregularities
were not sufficiently serious to undermine the election's
overall integrity.


4. (U) Magistrate Eloy Fuentes Cerde, the other co-author of
the decision, noted the contradiction in AMLO's alternate
demands for a nationwide recount and the annulment of the
entire election. Likewise, he noted the inconsistency of the
Party of the Democratic Revolution's (PRD) acceptance of the
very favorable results of the congressional elections, while
protesting the unfavorable results of the presidential
election, when both elections were carried out on the very
same day and by the very same election workers. In an
oblique reference to President Fox and to those in the
business community who improperly sponsored ads critical of
AMLO, one magistrate said that while some citizens "did not
rise to the circumstances" of the moment, this campaign
nevertheless was cleaner than most. In a similarly oblique
reference, TEPJF President Leonel Castillo said he hoped
powerful political and economic actors would stay within
their proper role in future campaigns.

An Angry Crowd Awaits The Inevitable
--------------


5. (U) While the magistrates met before a packed courtroom,
hundreds of AMLO supporters protested loudly outside, with
the sound of numerous large firecrackers punctuating the
hearing. One protester threw an egg at the TEPJF, although
there appeared to be few other aggressive acts. A group of
protesters paraded in front of television cameras a coffin
with the word "democracy" painted on it, a prop that had been

MEXICO 00005005 002.2 OF 002


recycled from similar use in an earlier protest in Mexico
City's Zocalo (Central Square). The TEPJF security staff did
not permit anyone to leave the court premises for
approximately 40 minutes after the hearing concluded, until
the demonstrators calmed somewhat.

What's Next?
--------------


6. (U) Although the TEPJF's decision is not subject to
appeal, AMLO appears poised to set an unfortunate precedent,
being the first complainant in the TEPJF's 10 year history
not to accept a ruling. Within approximately the next 24
hours, the TEPJF will deliver to Felipe Calderon his
"Certificate of Majority," confirming his victory. The press
has reported that both Calderon and AMLO plan to offer public
remarks at 7:00 pm this evening, and that Fox plans to
address the nation at 8:30 pm. Los Pinos has announced a
meeting between Calderon and President Fox, scheduled for
10:00 am September 6.

Comment: Terra Incognito Ahead
--------------


7. (SBU) With the TEPJF's declaration of Calderon as
President-elect, AMLO has reached the final stop on the legal
track for challenging the election results. Yet his appetite
for protest appears far from sated. Whatever strategy he and
his supporters now embark on falls outside the bounds of
institutionality, and there is neither a political road map
nor an historical precedent to guide the way. The biggest
variable of all will be the extent to which AMLO continues to
maintain the PRD unified behind him. While he has been
remarkably successful in doing so up until now, with the
TEPJF's final decision, it will become increasingly difficult
for the PRD to continue to straddle the conflicting realms of
legality and extra-legality. Likewise, if the party aspires
to any role greater than that of a spoiler for Calderon's
agenda, it will have to distance itself from its defeated
candidate. Once he loses the support of his party, AMLO's
influence will inevitably wane.


8. (SBU) Finally, the TEPJF proved itself equal to the
demands of this important juncture. While it has been
reported that the magistrates themselves were not without
their differences of opinion, in this extraordinary moment,
they were able to put their differences aside and reach a
decision that all felt comfortable supporting. Although the
unanimity of the Tribunal's decision will be of no
consequence to AMLO's most diehard supporters, we believe it
will help restore the confidence of ordinary Mexicans in the
election process.


Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

GARZA