Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MEXICO2702
2006-05-18 23:44:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Mexico
Cable title:  

AMLO'S THIRD ACT: NON-VIOLENCE AND THE MIDDLE

Tags:  PGOV PINR MX 
pdf how-to read a cable
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 002702 

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SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR MX
SUBJECT: AMLO'S THIRD ACT: NON-VIOLENCE AND THE MIDDLE
CLASS TAKE CENTER STAGE

REF: MEXICO 2408

Summary

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 002702

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR MX
SUBJECT: AMLO'S THIRD ACT: NON-VIOLENCE AND THE MIDDLE
CLASS TAKE CENTER STAGE

REF: MEXICO 2408

Summary


1. (U) As the campaign season enters its final fifty days,
Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) candidate Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) prepares to shift his strategy
into high gear. After fumbling through March and April, AMLO
now finds himself in second place in most polls and looks to
revise his strategy to focus on a message of non-violence and
themes of interest to Mexico's middle-class. In addition to
reformatting his message on issues like employment and
security, AMLO will also seek a change of scenery - holding
events in large urban areas instead of poor, isolated
municipalities. AMLO will also surround himself with new
advisors, further gutting Mexico City's cabinet. Although he
has stated publicly that there is no need to change the
strategy in light of his new position in the polls, the
changes come none too soon if he hopes to regain his lead.
The only obstacle left may be his own words. End Summary.

Back in the City


2. (U) With less than fifty days left before Mexican voters
head to the polls, AMLO is preparing to implement the final
stage of his campaign strategy - a shift that is actually a
return to some of the strategies that have worked for him in
the past. Starting in June, AMLO will leave the comfortable
confines of Mexico's poorer, more isolated municipalities and
return to large-scale urban events - concentrating
principally on the country's 32 capital cities, including
Mexico City, which will be his final campaign stop before the
elections. The large-scale urban events will provide the
campaign with more media coverage. AMLO will also increase
his media spending and outreach in an effort to counter the
negative National Action Party (PAN) ads that have hurt him
over the last three months. Concentrating primarily on
television, AMLO has already begun to expand his media
exposure, agreeing to interviews on numerous Mexican talk
shows, including the popular Televisa show hosted by Victor
Trujillo and TV Azteca's Animal Nocturno. AMLO continues to
complain that he does not have the resources to fight ad for
ad and compete in the "dirty war" launched by the PAN's
Felipe Calderon. AMLO hopes the increased media appearances
and larger, more accessible urban events will help deliver

his reformatted platform to middle-class voters, voters he
lost to Calderon between March and April.

Themes that Matter


3. (U) As reported earlier (reftel),AMLO hopes to make up
ground lost to Calderon by refocusing his campaign on themes
that appeal to middle-class and young voters, who represent
the majority of Mexico's independent "swing" voters. Sources
inside the campaign have told us AMLO will return to
concentrating on issues such as jobs, crime, foreign policy,
education, and macroeconomic stability. Over the last two
weeks AMLO has participated in two Consulting Council for an
Alternative Project for the Nation fora, announcing his six
foreign policy objectives and laying out his general position
on education. Organized by campaign advisor Porfirio Munoz
Ledo, more events like these are expected in the future.


4. (U) In addition to concentrating more on the issues, AMLO
will also be trying to project an image of moderation and
victimization by unscrupulous opponents. This served him
well in last year's desafuero process, eventually leading to
the government dropping the charges against him. He has
warned of the electoral fraud his opponents are allegedly
perpetrating. This shift in message has something to do with
the successful PAN advertisements suggesting AMLO is a
dangerous leftist but it also reflects AMLO's need to
distance himself from recent violent union strikes and a
bloody confrontation between police and demonstrators in San
Salvador Atenco. At a recent campaign event, AMLO assured
the crowd that only through peaceful and electoral means can
Mexico change - he said he did not agree with the use of
force, no matter the reasons. He insisted that his campaign
has no relationship with Subcommandante Marcos, said the PRD
would continue to fight through electoral means, and insisted
that the solution to the country's conflicts was dialogue,
negotiation, and consensus. He denied accusations that he
was polarizing the country, arguing instead that the only
thing polarizing the people is the economic inequalities
perpetuated by President Fox and preceding Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) administrations. AMLO also
recently asked supporters to be on the lookout for electoral
fraud, specifically the use of government funds to sway votes
or outright vote buying.

Campaign Musical Chairs

MEXICO 00002702 002 OF 002




5. (U) As in his previous strategy shifts, the campaign's new
direction will also require new blood. AMLO recently called
on a number of old allies from the Mexico City government to
help. The new members include:

-- Secretary of Urban Development and Housing Laura Itzel
Castillo;

-- Secretary of Health Asa Cristina Laurell;

-- Secretary of Transportation and Roadways Francisco Garduno;

-- Citizen Attention Director Leticia Ramirez; and

-- Secretary of Environment Claudia Sheinbaum

Changes have already begun to take shape. Socorro Diaz,
federal deputy and Citizens Network Coordinator, has been
relieved of her duties and will be replaced by PRD National
President Leonel Cota. Cota will be responsible for
coordinating activities in the states of Sinaloa, Sonora,
Baja California, Baja California Sur, and Colima. Itzel
Castillo will help coordinate activities in Oaxaca, Garduno
in Hidalgo, Laurel in Chiapas, and Ramirez in Tlaxcala.


6. (SBU) One person whose job appears safe is foreign policy
advisor Dr. Jose Maria Perez Gay. Rumors were heard that
both Porfirio Munoz Ledo and Citizens Network Coordinator
Manuel Camacho Solis were gunning for Perez Gay's position,
using his frailty and lack of English as their main
arguments. According to separate PRD contacts, Perez Gay's
role as foreign policy guru is perfectly secure for now.
These contacts agreed that Munoz Ledo is not a good fit
considering AMLO's foreign policy objectives and Munoz Ledo's
outsized personality. They both also confirmed that whatever
problems existed between Camacho Solis and Perez Gay were now
resolved and that Perez Gay's close personal relationship
with AMLO will keep him in place.

Comment


7. (SBU) The campaign strategy shift represents AMLO's hope
to regain the front-runner position. The task is a difficult
one, especially since AMLO's biggest obstacle is often his
own mouth. After weeks of keeping his promise to not mention
Fox in any of his speeches in order to avoid further verbal
confrontations, AMLO could not resist calling Fox a puppet of
the U.S. and a man of straw for his allegedly weak reaction
to U.S. plans to send the National Guard to the border. This
had echoes of Chavez calling Fox a puppy of the U.S., and it
is only a matter of time before the Calderon campaign tries
to capitalize on the gaffe. End Comment.


Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

GARZA