THE FOX ADMINISTRATION'S FINAL BI-NATIONAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 001456

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PLEASE PASS TO ALL BNC PARTICIPANTS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ELAB CVIS EAID MX
SUBJECT: THE FOX ADMINISTRATION'S FINAL BI-NATIONAL
COMMISSION (BNC): TIME FOR AN ASSESSMENT


1. (SBU) Summary: Fox Administration officials see this
fifth and final BNC of their term as a chance to highlight
bilateral achievements, institutionalize successful
mechanisms, and prepare for the heads of state meeting in
Cancun. President Fox, who recently announced imminent
extraditions of cartel leaders to the U.S., is clearly
interested in making history in contrast to his Foreign
Secretary, Luis Ernesto Derbez, who is more interested in

SIPDIS
headlines. We will find Government Secretary Abascal,
Public Security Secretary Medina Mora, and to a lesser degree
Attorney General (PGR) Cabeza de Vaca most able to address
our fundamental concerns regarding security, migration and
law enforcement. The Fox cabinet recognizes that it has mere
months to cement its legacy before a probable change to a
presidency they view literally with fear and loathing.
Embassy notes that in March there will be three high-level
encounters (including presidential) between the U.S. and
Mexico, calling into question the continued need for the BNC.
End Summary.

The Fox Administration's Final BNC


2. (SBU) The Fox administration labors under the weight of
missed opportunities, and the relationship with the United
States is one area of disappointment. Unprecedented
bilateral cooperation on law enforcement, extraditions and
anti-terrorism measures goes largely unperceived by the
public eye. Expectations are raised (often fueled by
ill-advised SRE leaks) by bilateral meetings at the head of
state, cabinet or other levels , which are characterized as
"failures" when no sweeping programs (benefiting Mexico) are
launched. Derbez is criticized for being at odds with Cuba
and the U.S. at the same time. He and the Fox Administration
see March's remaining trifecta of meetings (the 3/23 NAFTA
ministerial, the BNC and the leaders meeting in Cancun) as a
chance to show the relationship is thriving as never before
-- and reaping benefits for Mexico. They will seek
recognition for anti-crime efforts, commitments for better
migrant protection, and keep one eye on the Senate debates in
the hope that immigration reform prospers. The Mexican
delegation will offer protocols for responding to border
violence, strengthened efforts to monitor its southern
border, and acknowledgment that Mexico could do more on its
northern border (in exchange for more work visas).

The End of the Sexenio


3. (SBU) As the Fox six-year term ends (Fox is precluded
from re-election) he confronts expected but still biting
criticism from the current candidates, including Felipe
Calderon from his own National Action Party (PAN). Fox for
his part continues to stress the importance of continuity,
the risk of "changing horses mid-stream," and the dangers of
demagoguery, all in a transparent effort to detract from
leading Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) candidate Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). AMLO, who runs under the rubric
"For the Benefit of All -- but First the Poor," polls at 41
percent, 10 points higher than Calderon, and 16 points higher
than Institutional Revolution Party (PRI) candidate Roberto
Madrazo. While there are still four months before July 2
elections, an AMLO victory seems increasingly inevitable, a
prospect that Fox personally abhors and that many in the PAN
dread. While we have remained carefully neutral in this
election, PAN and government officials receive any critical
dialogue as electoral blows. In fact the United States has
not played as an issue at all in this election -- with the
single exception of migration.


4. (SBU) Mexicans have focused more strongly on Mexico's
falling competitiveness, a theme of last year's BNC. In
education, productivity, foreign investment, transparency --
Mexico has fallen in the rankings or struggled to hold
position. Through the "Chapultepec Pact," multi-billionaire
Carlos Slim and other business leaders have tried to get the
parties to endorse a national platform of economic principles
designed to enhance competitiveness. Of course, commentators
note that Slim's domination of key sectors contributes to
Mexico's lack of global competitiveness. AMLO is the only
candidate not to sign on to the Pact. Slim has joined many
economic observers in stating that the fundamentals of
Mexico's economy are stable regardless of which candidate
wins in 2006.

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The Sexenio to Come


5. (SBU) Our interests align with Mexico's in trying to
codify successful cooperative relationships through protocols
that can be established, exercised and implemented at
operational levels. While Mexico will seek some kind of
accord that can be signed at the leaders' meeting in Cancun,
we are better served by highlighting operational commitments
by both sides to, for example, actually respond to incidents
of border violence. Mexico anticipated this by beefing up
law enforcement presence along the border with Texas. Our
message is that we need sustained, strategic efforts along
the length of the border.


6. (SBU) We also need the Fox team to help us ensure
continuity through what is likely to be a thorny transition
from one administration to the next. Two-thirds of those
Mexicans participating in the BNC will be out of office in
December, regardless of who wins in July. As much as we can
applaud the cooperation we have now, we need their commitment
to sustain it through the transition, and to be collaborative
with an incoming government so our interests don't suffer.


7. (SBU) Finally, the change in Mexican government is an
opportunity to evaluate the continued utility of the BNC
format. In 1981 when the BNC was launched there were no
faxes, internet, cell phones, NAFTA or SPP. Today we have a
broad range of tools and fora that are used daily to engage
with the Mexicans at the local, state, and federal levels.
The optic of the BNC is strong symbolically, but it is
increasingly weak substantively. We get more impact, better
bilateral results and better media play from issue-specific,
relevant meetings between cabinet partners than we do from
the half-day of the BNC.


Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

GARZA