DISCONTENT WITHIN THE RULING PARTY AND THE MAIN OPPOSITION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MASERU 000035

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR LT
SUBJECT: DISCONTENT WITHIN THE RULING PARTY AND THE MAIN OPPOSITION
PARTY


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1. (SBU) Summary: In the aftermath of the first post -
independence Lesotho local government elections, which were held
in April 2005, rumors emerged about internal disputes and power
struggles within the two biggest political parties - the ruling
Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) and the main opposition,
the Basotho National Party (BNP). As the rumors intensified,
undertones challenging the leadership in both parties began to
surface and it was feared that this would lead to general
discontent as they prepare for the 2007 general elections. Some
factions within the LCD feel that Prime Minister Mosisili should
emulate other regional leaders by leaving public office after
two terms even though the constitution allows him to seek more
than two terms. The BNP's internal problems have spilled over to
include the Speaker of Parliament who is accused of
destabilizing the BNP by interfering in its internal affairs.
Internal political decisions may begin to stall progress in
areas ranging from parliamentary reform to needed action on
international matters. End Summary.

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Discontent with the Leadership in the Ruling Party
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2. (SBU) Tension within the LCD was fueled by rumors that
the PM intended to resign prior to the 2007 general elections.
This created friction between the PM, the ministers tipped to
succeed him and their supporters. The Deputy Prime Minister,
who has been referred to as PM Mosisili's man, has no strong
political backing. This has paved the way for ministers who
wish to succeed Mosisili to gradually show their interest.


3. (SBU) Sources within the ruling party indicate that there
are some factions within the LCD who openly want a leadership
change ahead of the 2007 elections. They contend PM Mosisili
should leave public office after two terms even though the
constitution allows him to seek more terms. They are under the
conviction that a leader who stays in power for too long becomes
susceptible to authoritarian tendencies and ends up eliminating
potential future leaders. Die-hard elements within the LCD feel
that Mosisili was just a compromise candidate when he was
elevated to the position of Deputy Prime Minister prior to the
1998 general elections. The then ailing Prime Minister Ntsu
Mokhehle, was faced with a dilemma of choosing a successor.
Mokhehle had to choose between his brother, Shakhane Mokhehle,
then a Minister of Trade and Industry, and current Foreign
Minister Monyane Moleleki (who was then Minister of Natural
Resources) but he was deemed too young at the time. Mosisili
emerged as the best candidate because of his perceived
level-headedness compared to the supposed radical elements
within the LCD.


4. (SBU) The two front-runners now are said to be Foreign
Minister Moleleki and Minister of Communications Tom Thabane
(former Minister of Security). Press reports suggest Moleleki
is the favorite; he is a member of the LCD National Executive
Committee (NEC) and the editor-in-chief of the party newspaper.
Thabane is not a member of the NEC but has a strong following in
his constituency as well as in other areas. (Note: Thabane has
served in a number of ministerial positions over his long
political career.)


5. (SBU) As the "leadership battle" continued to brew,
indirect personal attacks on the credibility of the two
prospective candidates have been topics of discussion in party
caucuses. Also, accusations and counter-accusations between the
two ministers and their supporters both in and outside
government corridors intensified and spread to the
constituencies. In a surprise move in December 2005, Mosisili
wrote a letter to the LCD NEC, Women's League, Constituency
Committees as well as LCD Members of Parliament (MPs). He
indicated that he would not resign and would govern until his
opponents in the party "get used to it."


6. (SBU) At a recent party conference held later the same
month, Mosisili reiterated his declaration. According to the
"Public Eye" newspaper dated December 16, 2005, the Prime
Minister appealed to Moleleki and Thabane not to contest a
non-existent leadership position in the party. He labeled their
crusade as unfounded and targeted at dividing the party. It was
also reported that when the PM arrived at the conference, some
LCD members rushed into the conference hall while others were
sluggish, showing disrespect. When the Prime Minister shouted
out the party slogan, some LCD members chanted negative
responses.

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And the Same in the Largest Opposition Party
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7. (SBU) The leadership of the BNP, which is the largest
opposition party, has not been immune to problems either. After
party leader Major General Metsing Lekhanya was re-elected in
March 2005, it did not take long before his disgruntled
opponents, both in and outside parliament, began to openly
encourage him to resign. The discontent began to rise but the
party leadership, in an attempt to prevent divisions took
disciplinary action on some members while others chose to resign
from party organs.


8. (SBU) The situation was exacerbated when the Speaker of
the National Assembly, Mrs. Nthloi Motsamai (a member of the
ruling LCD),selected a disgruntled member of the BNP in
parliament to attend a meeting on the harmonization of SADC
electoral laws in Botswana in September 2005 without consulting
the BNP leadership.


