ELECTION DAY IN MEXICO: NOT OVER YET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003676

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV MX
SUBJECT: ELECTION DAY IN MEXICO: NOT OVER YET

REF: A. MEXICO 3662

B. MEXICO 3422

C. MEXICO 3309

Classified By: Ambassador Antonio O. Garza, Jr. for reasons 1.4(b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: Election day was calm in Mexico, marked by
good turnout and an orderly process. But even a good process
does not always provide an immediate result with a closely
divided electorate. Electoral authorities insist the country
will have to wait for the July 5 official count to know the
winner. That could drag on into July 6 and maybe even July

7. Late July 2, the head of Mexico's Federal Electoral
Institute (IFE) urged the parties to wait for IFE to do its
job. President Fox delivered the same message. Within
minutes, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador reacted to these pleas
by declaring himself the victor, citing unnamed polls, and
promising to defend his victory. Felipe Calderon responded
with his own victory declaration, citing by name several
polls and results which showed him with a narrow lead.
Calderon paid more deference to IFE than Lopez Obrador, but
his message was equally clear. Preliminary results or PREP
(97.2 percent of polling stations reporting as of 12:30 pm
EDT July 3) show Calderon with a one point lead. If the July
5 official count mirrors this, we expect the race to be
challenged in the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF). End
summary.


2. (C) The Embassy fielded 92 observers on election day in 19
cities. Most of our observers were in Mexico City and the
cities where we have consulates, but we also sent observers
to potential trouble spots such as Oaxaca, scene of a
long-running, violent teachers' strike. We saw stronger than
expected turnout (probably just short of the 61 percent seen
in Mexico's historic 2000 election),and calm voters (with
the exceptions noted below). IFE claims it was able to
install all but eight of over 130,000 polling stations
planned.


3. (C) As in past elections, there were problems with polling
stations opening late. Although several of our observers
noted this problem, IFE showed us statistics indicating they
performed better in this regard than in 2003 or 2000. There
were scattered media reports of officials from all three
major parties violating election laws by suborning voters
with offers of goods or cash.


4. (U) Also as in past elections, there were problems with
"special" polling stations running out of ballots. Because
Mexico has no in-country absentee voting, its electoral laws
require that voters away from home on election day be allowed
to cast their ballots at designated special polling stations
(often in airports, bus stations, etc.). Because eligibility
for using a special polling station is defined broadly, a
voter can do it even in his hometown. To limit the
possibilities for fraud, the parties insist that IFE limit
the total number of ballots thus available (600,000
nationwide). Special polling stations in high demand areas
therefore see long waiting times for voters (several hours),
and they quickly run out of ballots, angering those who
arrive too late. Observers in Mexico City, Monterrey, and
Oaxaca saw spontaneous demonstrations at special polling
stations as a result of this problem. We do not yet have an
official estimate of how many were unable to vote because of
this problem.


5. (C) The last polls released before the election showed
Lopez Obrador and Calderon in a statistical dead heat, and
the exit poll results leaked to us during the day told the
same story. When the embargo on publishing exit polls ended
at 9:00 pm EDT, Mexican media outlets declined to release
their results. When the time came at 12:00 am EDT for IFE to
release its quick count results, its technical committee
said, and IFE head Luis Carlos Ugalde reported to the nation,
that the margin of error made it impossible to offer a
prediction. The PAN and PRD immediately began agitating for
the quick count results, but IFE refused to budge. Ugalde
praised the voters and election officials for what he called
an impeccable election day. He made clear that Mexicans
should look to July 5 and the official district by district
ballot count scheduled for that date. In so doing, he seemed
to tacitly dismiss the PREP system, into which IFE has poured
considerable effort. The PREP results (based on reporting of
the tally sheets from each polling station) continue to roll
in and suggest a very narrow Calderon victory, approximately
one percent, fewer than 400,000 votes. The July 5 count in
each of IFE's 300 districts, a formality in most elections,
has suddenly acquired enormous significance, and the normally
pro forma process of adding up polling station tally sheets
at the district level will surely receive greater scrutiny
from the parties than ever before. An IFE source told us the

MEXICO 00003676 002 OF 002


July 5 process could drag on into July 6 and maybe even July

7.


6. (U) Shortly after Ugalde and then Fox spoke, Lopez Obrador
addressed the cameras from his election night headquarters.
He professed respect for Mexico's institutions and for IFE's
eventual results, but then claimed he had won. He said he
had exit polls showing he was at least 500,000 votes ahead
and promised to keep the citizens informed. Recalling his
promise to respect the result even if he lost by one vote, he
called on the electoral institutions to respect "our results"
("nuestros resultados"). He then said that starting July 3
and in the coming days as this result was confirmed, he would
begin work with the various sectors of society on a national
agenda. He offered his hand to his opponents and called on
them to put Mexico's interests first. From there, Lopez
Obrador went to Mexico City's main plaza, the Zocalo, where
repeated his claim of victory based on exit polls and
regretted that IFE had not released results. He promised to
defend his victory and prevent anyone from erasing the
results. He said he would wait for the July 5 count and
urged his supporters to remain vigilant, promising that he
and his party would keep them informed. In a twist on his
campaign slogan ("smile, we are going to win") he ended by
saying "smile, we won."


7. (U) Shortly after Lopez Obador spoke, Calderon made a
televised address. He was careful to acknowledge IFE's
primacy in counting votes, but he then named several exit
polls and listed their results, all showing him with a narrow
lead. The PRI, represented by its president, had spoken
earlier in the evening and essentially disparaged all polling
and insisted that the country wait for the official results.
Despite the PRI's pleas, it appears that the PAN won
gubernatorial races in Guanajuato, Jalisco, and Morelos. As
expected, the PRD won the race for Mexico City mayor. The
PAN, at least so far, appears to be leading in the
congressional races, cutting into the PRI's numbers, although
no party will have a majority.


8. (C) Comment: Lopez Obrador's remarks were unhelpful.
Calderon at least had the excuse of being put on the spot by
Lopez Obrador, and he did express more respect for the
electoral authorities. There is a well-defined process here
(see refs b and c),and it is unfortunate that the leading
candidates have anticipated its outcome. The PREP results,
which should be complete July 3, will represent the outcome
in close to 100 percent of Mexico's polling stations as based
on the tally sheets from those stations. However, with
margins razor thin, even the PREP may not give us the answer.
In any case, IFE is moving with great caution, effectively
ignoring the PREP and trying to focus everyone on the July 5
ballot count which will take place in each of Mexico's 300
electoral districts. Completion of the July 5 count starts
the four-day clock for filing judicial complaints. In such a
close race, we should expect complaints. The TEPJF must rule
on those complaints not later than August 31 and declare the
presidential election results official not later than
September 6. Although the TEPJF has said it will try to rule
as quickly as possible, we may be in for a wait. We expect
the TEPJF to be reluctant to overturn the results of IFE's
July 5 count, but all signs now point to a painfully narrow
margin in that count, meaning that it will be difficult for
the TEPJF to apply its "no harm, no foul" rule to any
improprieties it might find.


9. (C) The immediate question is what Lopez Obrador will do
if the July 5 tally goes against him. His July 2 comments
calling on the authorities to respect his results and
promising to defend his victory suggest he will not go
gracefully. While we do not expect violence, large
demonstrations by Lopez Obrador's supporters are a distinct
possibility if the July 5 count does not go his way. In the
end, public confidence in IFE and the TEPJF, which polls
indicate is high, will be very important. End comment.


Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

GARZA