Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MEXICO2182
2006-04-26 10:51:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Mexico
Cable title:
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PREPARE FOR FIRST POLITICAL
how-toVZCZCXRO5192 RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM DE RUEHME #2182/01 1161051 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 261051Z APR 06 FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0488 INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 002182
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC
STATE PASS USAID FOR LAC:MARK CARRATO
TREASURY FOR IA MEXICO DESK: JASPER HOEK
COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/NAFTA: ANDREW RUDMAN
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV PGOV PINR MX
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PREPARE FOR FIRST POLITICAL
DEBATE
-------
SUMMARY
-------
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 002182
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC
STATE PASS USAID FOR LAC:MARK CARRATO
TREASURY FOR IA MEXICO DESK: JASPER HOEK
COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/NAFTA: ANDREW RUDMAN
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV PGOV PINR MX
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PREPARE FOR FIRST POLITICAL
DEBATE
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (SBU) As the presidential candidates prepare for their
first debate April 25 in Mexico City, the four partipants
are emphasizing Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's (PRD) refusal
to attend, while Roberto Madrazo, Patricia Mercado and
Roberto Campa take every opportunity to attack the current
administration. Adopting a populist tone, Roberto Madrazo
(PRI) told sugar cane producers he would oblige the U.S.
government to accept Mexican sugar surpluses. Felipe
Calderon (PAN) became the first candidate to explicitly
promise to combat intellectual property piracy. AMLO
dismissed as ""excessive"" Calderon's characterization of
AMLO as a significant danger for the country, even as he
acknowledged Calderon's gains in recent polls. Hopefully,
we will see more substance in today's debate and not the
persistent and shallow attacks on each other that have
prevailed thus far in the political campaign. End summary.
--------------
FIRST POLITICAL DEBATE
--------------
2. (SBU) With AMLO's notorious absence, which will be
emphasized by placing an empty chair on the stage, the other
four presidential candidates will hold their first two-hour
political debate on April 25 at 8:30 pm. The second and
last debate - in which AMLO tentatively plans to participate
-- is scheduled for June 6. The first debate will focus on
five main issues: fiscal policy, energy policy, labor
policy, poverty, and social and sustainable development.
The Mexican business sector represented by the Business
Coordination Council (CCE) and the Mexican Businessmen's
Council (CMHN) called on the candidates to hold a high-level
debate with more explicit and broader proposals than they
have offered thus far.
-------------- --------------
MADRAZO WILL FORCE THE U.S. TO ACCEPT MEXICAN SUGAR
-------------- --------------
3. (SBU) Desperate to gather more support after recent polls
confirmed that he remains in last place, Madrazo resumed his
populist speeches. On April 20, he addressed workers of a
sugar mill in Morelos where he promised to clean up the
sugar mills expropriated by the Fox administration.
Regarding the full opening of agricultural trade in 2008
under NAFTA, Madrazo said he would "oblige" the U.S. to
accept Mexican sugar surpluses. Without providing further
detail, he also promised to put a different sugar cane
policy in place. He said that the agricultural sector was
in bad shape, exporting less (sugar) and importing more
(fructose). To make the sector more competitive, he offered
to sugar growers (as he has repeatedly promised to other
sectors) to reduce energy rates through an energy law for
farmers, which he claims has thus far been blocked by the
PAN in Congress. Showing his "empathy and sympathy" to
migrants' needs, Madrazo said he supported the general
strike by Hispanic immigrants on May 1.
--------------
CALDERON'S ANTI-PIRACY PLAN
--------------
4. (SBU) Felipe Calderon has been the only candidate to
propose a coordinated action against Intellectual Property
Rights (IPR) violations. Speaking before the Music Authors
and Composers Society on April 19, he promised to combat
piracy through a zero tolerance policy. To protect
copyright holders, Calderon also promised to increase
penalties for those that illegally reproduce copyrighted
material. According to Calderon's plan, IPR violators would
be registered in a criminal database to better detect and
punish them. To combat piracy effectively, the PAN
candidate said he would strengthen Customs, a key agency in
detecting and deterring illegal merchandise. Calderon's IPR
proposal is included in his Integral Public Policies
Program.
