STRENGTHENING CALDERON'S WEAK HAND

76950
2006-09-01 12:01:00
06MEXICO4937
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL

R 011201Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2974
NSC WASHDC
INFO ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE


C O N F I D E N T I A L MEXICO 004937


STATE - WHA A/S SHANNON AND NSC - FISK FROM THE AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
SUBJECT: STRENGTHENING CALDERON'S WEAK HAND

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ANTONIO O. GARZA JR FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: In the coming days the Electoral Tribunal
(TEPJF) is expected to confirm National Action Party (PAN)
candidate Felipe Calderon's presidential victory, but the
protests will continue. Thwarted Democratic Revolution (PRD)
candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has already
promised to undermine Calderon at every turn, and will
determine his next steps during a September 16 "Democratic
Convention." Calderon has perforce been largely silent
throughout the TEPJF's deliberations, reflecting discipline
and patience, two qualities that will serve him well in the
difficult days ahead. Nevertheless, his razor-thin mandate
inevitably has been eroded by AMLO's harassment, by perceived
insults from his party's leadership, and by the cold shoulder
offered from President Fox. Calderon will have virtually no
"honeymoon," and will need strong support from the USG to
reinforce his agenda and leadership. I have already met with
him twice during the past several weeks to convey our
support, should his election be confirmed, as now appears
inevitable. I also have a private dinner scheduled with him
for September 19, at which time I will be able to reiterate
this support and address key transition issues. I recommend
that President Bush call Calderon with congratulations once
the election results are ratified, and that he invite
Calderon to visit with him at the earliest opportunity. I
will separately take Commerce Secretary Gutierrez up on his
offer to visit in late September/early October to offer a
hand of friendship to both departing President Fox and
President-elect Calderon. From the Embassy we will begin
vigorous transition planning across the board with the
Calderon team, starting with an early meeting with team
leaders Juan Camillo Mourino and Josefina Vasquez Mota. I
would like to strongly recommend that First Lady Laura Bush
lead a broad and representative U.S. delegation to Calderon's
inauguration as a key signal of the friendship and esteem we
hold for Mexico and President-elect Calderon. End Summary.

Bittersweet Victory


2. (C) The TEPJF is days away from an expected
ratification of Felipe Calderon as the President-elect of
Mexico -- but Calderon's victory is tarnished by the long --
and continuing -- electoral protests led by AMLO. The PRD
has already signaled it will make Fox's last "state of the
union" (informe) address a three-ring-circus of antagonism
September 1. AMLO will decide September 16 what his next
steps will be, but we can anticipate that from now through at
least inauguration day AMLO will spare no effort to embarrass
and insult Calderon. While AMLO's popular support may reduce
to a hard core of true believers, his constant barrage of
attacks against the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE),the
TEPJF, and against Calderon have taken their toll in the
public mindset. On July 2 Mexicans were sure of their
institutions, the credibility of the results, and the outcome
of 41 million ballots cast. Today the institutions and their
determinations are shadowed by doubt. Calderon has had to be
largely silent during the TEPJF's deliberations, leaving the
stage to AMLO's dramatic gesticulations.


3. (C) While Calderon's spokesmen have spoken out in his
favor, the PAN structure has done little to support the
putative President-elect. During the initial AMLO attacks
against Calderon, the PAN leadership literally went on
vacation. Most recently, party leaders handed Calderon a
very public series of defeats by putting his political
competitors in charge of the PAN factions in the Senate
(Santiago Creel) and the Chamber of Deputies (Hector Larios).
This means that Calderon will have to negotiate with his own
faction, in addition to the PRI's, to get reform initiatives
through the newly-constituted 60th legislature. President
Fox has made no secret of the fact that, while relieved AMLO
apparently didn't win, he has no love lost for Calderon.
Calderon, for his part, has reason to be irritated that Fox's
repeated failures to maintain what Mexicans consider an
appropriate distance from the election further clouded
Calderon's narrow victory.

Lost Honeymoon


4. (C) Given the turmoil surrounding the confirmation of
his election, the divisions within his party, and the legacy
Fox will leave, Calderon will come into office December 1 in
the weakest possible situation politically. We risk
stagnation on our highest-profile issues unless we can send a
strong signal of support, prompt the Calderon team into a
vigorous transition, and reinforce Calderon's agenda and
leadership. President Bush started us off well by
congratulating Calderon after the July 6 IFE declaration that
the PAN candidate had received the most votes. I recommend
that President Bush make a second call to Calderon once the
TEPJF results are released, offering formal congratulations
on his victory. At that point my mission team will engage
energetically with Calderon's transition team to invigorate
progress on our priority areas. I understand Commerce
Secretary Gutierrez is willing to make an early visit to
Mexico, and I will encourage him to do so in late September
or early October, as a first opportunity to signal our
respect for both outgoing President Fox and President-elect
Calderon. Finally, the December 1 inauguration will be the
moment Calderon supersedes the irritations AMLO has posed
these many months, and finally becomes President. I deeply
hope that First Lady Laura Bush will be able to lead a broad
and representative delegation of USG officials as a symbol of
our commitment to working closely with the Calderon team.
Her presence would unmistakably signal the President's
strong, personal support as the incipient Calderon
administration confronts an unusually challenging political
climate.


Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
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GARZA