ASSESSING OAXACA,S POLITICAL CRISIS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MEXICO 004619

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON ELAB PINR PGOV MX
SUBJECT: ASSESSING OAXACA,S POLITICAL CRISIS

REF: A. MEXICO 3962


B. MEXICO 4534

C. MEXICO 4535


1. (SBU) Summary: In the past week, the complex political
crisis in Oaxaca has worsened, with four people killed in two
separate incidents and protestors pledging to intensify their
civil disobedience campaign demanding that PRI Governor
Ulises Ruiz resign or be removed from office. Tension is
most severe in Oaxaca City, the center of the protest
movement, with other parts of the state less affected. As
the governor becomes increasingly isolated, his ability to
govern Oaxaca fades. Prospects for a negotiated solution in
the near-term have dimmed with local teachers' union leaders
refusing to meet with federal Secretary of Government
officials and saying they will only accept mediation from the
Secretary of Government himself. The ongoing crisis has led

SIPDIS
to a significant decline in tourist revenues and the
cancellation of the start of primary school this month. The
Oaxaca demonstrations appear unrelated to ongoing PRD
protests in Mexico City. End summary.

Background to current crisis
--------------


2. (SBU) Ulises Ruiz won the 2004 gubernatorial race by a
very narrow margin, beating a popular (including among
Oaxaca's sophisticated middle class) PRD-coalition candidate,
Gabino Cue. Many political observers consider that election
to have been fraudulent. Ruiz, a close friend of
presidential candidate Roberto Madrazo, followed a terribly
unpopular PRI governor, Jose Murat, into power. Many local
residents believe that rather than spend money on needed
economic programs, Ruiz directed public funds to the Madrazo
campaign. He operated in a manner that alienated much of the
already frustrated population, and as a result now finds
himself in a stalemate with an increasingly radicalized
protest movement.


3. (SBU) Rosanna Fuentes, editor of the Spanish edition of
Foreign Affairs magazine, told poloff that Ruiz failed to
incorporate into his program of government the grievances of
his opponent's constituents and was not politically skilled
to build the coalitions he needed to effectively govern. The
governor's miscalculation in using force against the
protestors on June 14 caused an acute backlash, with up to
3,000 members of civil society and radical organizations
joining the teachers' protest under the umbrella of the
People's Popular Assembly of Oaxaca (APPO) (reftel). What
was a routine teacher strike morphed into a broader,
politicized movement demanding the governor's ouster. A
Zapotec student told poloff that on June 14, "we learned we
could confront the government and hold our ground."

Protest's objectives
--------------


4. (SBU) The latest round of protests began in May as part of
a now-annual ritual in which state teachers demand improved
salaries and benefits, with protesters later adding the
demand that Governor Ruiz be removed from power. However,
the dissident teachers' union led by Enrique Rueda Pacheco
and organizations represented by the APPO are distinct.
Pro-democracy forces have been working for decades to wrest
control away from the PRI, and the Oaxaca protest is the
latest manifestation of this effort. Teachers, farmer
organizations, intellectuals, student groups, leftists, and
radicals have all come together under the banner of calling
for the governor's removal. Beyond this common cause, these
organizations have disparate interests, ideologies and
tactics.

Oaxaca's unfolding political crisis
--------------


5. (SBU) On August 17, doctors, nurses, and other health care
professionals in Oaxaca began a general strike of indefinite
duration. On August 13, an estimated 5,000 people conducted
a silent march through Oaxaca City, demanding justice in the
case of the unexplained murder of Jose Jimenez, husband of a
striking teacher, and reiterating their demand that Governor
Ruiz resign. On August 10, Jimenez was killed by gunmen
occupying a nearby building that was subsequently set on fire
by protestors. An APPO spokesperson blamed the governor for
directing the shooting, a charge which the governor's office

MEXICO 00004619 002 OF 004


has denied. Protestors held four people hostage following
the incident, accusing them of participating in the shooting.
On August 9, unknown gunmen killed three Triqui Indians,
including a 12-year old boy, believed to have been headed to
the Oaxaca City protests. The motivation of the killings is
not known, although many observers believe they were
associated with the unrest. Also on August 9, gunmen
attacked a local newspaper, Noticias, which has been critical
of the governor. Observers speculate this was done by
mercenaries loyal to Ruiz. On August 3, a driver was beaten
when he resisted the hijacking of his official vehicle, part
of a wider campaign to hijack public vehicles and threaten to
burn them in order to increase pressure on the governor.


