DEFENSE SECRETARY SEES KAPIT BISIG AS "BIG PLUS"

S E C R E T MANILA 003066

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MTS
USPACOM FOR FPA HUSO
SECDEF/OSD/ISA/AP FOR TULLAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2016
TAGS: MOPS MCAP MARR PTER PREL RP
SUBJECT: DEFENSE SECRETARY SEES KAPIT BISIG AS "BIG PLUS"
TO CT EFFORTS

REF: MANILA 2937

Classified By: (U) Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Defense Secretary Cruz views the Kapit Bisig
framework as a "big plus" for US-RP counterterrorism
cooperation, is focused on neutralizing High Value Targets,
and believes the Kapit Bisig implementing guidelines are
flexible enough to accommodate a variety of circumstances.
He takes the long view on the Communist insurgency,
predicting it will take 6-10 years to defeat it using
military and socio-economic tools. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In private talks with DCM at the July 18 Philippine
Defense Reform (PDR) talks, Secretary of National Defense
Cruz expressed satisfaction at the successful conclusion of
the Kapit Bisig counterterrorism framework negotiations
(reftel),saying that it was "a big plus" to the common goal
of eliminating terrorism.


3. (S) Cruz said he viewed the accompanying implementing
guidelines as a standing offer of US assistance that
Philippine commanders could draw upon, should the need arise,
to support their counterterrorism operations. He
particularly focused on their flexibility to accommodate
operations necessary to neutralize High Value Targets. The
Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) had already developed
several potential areas of cooperation in addition to those
in the implementing guidelines -- such as joint intelligence
fusion and analysis centers; joint civil-military and
psychological operations; and use of precision-guided
munitions delivered from either AFP or U.S. (with
accompanying AFP crew) platforms. "Let's gain experience and
see the gaps," Cruz said, adding that he hoped the US
interaction with the AFP would provide "a scientific basis"
for determining what new equipment the Philippine military
needed to acquire themselves.


4. (C) Asked about press reporting that the Administration
hoped to defeat the Communist insurgency in two years, Cruz
ascribed the remark to Presidential Advisor Mike Defensor and
called Defensor's remarks "unrealistic." He said that
President Arroyo had never made that prediction, and that he
told her it would take 6-10 years strategically to defeat the
NPA. The campaign to defeat the Huk rebellion in the 1950's
and the successful effort by the Ramos administration against
the Communist Party of the Philippines/New People's Army
(CPP/NPA) in the 1990's had each taken 6-10 years. Cruz
noted that the decline in CPP/NPA strength from its peak of
26,000 insurgents in 1987 to 4,500 in 1997 had been helped by
dramatic improvements in the economy. We need to repeat what
we did earlier, Cruz said, observing that already CPP/NPA
strength, currently estimated at 7,500 insurgents, was
declining at the rate of 13% per year. He believed that the
"Kalayaan Barangay" program aimed at improving the
socio-economic conditions of under serviced communities in
Communist and Muslim insurgent areas could help win back the
population to the government's side. "We need to under
promise and over deliver," Cruz concluded.


5. (C) COMMENT. Cruz is right to take the long view about
the NPA insurgency. While the GRP just announced it will
allocate 700 million pesos ($13.4 million) to the AFP and 300
million pesos ($5.7 million) to the Philippine National
Police to eliminate the NPA, it will require a sustained
effort of military operations and socio-economic programs to
defeat the Communist threat and to win over Muslim separatist
groups. However, other officials differ. The incoming Chief
of Staff, Lieutenant General Esperon, reiterated the two-year
pledge during his July 21 change of command ceremony.


Visit Embassy Manila's Classified website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm
Kenney