--------------
AMLO SAYS HE'S NOT A DANGER FOR MEXICO
--------------
MEXICO 00002182 002 OF 002
5. (SBU) PAN spots comparing AMLO to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez
and blaming the PRD candidate for increasing Mexico City's
debt have thus far proved surprisingly successful. In
recent polls, AMLO's support fell in favor of Felipe
Calderon, who is now narrowing the gap between them.
Indeed, on April 25, Reforma published a poll showing
Calderon leading AMLO 38% to 35%, with Madrazo trailing with
23%. Alleging that accusations claiming he is a danger to
the country were unfounded, AMLO spent last week repeating
the outline of his platform, but failed to offer anything
new. He asserted that he would not allow private investment
in Pemex because what the state-run company needed was
better management, less corruption, and the creation of a
value-added chain. AMLO believes that by getting rid of
corruption in gasoline distribution and ending robberies
from Pemex pipelines, he will obtain the needed funds (about
MP 15 billion) to invest in exploration of new wells. AMLO
stressed his three priorities should he become president:
social policy, reduction of energy rates, and the austerity
plan. The reactivation of the economy and the creation of
jobs would be possible thanks to his infrastructure plans,
which include construction of public works and housing
programs. About NAFTA, AMLO has said that he would call for
a re-negotiation in order to include a clause to protect
Mexican farmers. AMLO's favorite slogan, "For everybody's
welfare, poor citizens come first", captures his main
message.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
6. (SBU) The debate is structured with two and one-half
minute slots for presentation of candidates' proposals on
each of the five main issues, with each candidate also
having one and one-half minutes for rebuttal on each issue.
Accordingly, the format is more that of a series of public
statements than that of a true debate, since there will be
little opportunity for the candidates to engage each other.
Hopefully, though, the event will give voters an opportunity
to evaluate the candidates outside of the campaign context
of repetitive speeches, media interviews, and radio and TV
commercials. The private sector expects to learn more about
the candidates' proposals during the debate than what has
been presented thus far. It remains to be seen whether
Calderon and Madrazo use the event more to attack each
other, or to focus on their shared adversary in absentia.
End comment.
GARZA
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC
STATE PASS USAID FOR LAC:MARK CARRATO
TREASURY FOR IA MEXICO DESK: JASPER HOEK
COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/NAFTA: ANDREW RUDMAN
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV PGOV PINR MX
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PREPARE FOR FIRST POLITICAL
DEBATE
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (SBU) As the presidential candidates prepare for their
first debate April 25 in Mexico City, the four partipants
are emphasizing Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's (PRD) refusal
to attend, while Roberto Madrazo, Patricia Mercado and
Roberto Campa take every opportunity to attack the current
administration. Adopting a populist tone, Roberto Madrazo
(PRI) told sugar cane producers he would oblige the U.S.
government to accept Mexican sugar surpluses. Felipe
Calderon (PAN) became the first candidate to explicitly
promise to combat intellectual property piracy. AMLO
dismissed as ""excessive"" Calderon's characterization of
AMLO as a significant danger for the country, even as he
acknowledged Calderon's gains in recent polls. Hopefully,
we will see more substance in today's debate and not the
persistent and shallow attacks on each other that have
prevailed thus far in the political campaign. End summary.
--------------
FIRST POLITICAL DEBATE
--------------
2. (SBU) With AMLO's notorious absence, which will be
emphasized by placing an empty chair on the stage, the other
four presidential candidates will hold their first two-hour
political debate on April 25 at 8:30 pm. The second and
last debate - in which AMLO tentatively plans to participate
-- is scheduled for June 6. The first debate will focus on
five main issues: fiscal policy, energy policy, labor
policy, poverty, and social and sustainable development.
The Mexican business sector represented by the Business
Coordination Council (CCE) and the Mexican Businessmen's
Council (CMHN) called on the candidates to hold a high-level
debate with more explicit and broader proposals than they
have offered thus far.
