Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MANAMA818
2006-05-09 11:40:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Manama
Cable title:  

CENTRAL COMMAND GENERAL ABIZAID'S MAY 8 MEETING

Tags:  PREL MARR MOPS BA IR IZ REGION BILAT OFFICIALS 
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VZCZCXRO8256
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHMK #0818/01 1291140
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 091140Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4681
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHBVAKS/COMUSNAVCENT PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000818 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS BA IR IZ REGION BILAT OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: CENTRAL COMMAND GENERAL ABIZAID'S MAY 8 MEETING
WITH CROWN PRINCE SALMAN

Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000818

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS BA IR IZ REGION BILAT OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: CENTRAL COMMAND GENERAL ABIZAID'S MAY 8 MEETING
WITH CROWN PRINCE SALMAN

Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Centcom Commander General Abizaid met with Crown
Prince Salman May 8 and discussed the May 6 GCC Consultative
Meeting in Riyadh, the Iranian threat, building up defenses
in the Gulf, and the situation in Iraq. The CP said the GCC
leaders were far more cooperative towards each other than in
previous sessions ("Intra-GCC squabbles are now off the
table"),reflecting how seriously they are taking the Iranian
threat. The GCC wants to get a handle on the possible
environmental risks of an armed confrontation or nuclear
accident. He recommended that if there are to be
hostilities, the goal must be removing the Iranian regime
rather than just a punitive strike, which would serve to
embolden the leadership. Iran is engaged in a charm
offensive with the Gulf States to show it is a neighbor in
good standing. He said that the GCC had decided to send
Omani Deputy PM Sayyid Fahd to Iran to deliver a message and
seek assurances on the nuclear program. General Abizaid
suggested building a shared early warning system and
improving air defense capabilities in the Gulf. The CP
expressed interest in leasing PAC-3 batteries and noted the
coming TPS-59 radar system would improve Bahrain's
integration with allies. On Iraq, Shaikh Salman said Iran
would try to keep Iraq weak, and he recommended the U.S.
track flows of funds from Iran to Iraqi groups. End Summary.

--------------
GCC Taking Iranian Threat Seriously
--------------


2. (C) In their May 8 meeting, Crown Prince Shaikh Salman
bin Hamad Al Khalifa provided Central Command' General
Abizaid with a briefing on the GCC heads of state
Consultative Meeting held in Riyadh on May 6. He commented
that the mood at the meeting, which his father King Hamad
attended, was far more cooperative than in previous sessions.
Intra-GCC squabbles are now off the table. This indicates
that the GCC leaders are taking the Iranian threat very

seriously. A paper on Iran was circulated describing the
threat. The leaders want to mitigate the impact of a
possible escalation and get a better handle on the possible
environmental risks of a confrontation with Iran or a nuclear
accident there.


3. (C) The Crown Prince said it would be unwise to provoke
Iran militarily while the diplomatic track is in train. If
there are to be hostilities, the goal must be to remove the
regime, not just deliver a punitive strike, which would
embolden the leadership. He sees a confrontation coming with
Iran either this year or next year. The current Iranian
"charm offensive," he said, is annoying, just a public
relations exercise. (Note: Iranian Foreign Minister Motakki
was in Bahrain the same day and saw the King.) Iran wants to
be seen in public with Gulf leaders to leave the impression
that it is a neighbor in good standing. Bahraini policy is
to meet with Iranian officials, speak positively about
relations, but tell them that they need to reassure their
neighbors that concerns about the nuclear program are being
accommodated. The CP said he personally avoids the Iranians.
When he is forced to see them, he tells them they are not
doing the right thing.

--------------
Omani Envoy to Deliver GCC Message to Tehrn
--------------

4. (C) In response to General Abizaid's question Shaikh
Salman said that the GCC countries will ull back from their
diplomatic engagement with Iran when the time comes to do so.
He said the GCCleaders had decided to send Omani Deputy
Prime Mnister Sayyid Fahd Al Said to Iran to deliver a
essage and to seek assurances on the nuclear progrm. The
Omani was chosen because of his country'srelationship with
Iran. The purported reason fo the trip is to express
concerns about possible nvironmental damage from the nuclear
program, bu the envoy will indirectly address the enrichment
program. The Crown Prince suggested that the mostviable
diplomatic channel for achieving results ould be direct
engagement between the U.S. and Iran. But the U.S. position
should be viewed as one of strength. To reinforce the point,
U.S. forces should consider a joint military exercise in the
Gulf region.

MANAMA 00000818 002 OF 002




5. (C) General Abizaid proposed building up the defenses of
our allies in the Gulf, looking specifically at a shared
early warning system and improving air defense capabilities.
The CP replied that he had discussed with Secretary Rumsfeld
the possibility of deploying Patriots in Bahrain and making
an exception for Bahrain's Stinger missiles. At the
bilateral Military Coordination Committee meeting coming
later this month, Bahrain will ask to lease PAC-3 batteries
and place them around the island. This is an affordable way
to upgrade Bahrain's defenses. Also, the TPS-59 radar system
will be coming soon, and this will improve Bahrain's ability
to integrate more broadly with allies. General Abizaid noted
that the Saudis were also interested in establishing and
integrating an early warning architecture. He had discussed
missile defense with the Egyptians and Jordanians. The Gulf
as well as other areas must be defended, and these countries
would provide strategic depth. Additionally, the Israelis
should feel that they would not be subject to nuclear attack.
The CP stated that Bahrain has more in common these days
with Israel than with Iran.

--------------
U.S., NATO Security Umbrella
--------------


6. (C) Returning to a point he has raised several times
before, the CP suggested the U.S. or NATO put the GCC under
some sort of security umbrella, or the U.S. could issue a
statement that it would defend the region in the event of a
WMD attack. The GCC is feeling trapped between Iran and
Israel, and is worried about being caught in a regional arms
race. With the high price of oil, some regional countries
were considering launching their own nuclear programs, such
as establishing educational reactors at universities. This
is not a good development.

--------------
Iraq, Syria
--------------


7. (C) General Abizaid said that Iran's support for Iraqi
Shia splinter groups that attack coalition forces is
unacceptable. Iran is sadly mistaken if it thinks that an
attack along the lines of the 1983 Marine Barracks bombing in
Lebanon will drive out the U.S. Turning to Iraq, Shaikh
Salman said it is a very difficult process to rebuild
institutions from scratch. It is important that an effective
government come into power soon. Iran will try to flex its
muscles and keep Iraq weak, doing its best to sabotage the
political process. The U.S. should adopt a broad-based
approach to stop Iranian interference, including tracking the
flow of money from Iran to Iraqi groups. Agents working on
behalf of Iran must be exposed and pay a price. In response
to General Abizaid's question, the CP thought Jordan was best
positioned to understand the Iraqi Sunnis and their political
dynamic.


8. (C) General Abizaid asked about ways to draw Syria away
from Iran. The CP said he would think about it, but
emphasized that efforts to mitigate Iran's influence in Arab
countries not be seen as an attack on Shia Islam. The GOB is
careful to say that it is against certain acts, not against
Shias.

MONROE