Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MANAMA869
2006-05-17 14:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Manama
Cable title:  

AL WIFAQ ENCOURAGED BY REACTION TO PARTICIPATION

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM BA POL REFORM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8051
OO RUEHDE
DE RUEHMK #0869/01 1371425
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 171425Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4735
INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHBVAKS/COMUSNAVCENT PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000869 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM BA POL REFORM
SUBJECT: AL WIFAQ ENCOURAGED BY REACTION TO PARTICIPATION
VOTE, OUTLINES PLANS

REF: MANAMA 765

Classified By: DCM Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000869

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM BA POL REFORM
SUBJECT: AL WIFAQ ENCOURAGED BY REACTION TO PARTICIPATION
VOTE, OUTLINES PLANS

REF: MANAMA 765

Classified By: DCM Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Al Wifaq's May 1 decision to participate in this
year's parliamentary elections prompted expressions of
support from both King Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa and leading
Shi'a cleric Shaikh Isa Qassim. In a May 3 press conference,
Al Wifaq Secretary General Shaikh Ali Salman made the formal
announcement to participate and outlined Al Wifaq's agenda
leading up to the elections and after the new parliament
convenes. He focused on constitutional changes, election
district imbalances, and the need for election monitoring,
while declaring Al Wifaq's opposition to the military being
allowed to vote. Al Wifaq elections chairman Jawad Fairooz
outlined in a separate meeting with PolOff that the GOB
continues to throw obstacles on the table as attempts to
minimize the success of the opposition in the next election.
Nonetheless, he concludes that Shi'a candidates, including Al
Wifaq and independent Shi'a, could win 18 seats in the next
parliament, and alliances with other opposition political
societies could add two or three opposition Sunni or secular
seats. Al Wifaq consultative (Shura) council member Majeed
Milad confirmed that Al Wifaq's membership is pleased with
the decision to participate and is looking for the Royal
Court to show its appreciation by bringing concessions to the
table. He also said that leading Shi'a cleric Isa Qassim is
expected to be vocal this election season. End summary.

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Congratulations from All Sides
--------------


2. (C) In the wake of leading Shi'a opposition political
society Al Wifaq's decision on May 1 to participate in
legislative elections (reftel),Minister of the Royal Court
Shaikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa placed a call May 3 to Al
Wifaq Secretary General Shaikh Ali Salman to convey King
Hamad's congratulations for taking this important step. He
said that the King stressed that Al Wifaq's participation
would enhance democratic progress and reform in Bahrain.
Leading Shi'a cleric Isa Qassim gave his nod to the decision

in his May 5 Friday sermon saying, "We acknowledge the right
of the peaceful opposition to take advantage of the
constitution and the national charter, but most importantly
we want to make sure that it takes the green light from
legitimate religious sources." A source close to Al Wifaq
indicated that Shaikh Ali was seeking to obtain a fatwa from
prominent Shi'a clerics (Marja'iya) outside the country.
Such religious edicts would encourage the Shi'a in Bahrain to
vote and support the election and thus undermine the argument
being made by those still supporting an election boycott,
most notably the Shi'a hard-line Haq Movement.

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Al Wifaq to Target Sensitive Issues
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3. (U) Shaikh Ali and chairman of Al Wifaq's Shura council
Dr. Abd Ali Hassan held a press conference May 3 to
officially announce Al Wifaq's decision to break from the
four-year boycott. Shaikh Ali said that constitutional
changes will be the top priority for Al Wifaq members once in
parliament. He echoed this point in his Friday sermon May 5,
saying that attempts to amend the constitution would
continue, including pressure from the Bahraini street. In an
interview May 15 with an English daily, Shaikh Ali commented
further, saying that Bahrain needed to return to "most of"
the 1973 constitution, which had been approved by the people.
The existence of a 40-member Parliamentary Shura Council
that is appointed entirely by the King "is not democratic."


4. (U) Regarding the elections, Shaikh Ali described the
gerrymandered constituency distribution as a major concern
for Al Wifaq. Votes in Southern Governorate districts can
equal as many as 23 votes in districts elsewhere. He
proposed a single constituency system whereby the ballots of
all voters country-wide would be tallied together and
parliamentary seats would be distributed based on the
national vote. He proposed that the military not be allowed
to vote since it is highly influenced by the government and
therefore unfairly biased. He also advocated that local and
international organizations be allowed to observe the
elections. In terms of legislation current before
parliament, Shaikh Ali pointed to the need for more press
freedom and wider allowances for freedom of assembly.

