SRE BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 003834

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MX
SUBJECT: SRE BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON ELECTION



1. (SBU) Summary: On July 7, the SRE held its second
post-electoral briefing for the diplomatic community. The
briefing was presided over by Foreign Secretary Derbez,
although Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) Counselor
Alejandra Latapi, one of the two IFE representatives in
attendance, led the presentation. Latapi used the event to
seek to refute the allegations of electoral improprieties
that have been raised by PRD candidate Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador (AMLO),including alleged manipulation of IFE's
preliminary vote count (PREP),and the exclusion of some
2.5 million votes from the PREP. Latapi defended the
transparency of the election process, reiterating that it
had been found to be free and fair by numerous domestic and
international observers. While the briefing was
well-prepared, detailed, and persuasive, it had a very
defensive tone, reflecting the pressure that IFE is under
to defend a process that has come under strident attack
from AMLO's supporters. End summary.


2. (U) On July 7, the SRE held a briefing for members of
the diplomatic community on the status of the Mexican
presidential election, including the allegations of
irregularities raised by AMLO. The briefing -- presided
over by Foreign Secretary Luis Derbez and conducted
principally by IFE Counselor Alejandra Latapi -- attracted
approximately 100 members of the diplomatic community,
including numerous ambassadors, reflecting the high level
of international interest in the process. Latapi's
well-organized briefing sought to forcefully refute the
most significant allegations of electoral irregularities
that AMLO has raised in the days since the July 2 election.

Why Did the Preliminary Vote Count Consistently Show
Calderon in the Lead?
-------------- --------------


3. (U) Latapi began the session by seeking to refute
AMLO's allegation that the PREP had somehow been
manipulated to show Calderon in the lead from the very
beginning of the count. Latapi explained that the PREP --
conducted between 20:00 on Election Day, July 2, and 20:00
on July 3 -- automatically recorded precinct results in the
chronological order in which they were received by IFE and
that there was no possibility for manipulating the count.
She added that in fact, the very first precinct results,
which IFE began to receive shortly after the first polls
closed on July 2 at 18:00 (Mexico City time),actually
showed the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in the
lead. Between approximately 18:30 and 19:45, the lead
changed several times among the three major parties.
However, by 20:00, when all polls across Mexico had closed
and the PREP became operational, Calderon had again taken
the lead in the count, never to relinquish it.


4. (U) Latapi explained Calderon's persistent lead by
noting that precincts located in northern Mexico and in
urban areas outside Mexico City -- Calderon strongholds --
generally delivered their tally sheets to local IFE offices
more quickly than precincts located in rural areas or in
Mexico City. PRD strongholds did not report in large
number until much later in the evening, by which time
Calderon had amassed a sufficiently large lead that he
never relinquished first place in the PREP.


5. (U) Latapi also noted that not all precincts reported
their results in time to be included in the PREP. In
particular, results from some remote areas were not
reported until after 20:00 on July 3 and therefore were not
included in the PREP, although they were included in the
official district count compiled on July 5-6.

How Did 2.5 Million Votes Go Missing?
--------------


6. (U) Latapi sought to refute the PRD's allegation that
IFE had "lost" over 2.5 million votes, insisting that the
manner in which IFE had handled these votes was consistent
with the procedure agreed to by IFE and the political
parties back in February 2006, and was completely
transparent. She explained that in February, the political
parties and IFE had come to an agreement that vote tallies
presenting certain specified types of inconsistencies would
not be included in the PREP, so as not to slow down the
preliminary count. Such tally sheets would be set aside in
a "file of inconsistencies," for closer review and eventual
inclusion in the official district-wide count. She
conceded that although IFE probably could have done a
better job of explaining this arrangement to the press,
these votes were at all times trackable on the PREP website

MEXICO 00003834 002 OF 003


and that the political parties were always well aware of
how they were being handled.


7. (U) Latapi explained that most of the vote tally sheets
in the "file of inconsistencies" reflected only minor
irregularities that had no effect on the vote count: of
the 11,184 precinct tally sheets included in the "file of
inconsistencies," over 8,000 of them involved tally sheets
in which the election workers neglected to record a "0"
where a particular party did not receive any votes (or
where there were no null votes or votes for unregistered
candidates). In other words, where the election workers
left a blank for a party or category receiving no votes,
rather than recording a "0," the tally sheet was added to
the file of inconsistencies, for tabulation later.

Why Did AMLO Lead the District Retabulation for the First
20 Hours?
-------------- --------------


8. (U) Latapi emphasized that during the official district
vote count conducted on July 5-6, IFE recorded returns in
the order in which they were reported by each of the 300
electoral districts. Latapi strongly implied, as post has
previously reported (reftel),that in addition to any
legitimate requests made by PRD representatives during the
district retabulation process for recounting the votes from
specific ballot boxes that presented inconsistencies, the
PRD representatives also appeared to intentionally engage
in dilatory tactics in precincts favorable to the PAN. As
a result, PRD strongholds reported their retabulated
results earlier than PAN strongholds, creating the
impression during much of the retabulation that AMLO was
ahead. She noted that notwithstanding criticism of the
PREP, this year the PREP proved even more accurate than in
the 2000 election: while the difference between Calderon's
margin in the PREP (1.04%) and in the final tabulation
(0.58%) was 0.46%, the difference between Fox's lead in
2000 in the PREP and in the final retabulation was 0.48%.

The Election Process Was Transparent
--------------


9. (U) Reiterating the transparency of the electoral
process, Latapi reminded the audience that Mexico's
political parties had observed and "accompanied" IFE in
every step of the process, from the preparation of the
voter registry to the counting of the ballots on Election
Day to the retabulation of votes by IFE's district
councils. She added that of the over 130,000 precincts
nationwide, 87% had the representative of at least one
political party present and over 78% had the
representatives of at least two parties present.
Approximately 15% of precincts also had non-party observers
present.

The Election Was Widely Found to Be Free and Fair
-------------- --------------


10. (U) Latapi emphasized that the election has been
widely recognized as free and fair by both domestic and
international actors and observers. She said that of
Mexico's eight political parties, five have recognized the
process as free and fair, with only the three members of
the PRD-led "Alliance for the Benefit of Everyone" refusing
to do so. Likewise, she noted that civil society
organizations including business groups, certain labor
unions, and the Catholic church have recognized that the
election was fair. She said that of the 26 election
observer groups working through the UN Development Program,
24 have recognized the process as free and fair. Finally,
she said that such foreign and international organizations
as the EU, the Council of Europe, the UN, the OAS, the
National Democratic Institute, the Interamerican Union of
Electoral Organizations, and groups of European and Latin
American parliamentarians, have all recognized the
transparency of the election.


11. (U) During a question and answer session at the end of
IFE's presentation, the Canadian Ambassador noted that the
media had reported a lot of inconsistent information about
the electoral process, and he recommended that in order to
prevent such misinformation from influencing public
opinion, that IFE be more proactive in communicating
accurate information. Foreign Secretary Derbez closed the
session by noting that he would look into the possibility
of organizing a briefing with staff of the electoral
tribunal, to clarify this process for the diplomatic
community.

MEXICO 00003834 003 OF 003



Comment: IFE on the Defensive
--------------


12. (SBU) Although the briefing was well-organized,
detailed, and persuasive, a defensive tone prevailed
throughout. The briefing left the impression that IFE
realized its reputation was at risk from persistent PRD
criticisms and that the time had come for it to begin
mounting a strident defense.


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