-------------- --------------
MADRAZO WILL FORCE THE U.S. TO ACCEPT MEXICAN SUGAR
-------------- --------------
3. (SBU) Desperate to gather more support after recent polls
confirmed that he remains in last place, Madrazo resumed his
populist speeches. On April 20, he addressed workers of a
sugar mill in Morelos where he promised to clean up the
sugar mills expropriated by the Fox administration.
Regarding the full opening of agricultural trade in 2008
under NAFTA, Madrazo said he would "oblige" the U.S. to
accept Mexican sugar surpluses. Without providing further
detail, he also promised to put a different sugar cane
policy in place. He said that the agricultural sector was
in bad shape, exporting less (sugar) and importing more
(fructose). To make the sector more competitive, he offered
to sugar growers (as he has repeatedly promised to other
sectors) to reduce energy rates through an energy law for
farmers, which he claims has thus far been blocked by the
PAN in Congress. Showing his "empathy and sympathy" to
migrants' needs, Madrazo said he supported the general
strike by Hispanic immigrants on May 1.
--------------
CALDERON'S ANTI-PIRACY PLAN
--------------
4. (SBU) Felipe Calderon has been the only candidate to
propose a coordinated action against Intellectual Property
Rights (IPR) violations. Speaking before the Music Authors
and Composers Society on April 19, he promised to combat
piracy through a zero tolerance policy. To protect
copyright holders, Calderon also promised to increase
penalties for those that illegally reproduce copyrighted
material. According to Calderon's plan, IPR violators would
be registered in a criminal database to better detect and
punish them. To combat piracy effectively, the PAN
candidate said he would strengthen Customs, a key agency in
detecting and deterring illegal merchandise. Calderon's IPR
proposal is included in his Integral Public Policies
Program.
--------------
AMLO SAYS HE'S NOT A DANGER FOR MEXICO
--------------
MEXICO 00002182 002 OF 002
5. (SBU) PAN spots comparing AMLO to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez
and blaming the PRD candidate for increasing Mexico City's
debt have thus far proved surprisingly successful. In
recent polls, AMLO's support fell in favor of Felipe
Calderon, who is now narrowing the gap between them.
Indeed, on April 25, Reforma published a poll showing
Calderon leading AMLO 38% to 35%, with Madrazo trailing with
23%. Alleging that accusations claiming he is a danger to
the country were unfounded, AMLO spent last week repeating
the outline of his platform, but failed to offer anything
new. He asserted that he would not allow private investment
in Pemex because what the state-run company needed was
better management, less corruption, and the creation of a
value-added chain. AMLO believes that by getting rid of
corruption in gasoline distribution and ending robberies
from Pemex pipelines, he will obtain the needed funds (about
MP 15 billion) to invest in exploration of new wells. AMLO
stressed his three priorities should he become president:
social policy, reduction of energy rates, and the austerity
plan. The reactivation of the economy and the creation of
jobs would be possible thanks to his infrastructure plans,
which include construction of public works and housing
programs. About NAFTA, AMLO has said that he would call for
a re-negotiation in order to include a clause to protect
Mexican farmers. AMLO's favorite slogan, "For everybody's
welfare, poor citizens come first", captures his main
message.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
6. (SBU) The debate is structured with two and one-half
minute slots for presentation of candidates' proposals on
each of the five main issues, with each candidate also
having one and one-half minutes for rebuttal on each issue.
Accordingly, the format is more that of a series of public
statements than that of a true debate, since there will be
little opportunity for the candidates to engage each other.
Hopefully, though, the event will give voters an opportunity
to evaluate the candidates outside of the campaign context
of repetitive speeches, media interviews, and radio and TV
commercials. The private sector expects to learn more about
the candidates' proposals during the debate than what has
been presented thus far. It remains to be seen whether
Calderon and Madrazo use the event more to attack each
other, or to focus on their shared adversary in absentia.
End comment.
GARZA