MANAMA 00000869 002 OF 003




5. (C) In a May 6 meeting with PolOff, Al Wifaq Chairman of
the High Council for Elections Jawad Fairooz accused the GOB
of looking for new ways to limit the presence of the
opposition in the Council of Representatives (COR). He
pointed to recently proposed legislation that would prohibit
for ten years the election participation of anyone who had
been sentenced to more than six months in prison. If this
law were enacted, a large number of opposition members would
be unable to vote or run in the upcoming elections. Fairooz
said that there were many members of the opposition who
served jail time in the late 1990's due to their alleged
involvement in the civil strife. Fairooz also pointed to the
reported 25,000 to 30,000 individuals who live in Saudi
Arabia's Eastern Province, but have Bahraini citizenship and
are able to vote in the election. Since they are not tied to
an address in Bahrain, and therefore a particular district,
Fairooz fears that this floating vote can be used by the
government where needed to tip the scales its way in close
races.

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Expectations for the Road Ahead
--------------


6. (C) In a conversation with EmbOff May 16, Manama
Municipal Council member and Al Wifaq Shura council member
Majeed Milad said that Al Wifaq supporters are very pleased
with their leaders' decision, because they have not been
satisfied with the performance of current MPs and would like
to see opposition leaders address their concerns. He said
that Al Wifaq and its supporters expect more from the Royal
Court than a congratulatory phone call and a paragraph in the
press. Al Wifaq has been supportive of the King's reform
agenda and would like to see the palace reciprocate with more
significant concessions. The King should address issues
related to constitutional amendments, naturalization of
non-Bahrainis, and sectarianism. Turning to dynamics in the
Shi'a community, Milad referred back to 2002 when Shaikh Isa
Qassim was not in favor of Al Wifaq's decision to boycott
that election but remained silent so that society membership
would not be split. Shaikh Isa has indicated that he will
not be quiet this time but will lend his support whenever
needed, including to help counter the message by political
leaders in the Haq Movement who are urging people to continue
the boycott.

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Al Wifaq Takes Stock
--------------


7. (U) Al Wifaq's entry to the political fold culminates a
several month process that began in early November 2005 when
Al Wifaq registered under the Political Societies Law of July
2005 and thereby gained legal legitimacy. Shaikh Ali told
the press that in 2002 Al Wifaq and other opposition
political societies were compelled to reject the changes in
the 2002 Constitution that limited the power parliament
exercised previously under the 1973 Constitution. Attempting
to paint the last four years in the brightest of colors, he
said that Al Wifaq had achieved its goal of highlighting the
problems in the 2002 Constitution for the local and
international communities and was now prepared to accomplish
what it had not been able to do outside the political system.
Shaikh Ali explained that though the four boycotting
societies formed a foundation for an alliance within the
system, the door was open to coordination with any other
political societies that have similar policy priorities.
However, in cooperating with others, Al Wifaq will not give
up a seat in any district where Al Wifaq is likely to win.


8. (U) Turning to Al Wifaq's internal nomination process,
Shaikh Ali explained that the General Secretariat (Al Wifaq's
Executive Cabinet) will draw up a list of suitable candidates
for all legislative districts in which it can be competitive.
After discussion and approval by the Shura council, the
society will announce its candidates. Al Wifaq may support
candidates from other political societies and independents
with whom it has found common ground. Candidates for
municipal council elections will go through a similar process
with one notable exception. Since over 50 potential
candidates have already expressed interest in running for the
municipal councils, Al Wifaq's municipal council committee
will screen them before the General Secretariat generates its
list.

--------------
Possible Opposition Majority in the COR
--------------


MANAMA 00000869 003 OF 003



9. (C) Shaikh Ali continues to state publicly that Al Wifaq
will win 12 to 14 seats. While he personally has not yet
committed to running, saying it is the society's decision
whom it will ask to run, privately Al Wifaq members say that
Shaikh Ali will run and win easily. Jawad Fairooz
anticipated that the Shi'a, comprising Al Wifaq members and
independent Shi'a, will win 18 seats, a full 50% increase
over current Shi'a representation in the COR. In addition,
according to Fairooz, opposition alliances with Sunni and
secular candidates (from Al Wa'ad, for example) could result
in two to three additional seats.

--------------
Comment
--------------


10. (C) Over the last several weeks Al Wifaq's decision to
participate in the elections has generated some significant
momentum leading into the campaign season. From the Al Wifaq
General Secretariat's April 22 recommendation to its Shura in
favor of participation, the Shura's May 1 vote, the May 3
press conference, and now continuing follow-up press stories,
Al Wifaq has figured prominently in the news following
several months of quiet while the group focused on internal
organizational issues. Al Wifaq's decision to participate
likely came sooner than the group had wanted. A senior
member told EmbOff that Al Wifaq wanted to announce its
participation only after the government had specified the
dates for the municipal and parliamentary elections. But
with the government either floating or implementing policies
that could be viewed as anti-opposition, the society decided
to act before the prevailing political environment within the
Shi'a community became less favorable, thus possibly
complicating a decision to participate.

MONROE