POTENTIAL SHIFTING WEIGHTS IN LESOTHO'S RULING PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MASERU 000143

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/17/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KICC PINR LT
SUBJECT: POTENTIAL SHIFTING WEIGHTS IN LESOTHO'S RULING PARTY

REF: (A) MASERU 124 AND PREVIOUS

CLASSIFIED BY: JUNE CARTER PERRY, AMBASSADOR, EXEC, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



CLASSIFIED BY: JUNE CARTER PERRY, AMBASSADOR, EXEC, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Over the past two weeks, Ambassador has met with the
Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Finance, Health and Tourism and
Culture. In our conversations with Foreign Minister Moleleki,
Finance Minister Thahane, Health Minister Phooko and Tourism
Minister Nts'inyi, we have detected a hesitancy on the part of
the latter three to discuss the January 29 shooting of the
Foreign Minister and a special effort to reassure the
international community that security and democracy remain top
priorities for the ruling Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD).
While Foreign Minister Moleleki retained his position as
Information Head of the LCD, Minister Nts'inyi assumed the
number two position as Deputy Executive Secretary of the party.
In her position, Minister Nts'inyi has significant
responsibility for national elections (2007) preparations and
LCD relations with opposition parties. Her role now appears to
be a greater one within the Government. At the same time,
Moleleki's dramatic claims about the January attack have not
been verified through a formal government statement or through a
police report. A media report on a second attempted assault
on Moleleki (February 27) was confirmed by the Foreign Minister,
but dismissed by military and police authorities as an attempt
to burnish his image. There have been rumors of a potential
Cabinet shuffling since late 2005. It remains to be seen
whether any immediate changes will be forthcoming, but there is
certainly a sense of ongoing development within the party. End
Summary.


2. (C) Foreign Minister Moleleki's discussions with us over the
past two weeks have centered on the January 29 attack as well as
bilateral and multilateral issues. Moleleki has continued to
assert that the January attack and the alleged February 27
attack were both the result of Communications Minister Thabane's
machinations. He has also strongly alleged that Libya's envoy
to Lesotho (Ambassador Algamudi) is on close terms with
Communications Minister Thabane and he has an agenda that the
Foreign Minister claims Tripoli has not approved. Specifically,
on March 16, the Foreign Minister charged the Libyan Ambassador
with a disingenuous attempt to console him while he was in the
hospital. At that time, the Foreign Minister said the Libyan
envoy asked the Foreign Minister if anyone had been paid to
mount this attack. Moleleki saw the Ambassador's query as a
suspicious one since he himself had not made any mention of a
paid, would-be assailant. Moleleki is planning to go to Tripoli
soon and express his questions about Libya's representative in
Maseru. We observed during this conversation that Moleleki
appeared to have lost weight and seemed somewhat obsessed with
the Libyan issue. Despite these confirmed or unconfirmed
attacks on his life, the Foreign Minister told us he was
planning to travel to Johannesburg on March 17. He considered
his residential security adequate and seemed to have no concerns
about this trip and, in fact, took pains to say that he would
drive himself.


3. (C) Moleleki also reasserted his role in the foreign
affairs arena and his relationship with Prime Minister Mosisili
(who had asked him about the status of the proposed Article 98
Agreement with the U.S.) (Note: We had already delivered our
response to the GOL's draft agreement and took the opportunity
on March 16 to provide another copy for the Foreign Minister and
one for the Attorney General. We have not received a response
to our points delivered March 8. End Note) The Foreign
Minister's situation was not clarified during our March 14
meeting with Minister of Tourism Nts'inyi. There was a decided
reluctance to discuss it and to shy away from any comment on the
state of his health, the response of the government, or any
police investigation. She said the security environment was
stable following the January 29 incident. Nts'inyi, former GOL
Ambassador to Germany, on the other hand, went to great lengths
to express her appreciation for our bilateral relationship and
for the sustained U.S. interest in supporting Lesotho's
electoral processes. She stated that her government and her
party were most interested in peace, stability and orderly 2007
national elections. We emphasized how important it was to build
on Lesotho's democratic process to date and stated our
commitment to support an open and fair process over the coming
year. For the first time in over a year, Nts'inyi was named
Acting Foreign Minister on March 17. Her designation, which

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usually falls to the Minister of Local Government or the
Minister of Justice, is interesting, coming in conjunction with
her elevated status in the LCD ruling party.