6. (SBU) Last week's killings were the first in the three
month-old protest and appear to mark a serious escalation.
Until now, the demonstrations have been largely peaceful.
The protesters have sporadically shut down city streets as
well as the highways to Mexico City and the airport, blocked
federal and state government buildings, taken over the local
television station, and turned the normally picturesque
zocalo (central square) into a mass encampment. However, a
walk through the zocalo, where most restaurants have clients
and shops and street vendors have buyers, suggests that press
reports of vandalism and economic damage have been
exaggerated.


7. (SBU) The intensity of the protest ebbs and flows. In the
capital city, police are scarce -- perhaps intentionally, to
avoid possible confrontations with protesters -- and city
services have diminished. Tourists appear safe, but the city
center is uncomfortable to travel in. There were only a few
thousand protestors in Oaxaca City when poloff visited the
week of August 7, with most of the striking teachers having
left on vacation; although union leaders have asked them to
return, their numbers reportedly are much reduced from
earlier in the strike. While the protests have been focused
in Oaxaca City, union leaders have called for their extension
throughout the state. Every area of Oaxaca has been
affected, since the union's 70,000 teachers come from all
communities.


8. (SBU) A Mexican professor told poloff she believes 20-30
percent of the teachers are "true believers" in the protests.
However, many others lack enthusiasm for continuing the
strike, but have little choice other than do what they are
told by union leaders. The result: education at the
elementary and middle school levels has ground to a halt.
Students lost a month of school in May; with the ongoing
protests, they are missing the start of school in mid-August
with no assurance of when classes will resume. A
Oaxaca-based sociologist told poloff that while most Oaxacans
support the teachers' cause, some feel the teachers have lost
their way and question the union's methods, considered a
relic of the PRI era.

Extremist elements on both sides
--------------


9. (SBU) Militant elements on both sides of the conflict may
be willing to resort to violence, although they enjoy almost
no public support. Within the protest movement, a handful of
young anarchists (mostly students) have commandeered buses,
blocked roads, and are possibly responsible for burning
vehicles. There are also some militant peasant organizations
whose members have come to Oaxaca City carrying wooden clubs
and metal pipes for defensive purposes. On the
"pro-governor" side, local media organizations charge they
have been intimidated by mercenaries and other militants, who
some contacts speculate were also responsible for the August
10 killing of Jose Jimenez. Poloff also heard rumors that
former governor Jose Murat is involved in supporting various
militant groups. As a local journalist told poloff, "it's
easy to create chaos in this situation. If someone wants to
act violently, there's no one to stop them."

An isolated governor
--------------


10. (SBU) Amidst the ongoing protest, contacts told poloff
that the governor has lost legitimacy and faces an
increasingly desperate situation. The academic dean of
Oaxaca's Benito Juarez Autonomous University said that Ruiz
is isolated and looking for a way out. He doesn't want to
resign, but his ability to govern is greatly diminished and

MEXICO 00004619 003 OF 004


it appears increasingly unlikely that he will regain his lost
authority. Because protestors have blocked the governor's
office, Ruiz and his staff are now working out of a hotel.
Some observers were surprised that he hasn't resigned yet and
suggest he could order forceful action against the protestors
in the coming days with the goal of provoking federal
intervention. A Oaxaca-based journalist speculated that, in
the current highly-charged environment, Ruiz's physical
security could even be under threat.


11. (SBU) The following scenarios are possible if the
governor steps down or is removed from office. If Ruiz
resigns before December (before his two year mark in office),
then the PRI-controlled state congress would appoint an
interim governor and call for a new election; given the
current political climate, a PRD-candidate would probably
win. If Ruiz resigns after December, the state congress
would vote for a new governor -- likely a PRIista -- to
complete his term (Note: the PRI holds 23 out of 42 seats in
the state congress. End note). Alternatively, the federal
congress could vote to remove Ruiz from office and then
choose his successor. Under this scenario, observers suggest
that the PRI and PAN might work out a deal for the successor
to be a PRI governor in exchange for PRI cooperation in the
national congress. Another option would involve Ruiz asking
for a leave from office, in which case an interim governor
would be named, elections would not be held, and the congress
would choose a successor in December to complete Ruiz's term
if he did not return from leave.

