MINISTER DISCUSSES ELECTION ISSUES WITH AMBASSADOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000646

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KMPI BA POL
SUBJECT: MINISTER DISCUSSES ELECTION ISSUES WITH AMBASSADOR

REF: MANAMA 549

Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe. Reason: 1.4 (B)(D)


1. (C) Summary. The Ambassador, in an April 15 meeting with
King confidant Hassan Fakhro, raised concerns about NDI's
status in Bahrain as well as apparent harassment of local NGO
Bahrain Transparency Society. Fakhro provided some clarity
on plans for this year's elections, saying the government is
working on three key issues: merging the municipal and
parliamentary elections for cost and administrative reasons;
extending the legal date by which the municipal elections
must be held so that they can be held in the fall; and
finding a date in the fall -- a matter complicated by the
timing of Ramadan, which this year starts in late September.
Fakhro said that the King recognizes that uncertainty on the
dates of the parliamentary elections has raised concerns,
which may have been alleviated somewhat by Minister of
Cabinet Affairs Shaikh Ahmed Atiyatallah's strong
reaffirmation last week that elections will be held this
year. End summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador met April 15 with Minister of Industry
and Commerce Hassan Fakhro, a close confidant of the King, to
get his thoughts on the political climate in Bahrain in the
run-up to municipal and parliamentary elections this year.
The Ambassador began by reviewing some recent developments
that, taken together, suggested a possible drift in Bahrain's
commitment to democratic reform. First, there was the
continued impasse on NDI's status and ability to operate in
Bahrain. The fact that NDI was raised in the Crown Prince's
recent meetings at the State Department and NSC highlighted
the importance of this issue to the USG. The Ambassador
raised it again with the CP earlier this month (reftel),and
plans to discuss it with the Foreign Minister when he returns
to Bahrain. Deputy National Security Advisor Elliott Abrams
has written to the Foreign Minister suggesting a possible
solution, but in the meantime we are left with an
unacceptable draft MOU presented by the Bahrain Institute for
Political Development (BIPD).


3. (C) Second, the Bahrain Transparency Society (BTS),which
receives MEPI funding for several programs, has been
investigated by the Ministry of Social Development for
several minor infractions. The effect has been to slow down
and hamper the ability of BTS to operate. BTS is now in the
process of reorganizing itself to meet Ministry requirements,
but the close scrutiny of its operations has had the
appearance of harassment. BTS is an important civil society
organization in Bahrain that hopes to monitor the 2006
elections, as it did in 2002. Finally, continuing uncertainty
about elections dates, the proposed merging of the municipal
and parliamentary elections, and the possible aligning of
municipal and parliamentary electoral districts has fed
doubts about the government's commitment to holding elections
this year. The Ambassador acknowledged that Minister of
Cabinet Affairs Shaikh Ahmed Atiyatalla's strong
reaffirmation last week that the elections would be held this
year helped alleviate concerns, but until the election
details are formally announced there will inevitably be
worries.


4. (C) Fakhro stated that he thought the NDI issue could be
worked out, and put the blame for the current difficulties on
BIPD head Lulwa Al-Awadi, who he said can be tough to work
with. When the Ambassador suggested that palace support for
NDI appeared to have weakened, Fakhro disagreed and said that
the palace wanted to disengage itself from a direct role on
NDI, but that he was not aware of any change in attitude.
(Comment: We believe that the King and Minster of Royal Court
Shaikh Khalid have in fact cooled to some degree on NDI and
its activities in Bahrain. End comment.) Fakhro said that
he planned to meet with the Crown Prince later in the day,
and would discuss the NDI issue with him. He had no specific
observation on BTS, other than to say that Minister of Social
Development Fatima Balooshi, like Lulwa Al-Awadi, can be
tough to deal with.


5. (C) On the election timetable, Fakhro said that he had
been at Safriya Palace the previous night with the King who,
in effect acknowledging that election timetable uncertainties
had created doubts, stated that the government had been wrong
not to categorically deny weeks ago rumors that there would
be a delay in the elections. Fakhro added that one source of
the rumors of a possible delay is sitting parliamentarians
who fear -- with the expected participation of Shia
opposition society Al-Wifaq -- that they will lose their
seats. They would like to delay the elections as long as
possible to extend their time in parliament.


6. (C) Fakhro stated that, in trying to nail down dates for
the elections, the government was looking at three issues:
holding the municipal and parliamentary elections at the same

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time, extending the date by which the municipal elections can
be held so they can be legally delayed to the fall, and
finding an appropriate date to hold the elections. On the
question of holding the two elections on the same date, he
said that the government would like to so because it was
cheaper and easier to administer. The government had wanted
to merge the two elections in 2002, but hadn't managed to do
so. The Ambassador asked about concerns that unifying the
two elections and unifying municipal and parliamentary
districts might lead to a redistricting that would increase
the number of MPs representing the lightly populated (mostly
Sunni) southern district at the expense of more populous Shia
districts. Fakhro dismissed that possibility, saying that,
if implemented, he expected the municipal districts to match
the existing parliamentary districts (in other words, there
would be no change in the number of representatives from the
southern governorate).


7. (C) To address the need to delay the municipal elections,
which by law should be held every four years (in other words,
by May),Fakhro stated that the Cabinet has approved a law
which would give the King the authority to extend the life of
the municipal councils by six months, or until November. The
more difficult issue is when exactly to hold the elections,
which is complicated by Ramadan, which will start this year
on September 23. If the elections are held before Ramadan,
campaigning would have to take place in July or August, which
would be difficult with so many people away on vacation.
Otherwise, elections will have to wait until after Ramadan --
late October or November.


8. (C) Another complication, Fakhro stated, is the budget
debate. The Cabinet has been reviewing the budget bill in
committee, and expects to forward it to the parliament in the
first two weeks in May. Ideally, the parliament would pass
the budget before it adjourns at the end of June. However,
if it does approve the budget, the new parliament, which is
expected to have a dramatically different composition with
the participation in the elections of Al-Wifaq, may object to
a budget that it did not pass. But if they leave the budget
to the next parliament, at best it will not convene until
after Ramadan in late October, and at worst not until the end
of the year if the elections are put off until after Ramadan.
By law, the budget is supposed to be approved by October, he
stated.


9. (C) On the budget process more generally, Fakhro said that
new Finance Minister Shaikh Ahmed al-Khalifa has improved the
process markedly. The last draft budget under the previous
Finance Minister, Abdullah Seif, was presented to the Cabinet
so late that there was no opportunity to review it before
passing it on to the parliament. The Cabinet simply rubber
stamped the Finance Ministry's presentation. This year, the
Cabinet's finance committee has had a chance to discuss the
draft budget for three weeks in a row, giving Ministers a
chance to review and provide input.


10. (C) Finally, the Ambassador noted recent rumors that
small-scale demonstrations and clashes carried out by small
groups of Shia youth have actually been instigated by former
Ministry of Interior informers (from the days of Shia
violence in the 1990s),which would suggest that the
government may be stoking the Shia extremists as a tactic to
discredit Shia in the run-up to the election. Fakhro, who
was aware of the rumors, dismissed them as "rubbish," saying
it is outrageous to think that the Ministry of Interior might
be behind these incidents. (Note: the press reported on
April 16 that the Interior Ministry arrested eight men on
charges of illegal assembly, damaging public property, and
arson, including burning tires and setting fire to garbage
bins. They will be held in custody for 15 days for further
investigation, according to press reports.)
MONROE