PAN LEGISLATORS OPINE ON CAMPAIGN/PARTY DYNAMICS

66879
2006-06-06 13:29:00
06MEXICO3081
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL

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TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MX
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003081

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MX
SUBJECT: PAN LEGISLATORS OPINE ON CAMPAIGN/PARTY DYNAMICS
AND ROLE OF THE NEXT CONGRESS

Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR LESLIE BASSETT, REASONS; 1.
4(B/D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. In separate meetings with TDY Poloff, both
Senator Maria Luisa Calderon (sister of ruling National
Action Party (PAN) presidential Candidate Felipe Calderon)
and Federal Deputy German Martinez (party representative to
the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE)),expressed their
frustrations with the leadership of PAN president Manuel
Espino and the influx of Institutional Revolutionary Party
(PRI) refugees into the party. Calderon and Martinez also
agreed that the PAN will not have a majority in Congress, but
are confident they will increase their representation
substantially, giving a potential Felipe Calderon
administration a good shot at forming a working majority.
Not surprisingly, US migration legislation and border
security were hot topics for the PAN legislators. End
SUMMARY.

A Divided PRI Up For Grabs as the PAN Calculates
Congressional Odds


2. (C) When asked about the role of Congress in the next
sexenio both confided that PAN internal polls show that it
will be almost impossible for the party to have a majority in
the lower house. The PAN could increase its representation
to about 225 seats. The Senator predicted that Calderon
would be more successful at working with Congress because he
is a much better politician than President Vicente Fox. She
commented that President Fox never learned how to deal with
Congress. Fox still acts like a CEO, she continued, overly
pragmatic and wanting to win at all costs. Candidate
Calderon, she said, would work with the opposition but
without weakening the power or authority of the Executive.
While Senator Calderon admitted the possibility of a special
session of the sitting Congress, she said it would only take
place after the elections and with the concurrence of the
president-elect. If Calderon wins, he will seek to revisit
the radio portion of the TV and Radio law and clean up minor
lose-ends of the Fox administration.


3. (C) While Martinez did not speculate on a special session,
he did predict the PRI will play a key role in the next
Congress, but not as the united force of the past. The party
will split when Roberto Madrazo loses, Martinez suggested,
and the subsequent infighting will spill into Congress. The
PRI Governors will control their federal legislators in the
lower house, while PRI strongman Manlio Fabio Beltrones will
control the Senate. PRI dinosaur Manuel Bartlett's decision
to support Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) candidate Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador is the latest sign of the fractures
deepening within the PRI. Martinez is confidant that with
the support of younger, progressive PRI Governors, such as
Enrique Pena Nieto (Edomex),Eduardo Bours (Sonora) and
Eugenio Hernandez (Tamaulipas),a PAN government will have
enough votes in Congress to have a working majority.
Martinez said that the PRI as we know it will cease to exist
on July the third, a victim of defeat and the financial
consequences of bad decision-making by candidate Madrazo.
Madrazo's decision to ally with the Green Party, for example,
will cost the PRI eight percent of federal subsidies (which
are calculated on the basis of the vote each party attains).
The central PRI structure was already short of money, and a
poor showing in the July vote would further exacerbate its
financial woes.
Making Deals with the Devil


4. (C) On the issue of former and current PRI officials
joining the PAN, the Senator firmly stated that the party's
National Executive Committee and the campaign are two
different organizations. According to Calderon and Martinez,
PAN President Manuel Espino's performance has been awful for
several reasons, including making deals with the devil
(suggesting the PRI). Martinez added that Espino, who is
close to first lady Marta Sahagun, tramples all over PAN
principles in his zest to get votes, wherever possible. The
Senator said that Espino, not Calderon, has given priority to
non-PAN politicos who bring votes, not values, to the party.
As a result the presidential campaign and the party are
somewhat distant. According to Martinez, some PRIistas are
more acceptable than others. For example, former PRI
president Genaro Borrego (who resigned from the party 6/5)
came from a primarily PANista family. Luis Tellez, a Zedillo
cabinet member set to support Calderon, is a technocrat who
is almost apolitical. On the other hand, Ruben Mendoza,
former candidate for governor of Edomex, was a colossal
disaster. Martinez squarely blames Espino for pushing
forward Mendoza's nomination and costing the PAN a very
public setback. On the subject of acceptable technocrats,
the Senator confirmed that IMF deputy managing director

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Agustin Carstens, a PRI member, has been touted as a
potential Secretary of Finance under a Calderon
administration. She said that her brother is pragmatic
enough to choose the best man to run the economy even if the
person is not a PANista. The Senator did add that Calderon
would place trusted aides in Under Secretary positions to
keep an eye on those non-PANista Secretaries.
Sojo Factor and Other Campaign Issues


5. (C) Martinez told us that Fox advisor Eduardo Sojo has
been a calming influence with the relatively young Calderon
team. Sojo participates in war room meetings and serves as a
link between the campaign and Los Pinos. Martinez added that
Calderon likes Sojo and expects him to play a significant
role in a possible Calderon administration. Martinez
confirmed reports that the Calderon team is not working with
teachers' union (SNTE) president Elba Esther Gordillo --
because she wanted too much in exchange for her union's
support. (Note: It thus seems likely that her competing
presidential candidate, Roberto Campa, will finish the race
under the "New Alliance" banner. End Note).


6. (C) Martinez was not terribly disappointed with IFE's
ruling against the PAN's "AMLO is a danger to Mexico" spots
and said the campaign has already moved on. The strategy now
is to focus on the debate, he said. If Calderon does well
and it is reflected in post debate polls, the campaign will
take a more passive approach and act presidential. On the
other hand, if Lopez Obrador does better than expected, the
Calderon campaign will go back to being aggressive. Martinez
expects the debate to be tough for Calderon, and believes
Lopez Obrador will quickly turn the event into a "good vs.
evil" exercise. Martinez, like many in the PAN, dismissed
the PRI, and suggested that PRI candidate Madrazo's recent
overtures to the PRD reflect desperation. Martinez added
that any PRI-PRD alliance hurts Lopez Obrador and helps
Madrazo. It also helps the PAN because they can easily paint
both opponents with the same brush, however, Martinez said
the campaign is worried that a PRI-PRD alliance could spark
unrest if Calderon only wins by a couple of points.

Cabinet Selections and other Key Bilateral Issues


7. (C) Martinez stressed that candidate Calderon has a great
deal of confidence in the military (SEDENA),and in current
Secretary of Defense Vega. Calderon will keep with tradition

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and allow Gen. Vega to submit his top five choices for his
replacement. Calderon will be very involved with all
Secretariats, not just SEDENA, while he learns the issues.

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Only after Calderon feels comfortable with the agenda,
Martinez predicted, will he delegate to his Cabinet members.
Martinez said that besides migration, Calderon,s priority in
his foreign policy with Washington will be to shift the
public debate on border security. According to Martinez,
Calderon wants Mexico to take more ownership of issue and be
a more active partner with Washington. The goal of a
Calderon administration would be to find commonalties between
terrorism-security and narco-security. Economics will be
another key priority.

Comment


8. (C) Both Senator Calderon and Martinez indicated that
tensions between the campaign and the PAN party structure
remain strong even at this late date in the campaign, and
after Calderon's brief but impressive rise in the polls. The
campaign and the party have been effective partners in the
effort to win as large a PAN faction in Congress as possible,
and in putting out effective messages against the other
presidential candidates. After the election, especially if
Calderon wins, he may well try to shake up party leadership
to better reflect his priorities.



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