4. (C) Minister of Finance Thahane shared with us, before our
meeting with Nts'inyi, his doubts about obtaining a full account
concerning Minister of Foreign Affairs January attack. He made
no mention of any subsequent "ambush" upon the Foreign Minister.
Thahane, in his role as special representative of the global
fund, as well as in his full time portfolio focused also on the
importance of stability. We raised with Thahane the necessity
of continued progress on the bilateral front and our positive
exchanges on the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) as Lesotho's
interministerial committee continues to prepare its proposal.
Although viewed by some as more of an outside player, within the
Cabinet Thahane's voice clearly makes a difference in sending a
strong, positive message to donors and to the international
community at large. In a later conversation, Thahane revealed
that bilateral issues to include the MCC proposal and the
proposed Article 98 Agreement were scheduled to occur during an
April 20 session. It appears, given the large amount of press
he has been given during the budget meetings, that Thahane's
profile is rising somewhat and that each public statement he
makes includes positive reinforcement for investors and donors.
We observed that Thahane represented the Prime Minister during a
March 10 ground breaking for a new hospital in Maseru; he hosted
us at a follow-on lunch with business representatives from
South Africa.


5. (C) At the same event, the Minister of Health reaffirmed
Lesotho's interest in working with the private sector as well as
donors in improving health care, particularly in the area of
HIV/AIDS. In a meeting with the Ambassador, Minister Phooko
requested additional assistance in analyzing the organizational
needs of his Ministry. We indicated that we would continue to
support the leadership of the government of Lesotho in moving
forward on the HIV/AIDS issue and we were in the process of
reviewing our long term strategy. (Comment: Minister of
Finance Thahane in the same timeframe shared his impression that
the Ministry of Health was disorganized and asked for our help
in securing an overall director for the country's "Know Your
Status Campaign". End Comment). Minister Phooko in response to
our query on the implementation of the "Know Your Status
Campaign", stated that he had put together a task force in the
Ministry to begin addressing this problem and he hoped for
assistance from the international community in this regard. In
addition to reassuring the Minister of all of our support, both
directly through the USG programs as well as through NGOs such
as CARE, CRS, etc., we felt it was important during this time of
critical pandemic to maintain stability within the country and
to maintain sustained progress, particularly during the
pre-electoral months ahead. The Minister, a relative of Prime
Minister Mosisili, confirmed Minister Nts'inyi's assertion that
the Government is committed to peaceful elections and to
maintaining a tranquil and secure environment within Lesotho.
Although the Minister of Health is viewed by the press and by
the public as less competent than some of his Cabinet
colleagues, he has continued to hold on to his position and,
despite some criticism from the First Lady, appears to have a
special relationship with the Prime Minister. In donors'
opinions, Phooko's Ministry has serious human capacity needs and
weaknesses; the international community has been offering
technical assistance to him, especially in the HIV/AIDS arena.


6. COMMENT: Although it is not possible to predict
developments over the coming months, it seems that the LCD is
assessing how best to move forward to secure its place and
leadership role during the national elections. As part of this
process, the Minister of Tourism has been tasked to intercede
for the Prime Minister with the Independent Electoral Commission
(IEC) to ensure that current commissioners continue to hold
their positions as the country moves into the pre-electoral
period. She has taken on the responsibility of assessing the
opposition party's desire to end the terms of a number of
commissioners and go into the 2007 elections with experienced
members on the IEC. The fact that the Minister has moved into
this high profile position of great responsibility as the party
begins its preparations suggests that she will be playing a
highly visible and important role in the year ahead.
Concurrently, the conflicting stories and swirl of rumors around
the Minister of Foreign Affairs have raised questions among
government officials, diplomats and the public about his
standing in the party, internal conflicts within the LCD and
possible Cabinet changes. From our vantage point, on the whole
all of these key players in the LCD constellation have reflected
a desire to insure stability in the political and economic
spheres and to send a strong message to the U.S. that the GOL is
serious about a potential Article 98 Agreement and about the
Millennium Challenge Account (MCA). Our dialogue with these and
other players including opposition and private sector elements
are, we believe, continuing to reveal more about the inner

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workings of the LCD and the strength or weaknesses of the
officers within it. End Comment.
PERRY