Dim prospects for a negotiated solution
--------------


12. (SBU) There are few signs of progress at the state level
toward a negotiated solution to Oaxaca's political crisis.
Each side has hardened its respective position, complicating
the chance for a settlement. Previous mediation efforts have
failed. The leaders of the protest movement say they will
accept nothing less than the governor's resignation or
removal from power; meanwhile, the governor has offered no
indication he would step down. The key actor may be the
federal government, which until now has wisely refused to
intervene militarily and has called instead for a political
settlement, even if it has been slow to respond on a
political level. Local teachers' union leaders have rejected
a meeting with a visiting delegation of federal Secretary of
Government (SEGOB) officials, saying the offer comes too late
and that they will only accept mediation from the Secretary
of Government himself, the Office of the President, or the
National Senate. Mediation by the federal government would
bring the best hope for a negotiated solution.

Little connection to Mexico City sit-in
--------------


13. (SBU) The Oaxaca situation has its own dynamic,
objectives, and leadership distinct from the PRD protests in
Mexico City, although the local PRD is lending moral and,
allegedly, financial support. The teachers union and APPO
are "extra-party" organizations whose main grievance has been
with Governor Ruiz and the PRI, not the PAN, which has a
limited presence in Oaxaca. They successfully mobilized
during the recent elections to oust the PRI from much of the
state's government. However, most Oaxacan protestors are
part of social movements generally suspicious of electoral
politics. A professor at UNAM said that while he doesn't see
a connection between the Oaxaca and Mexico City protests,
"both situations reveal the failings of the present
governments (state and federal) to satisfy the basic demands
of the poor."

Economy suffers
--------------


14. (SBU) The Mexican Employers Federation estimates that
tourism to Oaxaca is down 75 percent as a result of the
ongoing protest, with revenue loss estimates varying from
$45-$60 million. Some of this loss has been generated by an
exaggerated media reaction. An AP story that erroneously
reported that checkpoints had been set up for tourists
probably cost Oaxaca City millions of dollars in lost
tourism. While Oaxaca City has been hurt economically, the
informal economy has continued to function largely unaffected
by the strikes and the formal sector is treading water with
the continuing, albeit significantly reduced, tourist crowd.

MEXICO 00004619 004 OF 004


Since the teachers strike annually in May and June, those
months were not anomalies for Oaxaca's economy. However, the
continuation of the strikes hurt businesses badly in July,
when the annual Guelaguetza festival was cancelled. Apart
from nearby villages whose economies are connected to Oaxaca
City's tourism industry, the economy in the rest of Oaxaca
state, including coastal tourist resorts, appears largely
unchanged by the protests.

Comment
--------------


15. (SBU) Teachers union and APPO leaders have capitalized on
public resentment toward the governor following the events of
June 14. The protestors are angry and well-organized. This
staying power gives credibility to their stated refusal to
end the protest until Ruiz is out of office. Despite anger
toward the governor, most Oaxacans are accustomed to social
peace and many outside APPO and the teachers union want a
quicker resolution of the political crisis. The protestors
know they want Ruiz out, but an unanswered question is who
could unite the multiplicity of forces calling for his ouster
and replace him.


16. (SBU) Comment continued: While the movement to oust the
governor is statewide, prospects for violence are limited to
Oaxaca City and a few contested municipalities. At this
point, it is difficult to see an exit to this tense standoff.
The more radical of the protestors can be expected to
continue upping the ante until they provoke the governor's
departure or a military intervention. There are no
indications that Ruiz would be able to regain his ability to
govern by waiting this period out or using force to disperse
the protestors. An intervention by government forces could
easily result in bloodshed.


17. (SBU) Comment continued: There are few signs that Oaxaca
will become a "battleground" for the national elections
dispute. Popular support for AMLO and his electoral
challenge may be lending some energy to the broader Oaxaca
strike, but the connection remains hard to discern. If,
however, the national PRD party at the request of AMLO urges
nation-wide protests calling for a full recount, Oaxaca would
be one of the easiest areas to mobilize. As Oaxaca's protest
continues, it is the children of that state who have the most
to lose.


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