9. (SBU) Outraged by this nomination, Lekhanya wrote a
letter to the Speaker in September 2005, requesting her to
reconsider the nomination and hold proper consultations.
Lekhanya stressed that such a unilateral act set a dangerous
precedent that damages the independence and integrity of
political parties. (Note: In the mixed member parliament of
Lesotho, the proportional representative members are nominated
and enter parliament by parties and can be removed by parties.
Whereas the "first - past - the - post" members can enter
parliament under a party ticket or as independent candidates and
cannot be removed from parliament until their term is over. The
BNP only has proportional representative members. End note.)
The BNP leader also reminded the Speaker that she had
unilaterally appointed an MP from the Lesotho People's Congress
as Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee whereas the
chairmanship is traditionally allocated to the leader of the
biggest opposition party in government. Lekhanya went further
to remind the Speaker about a highly debatable issue that he
(Lekhanya) was still not recognized as the official opposition
leader and not accorded the privileges of that position. (Note:
The official leader of the opposition is entitled to an official
vehicle and chauffeur, official residence, and salary and other
privileges equivalent to those of a cabinet minister. However,
the Speaker's stand has been that the BNP leader does not
command the required numbers for such recognition. According to
the Speaker, the official opposition leader's party must have at
least twenty-five per-cent (25%) of the seats in parliament in
order to be accorded such privileges. The BNP occupies 17
percent of the seats. End note)


10. (SBU) The BNP Youth League and Women's League also wrote
a letter in October 2005, protesting the Speaker's action. In
addition, the BNP Youth League accused the Speaker of
disrespecting their leadership's decision of appointing the BNP
Youth Leader to replace a deceased BNP MP in the Parliamentary
Reforms Committee. The Speaker had instead appointed a different
BNP member, again against the wishes of the BNP leadership. The
letter concluded by informing the Speaker that all BNP MPs were
summoned for debriefing at their headquarters the same day. The
letter also stipulated that those who would attend would be
deemed as deserters and as such, their seats in parliament would
be forfeited.


11. (SBU) In response, the Speaker made a statement in
Parliament, outlining the events that led to the nomination of
the BNP member for the Botswana conference, and her thorny
relations with the BNP leadership in general. She indicated that
as a co-chairman of the former Interim Political Authority
(IPA),the BNP MP had the requisite experience to represent the
parliament in Botswana. (Note: The IPA is a multi-party body
which was established following the 1998 political disturbances,
and was instrumental in bringing about the present mixed member
electoral model.)


12. (SBU) Essentially asking for protection from the House,
the Speaker outlined a barrage of "intimidating" letters that
she had received from various structures of the BNP.
Subsequently, a motion was passed to refer the matter to the
Parliamentary Privileges Committee. The committee has not
reached a decision.


13. (SBU) The latest BNP communication to the Speaker is a
letter dated December 22, from the Chairman of the Maseru
regional constituencies and co-signed by ten constituency
representatives. The letter accuses the Speaker of gross
interference with BNP internal affairs, and calls for her
resignation. A copy of the Commonwealth Parliamentary
Association guidelines accompanies the letter on parliamentary

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procedure as it affects the role of political parties, party
discipline, and parties and legislative leadership, which they
claim, were violated by the Speaker.

14 (SBU) COMMENT: The internal power struggles and
accusations clearly show the gravity of problems involving the
top leadership of both parties. Some believe the Speaker of
Parliament has tarnished her image as the custodian of
parliamentary procedures and over-stepped her powers by
interfering in matters which should have been left to political
parties to deal with. The ruling LCD is due to hold a leadership
conference on January 28, 2006, which will choose the leadership
for the 2007 general elections. Likewise, the BNP will also hold
a similar conference in December 2006. It is difficult to
predict the outcome of the conferences, but Mosisili is likely
to stay-on as LCD leader and seek a third term until he can
handpick a successor. General Lekhanya has alienated potential
successors by surrounding himself with " yes men " who have no
potential for leadership. He is also likely to stay until a new
contender emerges and defeats him or he handpicks a successor
and resigns by choice.


15. (SBU) Divisiveness within the ruling LCD and the BNP
could render decision-making on major internal multi-lateral and
bilateral issues lengthy or leave them unresolved. In a
"consensus" Cabinet and divided Parliament, objective
consideration of matters from parliamentary reform to trade to
security could become immeshed in internal political power
moves. Stalemates within the LCD as well as the opposition may
also lead to delays in action on pending legislation such as the
Marriage Equity Act, land reform and other measures. At the
same time, we understand from senior Cabinet officials that key
bills (e.g., anti-money laundering) are high on their agendas
and they hope to be able to obtain passage between February and
April. However, the calendar has not yet been published. End
Comment.
PERRY