CALDERON DECLARED WINNER; AMLO TO CONTEST RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003747

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: CALDERON DECLARED WINNER; AMLO TO CONTEST RESULTS

REF: A. MEXICO 3700


B. MEXICO 3422

Classified By: Ambassador Antonio O. Garza for reasons 1.4(B/D).


1. (C) Summary: On July 6, the Federal Electoral Institute's
(IFE) district councils completed their retabulation of the
votes cast in last Sunday's election. The official results
show Calderon with 35.88% and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
(AMLO) with 35.31%, a margin of 0.57%. We understand that
the IFE General Council is to meet late July 6 to officially
announce this result. Even before the final votes were
retabulated, AMLO held a press conference to declare that he
would contest the results before the Federal Electoral
Tribunal (TEPJF) and called for his supporters to gather in
Mexico City's central plaza on Saturday, July 8, for "an
informational meeting." Contesting the results before the
TEPJF will not be easy for AMLO; Mexican electoral law
requires AMLO to identify and document irregularities or
errors on a precinct-by-precinct basis. Although the TEPJF
could order a vote-by-vote recount in particular precincts or
districts, or even annul the results of individual precincts
in the event of serious irregularities, a TEPJF contact has
told us that it would not order a nationwide vote-by-vote
recount. We believe it is unlikely that AMLO will be able to
identify enough serious irregularities in individual
precincts or districts to change the results of the election,
and we therefore believe his effort to challenge the results
is unlikely to prosper. The questions remain, however, just
how much support is he able to muster on the streets. End
summary.

And the Results Are In....
--------------


2. (U) On July 6, the IFE's 300 district councils completed
the process of retabulating the election results. The final
results showed Calderon with 35.88% and AMLO with 35.31%,
representing a slender 0.57% (236,000 vote) margin of
victory. This final result differed by only 0.06% from the
IFE's preliminary results (reftel),when adjusted for the
approximately 2.5 million votes the counting of which was
initially deferred due to inconsistencies. The IFE Governing
Council was scheduled to meet late today to announce the
final result. According to press reports, President Fox has
decided to accede to an IFE request not to make a public
statement on the final results.

AMLO Plans to Contest Election
--------------


3. (U) At 8:30 am local time, hours before the IFE finished
the retabulation, AMLO held a news conference to announce
that he did not accept the IFE's results and intended to
contest them in the TEPJF. He implied that the principal
basis of his complaint would be the failure of the 300 IFE
district councils to order a vote-by-vote recount of every
precinct. (Note: As noted in reftel, Mexican electoral law
only permits vote-by-vote recounts when particular
irregularities are identified; there does not appear to be
any legal authority enabling the IFE to order a vote-by-vote
recount absent such criteria. End note.) AMLO called the
retabulation process "not transparent" and characterized
IFE's decision not to permit a vote-by-vote recount as "not
independent." When asked about Calderon's statement early
this morning that it appeared the results of the retabulation
would favor him, AMLO said it was too early for Calderon to
proclaim victory. In a vague allegation of electoral
misconduct on the part of the PAN, AMLO added "they know what
they did."


4. (U) During his press conference, AMLO also announced that
he was convoking his supporters to an "informational meeting"
to be held at Mexico City's Zocalo on Saturday, July 8 at
5:00 pm. He said that he wanted to inform his supporters
directly of the situation, adding that while he and his
supporters would act "responsibly," they would defend the
"popular will."


5. (SBU) A PRD contact told poloff that Saturday's event
would not be a march or rally, but rather a meeting in which
the candidate can brief his supporters on irregularities in
the process and the reasons why he has chosen to contest the
election before the TEPJF. Enumerating examples of
irregularities, she said that in some precincts in the
pro-Calderon state of Jalisco, PRD party representatives had
been asked to leave voting stations before the vote count had
been completed, and that during the retabulation process,
some votes that previously had been counted as null votes in
fact were plainly marked for AMLO.


MEXICO 00003747 002 OF 002


AMLO Faces an Uphill Battle at the Tribunal
--------------


6. (C) A contact at the TEPJF explained to us that any
contest of the election results would have to be done on a
precinct-by-precinct (or district-by-district) basis. The
PRD could complain that the entire electoral process was
flawed to the point that voters' were unduly influenced and
the vote should be retaken, but TEPJF magistrates have
previously told us such a complaint is unlikely to prosper
(ref B). Our contact said that AMLO had until July 10 to
contest the result (assuming IFE makes its announcement of
election results on July 6). The TEPJF could order a
vote-by-vote recount in a particular precinct if there were
sufficient evidence of irregularities, although our contact
was quick to note that TEPJF would only consider such a
remedy when the irregularity potentially could affect the
vote count in the precinct. It would not order a recount
merely for errors in form, of which he expected there to be
many (e.g., where tally sheets were completed incorrectly).
In cases of serious irregularities, the TEPJF could annul the
results in a particular precinct. Nevertheless, given a
final vote margin of 236,000 votes, AMLO would have to prove
significant anomalies in hundreds if not thousands of
precincts to alter the result of the election. A PRD contact
told poloff that the PRD planned to argue before the TEPJF
that the restrictions on ordering a vote-by-vote recount,
referred to in paragraph 3 above, applied to IFE district
councils, but not to the TEPJF.

Comment: AMLO Keeping His Options Open
--------------


7. (C) By pledging to contest the results in the TEPJF,
while convoking a mass meeting in the Zocalo, AMLO apparently
wants to keep all his options open. The institutional route
-- contesting the results before the TEPJF -- is likely to
drag on for weeks or even months. As AMLO's team goes about
the mammoth task of putting its case together over the next
several days, it may become apparent to him that the
institutional route is unlikely to yield the desired results.
By convoking a mass meeting of his supporters on Saturday,
AMLO not only puts pressure on the TEPJF, but also gives him
the opportunity to test the level of commitment among his
supporters and to maintain their engagement.


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GARZA