Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MEXICO3572
2006-06-27 21:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Mexico
Cable title:  

TEACHERS' STRIKE RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT VOTING IN

Tags:  ELAB MX PINR PREL PHUM 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #3572/01 1782141
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 272141Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1876
INFO RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1191
RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003572 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2016
TAGS: ELAB MX PINR PREL PHUM
SUBJECT: TEACHERS' STRIKE RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT VOTING IN
OAXACA

REF: A. 05 MEXICO 2700


B. MEXICO 3309

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR WILLIAM DUNCAN, REAS
ONS: 1.4(B/D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003572

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2016
TAGS: ELAB MX PINR PREL PHUM
SUBJECT: TEACHERS' STRIKE RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT VOTING IN
OAXACA

REF: A. 05 MEXICO 2700


B. MEXICO 3309

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR WILLIAM DUNCAN, REAS
ONS: 1.4(B/D).


1. (C) Summary: As Election Day draws near, public school
teachers in the state of Oaxaca remain on strike, with some
continuing to threaten to block voting unless a resolution is
reached by July 1. What began some five weeks ago apparently
as a routine labor action in pursuit of increased wages has
evolved -- in part due to the mishandling of the situation by
Oaxaca Governor's Ulises Ruiz -- into a broader protest
movement that more radical groups may be exploiting. The
Oaxaca teachers have occupied the city's central plaza as
well as certain public buildings; they also have organized
several mass marches, the fourth of which is planned for June

28. In a search for a resolution of the crisis, union
officials and Secretariat of Government (SEGOB)
representatives have begun negotiations with the
participation of a civil society mediation commission. The
GOM appears to be working hard to reduce tensions in advance
of the elections, and to the extent that those efforts remain
on track we believe the teachers' will seek to avoid raising
the stakes by interfering directly with the conduct of the
elections. Nevertheless, the situation remains volatile.
End summary.

From Strike to Social Movement
--------------


2. (SBU) Oaxaca's 70,000 teachers -- members of a dissident
faction of the national teachers' union (SNTE) -- began their
work stoppage five weeks ago in pursuit of higher wages.
According to embassy contacts, Oaxaca Governor Ulises Ruiz
(PRI),a close ally of PRI presidential candidate Roberto
Madrazo, initially neglected to seriously address the
teachers' demands, arguing that the state lacked the funds to
meet them. He accused SNTE national leader Elba Esther
Gordillo, Madrazo's bitter political rival (ref a) of
fomenting the crisis.


3. (U) The situation took a dramatic turn for the worse in
the early morning hours of June 14, when Governor Ruiz

ordered security forces -- including some firing tear gas
from helicopters -- to dislodge the protesters from the city
center. With teachers resisting the effort, up to ninety
persons on both sides were wounded. Although the teachers'
were briefly expelled from the city center, they soon
returned. In a show of solidarity against the Governor's
heavy-handed action, a number of civil society groups have
joined the teachers, who now demand Governor Ruiz's
resignation as an additional condition for ending their
strike. Protesters intermittently have blocked highways into
Oaxaca as well as access to the airport, in addition to key
public buildings, including the local office of the Federal
Electoral Institute (IFE).


4. (U) Raising the stakes, the union threatened to disrupt
the July 2 presidential election in Oaxaca. Although some
union members subsequently soft-pedaled this threat, union
leader Enrique Rueda Pacheco recently refused to rule out
such a measure. In any case, union members have decided to
remove notices posted in public schools giving the addresses
of voting stations and have threatened to prevent any voting
stations from being installed in buildings they control,
including public schools. Local election officials are
seeking to relocate voting stations, and according to press
reports IFE plans to send senior officials to Oaxaca to
monitor the voting.


5. (U) In an attempt to defuse the situation, the Fox
Administration dispatched a senior SEGOB official to Oaxaca
to negotiate with the teachers. At the insistence of the
teachers, a four member, civil society commission has been
established to mediate the negotiations. The commission
includes the Archbishop of Oaxaca, Jose Luis Chavez; Bishop
Emeritus Arturo Lona Reyes; the Coordinator of the church's
Commission for Justice and Peace, Wilfrido Mayen Pelaez; and
renowned Oaxacan artist Francisco Toledo.

Oaxaca Behind the Scenes
--------------


6. (C) In order to better understand the dynamics underlying
the strike, poloffs met with several contacts with firsthand
knowledge of the situation. Diodoro Carrasco, former PRI
Governor of Oaxaca and Secretary of Government in the Zedillo
Administration -- and a recent defector to the PAN -- told
poloffs on June 13 that the Oaxaca section of the SNTE has a

MEXICO 00003572 002 OF 002


long history of labor unrest and confrontation, even if this
year's strike was more conflictive than past ones. He
believes that other, more radical elements, including
indigenous and migrant movements, were seeking to exploit the
current situation, increasing the level of confrontation.
Just four days before the June 14 clash, Carrasco predicted
that the situation was "one step from violence." He blamed
Governor Ruiz for handling the conflict in a confrontational
manner and being unwilling to negotiate in good faith. He
disputed Ruiz's claim that Gordillo was somehow fomenting the
unrest in order to prejudice Madrazo's campaign, noting that
she had no influence on the Oaxaca union.


7. (C) Heladio Ramirez, head of the PRI-affiliated National
Farmers' Confederation and himself a former Governor of
Oaxaca, echoed Carrasco's criticism of Ruiz's handling of the
crisis, saying that a negotiated resolution at one point had
been attainable. He argued that even if the state currently
lacked resources to offer an immediate pay raise, it could
have shown its good faith by guaranteeing a future raise.


8. (C) By contrast, Enrique Burgos, a PRI congressman and
president of the lower chamber's Labor Commission, appeared
to side with Ruiz, describing the events in Oaxaca as
politically motivated. In particular, he believes that
Gordillo has somehow provoked the labor unrest. According to
this logic, by blocking the elections in Oaxaca -- or at the
very least, by discouraging voters from turning out -- the
strikers would drive down Madrazo's vote totals, as well as
those of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who is in second place
in Oaxaca. By reducing the vote for Calderon's two rivals in
a state in which the PAN has little presence, Gordillo would
be indirectly aiding Calderon.


9. (C) In a June 27 meeting, Gabriel Sanchez of the NGO
Citizen Presence (Presencia Ciudadana) downplayed the
potential impact that the strike could have on the election
in Oaxaca, even if the teachers did choose to block voting
stations. He noted that the teachers' presence is limited
largely to the center of Oaxaca city, and they are therefore
capable of affecting only a very small percentage of the
total number of voting stations in Oaxaca state. An IFE
official told us he doubted the teachers could disrupt more
than perhaps 20 percent of the polling stations at the worst
(ref b).


10. (C) Comment: We find Burgos's speculation that Elba
Esther Gordillo is somehow behind the conflict as
self-serving and improbable, given her lack of influence on
the local union. Nevertheless, the teachers' appear
motivated to cause the PRI electoral damage. Their threat to
block the election in Oaxaca is a high stakes strategy that
risks alienating the support of the general population; that
may well account for apparent desire of some union members to
back off from this threat. The level of tension in Oaxaca --
although still high -- appears to have decreased slightly
over the past few days and our best guess is that the union
will seek to avoid an Election Day clash. Nevertheless, the
situation bears close monitoring and post will have two
election observers on the ground in Oaxaca for that purpose.
End comment.


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