LESOTHO POWER SHIFT: 18 MPS QUIT GOVERNING PARTY

UNCLAS MASERU 000514

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE, SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC LT
SUBJECT: LESOTHO POWER SHIFT: 18 MPS QUIT GOVERNING PARTY

REF: MASERU 507


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On October 13, stepping up a rapidly
unfolding political drama in Lesotho, eighteen members of the
governing Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) abandoned their
party, symbolically crossing the aisle at Parliament to join new
splinter party, the All Basotho Convention (ABC). As partisan
crowds outside Parliament chanted political slogans,
unsubstantiated rumors swirled that more defections from the LCD
could follow in the coming days--potentially leading to a vote
of no-confidence against the Government. As of COB October 13,
Maseru remains calm and commercial activity normal. Many
government and party leaders, including PM Mosisili, returned to
their home constituencies for the weekend of October 13-15,
seeking support and/or consultations. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Eighteen Members of Parliament formally defected from the
governing Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) on October 13 to
join the newly formed political party "All Basotho Convention
(ABC)," led by Thomas Thabane, former Minister of Communication.
Thabane, who quit the LCD and formed his new party on October
9, succeeded in wooing several more MPs than he and local
observers had anticipated (reftel). With the dramatic
floor-crossing at Parliament, the LCD's previous two-thirds
majority has been cut significantly, from 79 out of 120 National
Assembly seats to a slender one-seat majority of 61 seats.


3. (SBU) Following the brief, but boisterous, session of
Parliament, leaders of the LCD and various opposition parties
departed Maseru for their home districts either to seek support
from constituents or to consult with local leaders on next
moves. Prime Minister Mosisili (leader of the LCD),joined by
Foreign Minister Moleleki and other GOL officials, traveled to
his home district of Quacha's Nek in remote southeast Lesotho.
A senior MFA official (PROTECT) told Charge that the dramatic
political development "had seized the attention of all Basotho."


4. (SBU) Unsubstantiated rumors circulated among members of the
new ABC party that several more MPs from the LCD, including the
Assistant Minister of Justice, could defect over the next few
days. Local observers speculate that some MPs did not join the
new party on October 13 as they wish to first consult with
constituents.


5. (SBU) Amidst a significant police presence around Parliament
buildings on October 13, hundreds of supporters of the LCD and
the ABC, separated by security officials, sang and chanted party
slogans. ABC supporters appeared to slightly outnumber those
defending the governing party. There were no reports of
violence. Maseru was calm at COB October 13 and local
commercial activity was normal.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: If ABC parliamentarians are correct in their
optimistic prognosis that two or more additional LCD MPS intend
to defect over the next week, this opens the possibility of a
subsequent no-confidence motion in Parliament against the
current LCD Government. Lesotho's opposition parties, however,
are highly fragmented and would face great difficulty forging a
coalition government. Thabane's new ABC party will have to
contend with the country's current top opposition party, the
BNP, led by former putchist (ret.) General Lekhanya. Neither
Thabane nor Lekhanya is inclined to play second fiddle within a
hypothetical coalition government. END COMMENT.

MURPHY