WAITING FOR THE WHOLE ENCHILADA: MEXICO REACTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 002637

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MX
SUBJECT: WAITING FOR THE WHOLE ENCHILADA: MEXICO REACTION
TO PRESIDENT BUSH'S IMMIGRATION SPEECH FOCUSED ON
"MILITARIZATION" AND FOX FAILURES


Summary


1. (SBU) Fox administration officials responded immediately
to President Bush's 5/15 speech by stressing there was no
"militarization" of the border, the shared responsibility for
border security, and their concern over the lack of
legislative progress on migration. Mexican commentators
focused primarily on the perceived "militarization" of the
border area and President Fox's failure to negotiate a
comprehensive migration accord. Analysts noted the
characterization of migrants as "illegal," questioned whether
the National Guard deployments would be temporary, and
equated National Guard with military forces. Most
highlighted that President Bush's decisions marked a double
failure for the Fox Administration -- it had failed to reach
a migration accord with the U.S. and it had failed to
maintain security along the border. While most reasoned
voices did note that migration reform was linked to border
control, they struggled against the prevalent desire to score
political points against Fox on this issue. End Summary.

Setting the Stage


2. (SBU) A series of U.S.-Mexico consultations 5/12-5/13
culminated in a conversation between the two presidents which
allowed President Fox to tell media he had expressed Mexican
concerns to President Bush about militarization of the
border, and had been assured that this was not the intent.
The Ambassador followed with a press statement early 5/15
urging Mexicans to watch the speech for themselves, stressing
the support role the National Guard might be called upon to
play, and reiterating the strong cooperation between the U.S.
and Mexico. The statement noted that migration reform was
contingent upon a sense among Americans that the border was
controlled and American laws were being respected. PAS and
POL followed up with outreach -- which continues -- to key
commentators, political leaders and the presidential
campaigns. We are encouraging contacts to understand that
border security enhancements directly impact the legislative
process, pointing out that the Fox Administration is savvy
enough to position itself now to benefit from eventual
passage of immigration reform.

Official Reactions


3. (U) After the speech Fox administration officials sought
-- mostly successfully -- to hew to a common line. An SRE
communique issued 5/15 expressed appreciation for the
President's recognition of the role migrants play in the U.S.
economy and his commitment to comprehensive migration reform.
It stressed that the GOM has been assured the U.S. measures
do not constitute militarization of the border. The GOM
remained concerned that these measures were being taken
absent corresponding progress in the legislative process.
Finally, the GOM would redouble its efforts to protect the
rights of Mexicans living in the U.S. Presidential
spokesperson Ruben Aguilar recapped many of these points,
noted the GOM's concern over President Bush's decision to
send six thousand National Guard soldiers to the border but
acknowledged that it was a sovereign decision. Aguilar
reiterated that the Fox administration has expressed its
position on numerous occasions, including Fox's 5/14
telephone conversation with President Bush, that the
migration problem can only be resolved through cooperation
and not from a strictly law enforcement or judicial
perspective. Foreign Secretary Luis Derbez and Undersecretary
for North American Affairs Geronimo Gutierrez both repeatedly
stated that the GOM had received assurances that the
deployment did not constitute a militarization of the border
and that the real concern is that this deployment is not
accompanied by sufficient advances on immigration reform in
the United States Congress.

Congress Circles the Wagons


4. (U) A handful of senators and federal deputies from the
Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Democratic
Revolutionary Party (PRD) used the speech as an opportunity
to criticize the Fox administration. Senators Humberto Roque
(PRI) and Raymundo Cardenas (PRD) (both running for election
as federal deputies in 2006) chastised Fox for "accepting the
militarization of the border instead of the promise of
migration reform." Two federal deputies from the same
parties condemned the decision to bring in the National Guard
and affirmed that the U.S. initiative represents the failure
of Fox's migration policies and the end of any hopes for a
bilateral migration accord. Not all the reaction was
negative, however, as National Action (PAN) Deputy Ivan
Cortes stated his lone opinion that the deployment of
National Guard forces to the border can be a positive move to

MEXICO 00002637 002 OF 003


break the impasse on migration reform in the U.S. Congress.

Candidates Speak


5. (U) PAN presidential candidate Felipe Calderon was the
first to react to President Bush's statements, commenting
that the strategy to deploy troops was erroneous, that walls
are not the solution, and that migrants are not a threat.
His campaign followed up his initial statements with a more
detailed reaction: expressing Calderon's understanding that
President Bush will continue to seek a comprehensive reform
while increasing security to appeal to those who believe more
wall, sensors, and border patrol agents are necessary; that
those same groups misunderstand the situation, raising the
social and human costs to migrants while benefiting the
criminals who take advantage of them; calling for a solution
based on cooperation and mutual responsibility; and
reiterating that walls are not a solution. Calderon also
added that as president he will make employment in Mexico a
top priority and that his government will assume the
responsibility to actively defend and promote the rights of
migrants in the U.S. indiscriminate of their migratory status.


6. (U) Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO),the PRD's
presidential candidate, stated that the National Guard
deployment, "is not the solution, it is not the alternative,
but it is a shame for us," blaming the Fox administration for
a lack of employment that forces people to emigrate. AMLO
suggested that the U.S. decision will only generate more
friction, more violations of human rights, and mistreatment
of migrants. He called on the GOM to protest the decision
and explained that such deployments would not happen under
his presidency because he would make credible commitments on
job creation that would convince the U.S. to adopt different
measures.


7. (U) PRI presidential candidate Roberto Madrazo had the
least to say about the issue, commenting simply that the
militarization of the northern border was major evidence of
Fox's foreign policy failures.

Hot Off the Press


8. (U) Much like the candidates and politicians, the Mexican
media, analysts, and opinion-makers focused on plans to
deploy National Guard troops on the border. They dwelled
over the characterization of migrants as "illegal," and the
apparent grouping of "undocumented" migrants with
narcotraffickers and terrorists. The media and analysts were
also skeptical of reports that the Guard will assume
"logistical and administrative duties," and that their
deployment is strictly temporary. They have been critical of
the Fox administration as well, complaining about its failure
to confront the U.S. over the deployment and its inability to
control crime along the border. An editorial published in
Mexico City's leading daily, El Universal, blasted the GOM by
equating the President's speech with a "complete breakdown of
Mexico's migratory policy." The analysis generally
epitomized the Mexican fixation on migration entitlement
combined with the political spin of campaign season. A
handful of commentators -- many reached by the Ambassador or
PAS staff Monday -- acknowledged that border control was
linked in the U.S. to migration reform, and that Mexico must
take the sweet with the sour. Quoting the Ambassador,
Televisa's Adela Micha noted that "the United States is
beefing up its efforts to make the border more secure," and
that "President Bush is responsible for guaranteeing the
security of the American people." Commentator Joaquin
Lopez-Dorriga cited Ambassador Garza's concern about the
"millions of people who live and work illegally in the U.S.,"
and his opinion that, "Congress will not seriously consider
any legislation addressing their presence unless we can make
our borders more secure."

Comment


9. (SBU) Post appreciates the effort by Washington agencies
to brief key GOM officials on the points in the speech, an
effort which allowed the Fox Administration to develop a
consistent and constructive position. Post efforts to
explain the complicated linkage between security and
migration, begun almost a year ago and intensified on Monday,
clearly paid off with some commentators. We will continue to
reach out to media and the political campaigns. But in a
vicious and close-run electoral season it is too much to
expect that the presidential contenders won't try to create
an opportunity to criticize Fox's policies, and thus trim the
sails of front-runner Calderon.



MEXICO 00002637 003 OF 003


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