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Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MEXICO3879
2006-07-13 19:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Mexico
Cable title:  

AMLO'S FRIEND SPECULATES ON THE CANDIDATE'S

Tags:   PGOV  PINR  MX 
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VZCZCXRO8272
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #3879 1941917
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 131917Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2130
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1206
						C O N F I D E N T I A L MEXICO 003879 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR MX
SUBJECT: AMLO'S FRIEND SPECULATES ON THE CANDIDATE'S
POST-2006 PLANS

Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION LESLIE A BASSETT FOR REASONS 1.4
(B,D)



1. (C) Poloffs met early July 4 with Jose Maria Perez Gay,
a personal friend of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)
tapped to be Foreign Secretary if AMLO had won July 2. Perez
Gay said he was perplexed by apparent inconsistencies in
preliminary numbers released by the Federal Electoral
Institute (IFE), and those doubts would not be assuaged by
the formal tabulation (released July 6 which confirmed that
National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon
received the most votes. The Electoral Tribunal must still
ratify the results). Asked about AMLO's somewhat intemperate
remarks at the Mexico City historic center late July 2, Perez
Gay dismissed our cautions, saying AMLO was reflecting both
his own emotions and the emotions of the crowd which saw
victory being stolen.



2. (C) While Perez Gay clearly had many questions about
IFE's conduct of the preliminary vote count and was already
well versed in the mantra of demanding a complete recount, he
also seemed ready to accept defeat. AMLO, he continued, saw
this election as the end of the line for him. If he didn't
win in 2006, AMLO wasn't going to hang around until 2012.
Perez Gay dismissed any notion that AMLO might launch a
foundation (a la Cuauhtemoc Cardenas) or look for a sinecure
inside the PRD, perhaps returning as party leader. More
likely, Perez Gay insisted, AMLO would retire to his parents'
old home in Palenque and consider his next moves from there.



3. (C) Comment: Perez Gay is an old friend of AMLO's and
not one of the PRD's most strident members. He forecast
AMLO's rejection of defeat but seemed to indicate AMLO had
limits as far as the struggle for victory went -- and the
Electoral Tribunal marks one of those limits. Press
reporting 7/13 indicate AMLO's national protest march has
gotten off to a slow start, with only hundreds rather than
thousands, marching towards Mexico City from the hinterlands.
Those who gathered in the Zocalo July 12 from Mexico City
were quickly if briefly disbursed by rain, and numbered less
than 10,000 as well. No doubt the PRD machine can bring in
vastly more over the weekend -- but it seems a spontaneous
uprising is far from probable.


Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

GARZA