Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MANAMA765
2006-05-02 11:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Manama
Cable title:  

SHIA OPPOSITION SOCIETY AL WIFAQ TO PARTICIPATE IN

Tags:  PGOV KDEM KISL BA POL REFORM 
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OO RUEHDE
DE RUEHMK #0765/01 1221133
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 021133Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4616
INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN PRIORITY 1209
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 0631
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 0805
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 1149
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV PRIORITY 3553
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM PRIORITY 2609
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHBVAKS/COMUSNAVCENT PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000765 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL BA POL REFORM
SUBJECT: SHIA OPPOSITION SOCIETY AL WIFAQ TO PARTICIPATE IN
ELECTIONS

Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000765

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL BA POL REFORM
SUBJECT: SHIA OPPOSITION SOCIETY AL WIFAQ TO PARTICIPATE IN
ELECTIONS

Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Leading Shia opposition society Al Wifaq May 1 voted
in favor of participating in the parliamentary elections to
be held later this year after boycotting the 2002 polls.
Secretary General Shaikh Ali Salman told the press that the

SIPDIS
decision to participate was in line with the society's
mission to improve the political atmosphere for citizens.
Foreign Affairs Head Saeed Al Majed told EmbOff that Al Wifaq
needed to establish a power base in the lower house Council
of Representatives (COR) so it could negotiate more
effectively with the government to promote its policy agenda.
A source close to Al Wifaq said that the group had decided
to move at this time because of indications that the
government might soon take steps that would be viewed as
against the Shia, thus souring the political environment and
making it more difficult for Al Wifaq to announce its
participation. Noting opposition among many Shia youth, the
source felt that a statement by spiritual leader Shaikh Issa
Qassem, along the lines of Ayatollah Sistani's fatwa in Iraq,
would be necessary to encourage broad participation by the
Shia community. Another boycotting group, the small liberal
secular Al Waad society, also announced its decision to
participate. Al Wifaq's participation represents a paradigm
shift in Bahrain's political system and will result in a
messier, more confrontational, but ultimately more democratic
environment. End Summary.

--------------
As Expected, Al Wifaq Votes to Participate
--------------


2. (U) In a move that was widely expected, leading Shia
opposition society Al Wifaq officially decided to participate
in the fall parliamentary elections after a four-year boycott
of the political system. The society's internal consultative
("Shura") council the evening of May 1 approved by a vote of
20-5 (with five members absent) the recommendation of the
General Secretariat to field candidates in the parliamentary
elections. Al Wifaq had already stated publicly that it

would compete in the municipal council elections, which will
also likely be held in the fall.


3. (U) In a statement to the press, Secretary General Shaikh
Ali Salman said, "For four years we have been working for a
better political atmosphere for citizens, and our decision
(to participate) reinforces our mission and programs." A
statement issued by the society continued, "Taking part in
the elections does not mean that the legislative body or
constituencies are perfect. It comes from our belief that
political participation would help us gain power to deliver
the demands of the people to those in power." The statement
said the group would participate because the boycott had
resulted in the approval of many laws against the interests
of Al Wifaq.


4. (U) Shura Council member and spokesman Ali Hamad Hassan
told the press that the decision was in line with the views
of Shaikh Issa Qassem, the group's spiritual leader.
Hardline Shia leader Hassan Mushaima, head of the breakaway
Haq Movement and until last October Vice President of Al
Wifaq, said publicly that the decision did not come as a
surprise. The Haq Movement is not in confrontation with Al
Wifaq, he said, but it was up to the people to decide whether
participation or boycotting was the best way for them to
achieve their goals and ambitions.

-------------- ---
Participation to Create Power Base in Parliament
-------------- ---


5. (C) Al Wifaq Head of Foreign Affairs Saeed Al Majed told
Pol/Econ Chief that the Secretariat had been confident it had
the votes in the Shura Council, and it was pleased with the
outcome. He said the response thus far to the decision was
uniformly positive. He had received calls from Al Wifaq
members, government ministers, and parliamentarians
congratulating them on the decision. Al Majed said Al

MANAMA 00000765 002 OF 002


Wifaq's goal in participating in the elections is to have
strong representation in the elected Council of
Representatives. He had told P/E Chief previously that Al
Wifaq was not interested in "getting the chair" of the King
or Prime Minister. Rather, the group wants to negotiate with
the government from a position of strength, based upon its
representation in the COR, to promote its policy agenda,
obtain a few ministerial positions, and place members in the
appointed upper house of parliament, the Shura Council. He
said the group's legislative agenda would focus on amending
the constitution, combating unemployment, making housing more
widely available, and fighting official corruption.


6. (C) According to a source close to Al Wifaq, the group
decided to move at this time because of indications the
government might take actions viewed as against the Shia
community, such as arresting Haq Movement leaders or trying
to pass a budget during the current session rather than the
post-election session. While these moves may not directly
impact Al Wifaq, they would sour the political environment
and make it more difficult for Al Wifaq to announce its
participation. The source noted that even without these
complicating factors, reactions to the decision in the
Internet chatroom "Bahrain On-Line," frequented mostly by
youth, were strongly negative. He thought that Shaikh Qassem
would have to issue a statement or a fatwa, along the lines
of Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq, in favor of participation in
order to bring along the dissenters in the community.

--------------
Al Waad to Contest Elections Also
--------------


7. (C) Ibrahim Sharif, president of the liberal secular
opposition society Al Waad, also announced recently that his
group would participate in the elections after boycotting the
2002 polls. While a very small group, Al Waad's decision to
participate is important symbolically because of its
historical role in Bahraini politics, in particular in the
parliament of the early 1970s.

--------------
Comment
--------------


8. (C) Al Wifaq's decision to participate represents a major
paradigm shift in Bahrain's political system, with the
potential to impact almost every aspect of Bahrain's
legislative and executive governance. Estimates vary widely
on Al Wifaq's expected representation in the COR, ranging
from 12 to 20 seats in the 40-member body. Those most
directly affected will be the COR's current Shia MPs, who
stood for election in defiance of Al Wifaq's boycott in 2002.
Al Wifaq will certainly target these seats and, unless the
present MPs strike an alliance with the group, Al Wifaq is
expected to win most if not all of these races. The most
active political blocs in the COR have been the Sunni
Islamist groups, Al Minbar (Muslim Brotherhood) and Al Asala
(Salafi). Despite it also being an Islamist party, Al Wifaq
has said that it will not ally itself with the Sunnis, saying
it does not share the Sunnis' legislative agenda focusing on
public behavior in accordance with Islamic teachings. The
government will find the COR to be more combative than it is
currently, and will face a group with an activist agenda to
amend the constitution and promote the bread-and-butter
interests of the Shia community. Al Wifaq's participation in
Bahraini politics will undoubtedly result in a messier, more
confrontational, but ultimately more democratic political
environment.

MONROE