COUNSELOR ZELIKOW DISCUSSES IRAN AND IRAQ WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000443

SIPDIS

STATE FOR C, NEA, NEA/ARP, NEA/IR, NEA/I

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2016
TAGS: PREL PARM PTER MARR EFIN KISL KNNP BA IR IZ BILAT OFFICIALS REGION
SUBJECT: COUNSELOR ZELIKOW DISCUSSES IRAN AND IRAQ WITH
SHURA COUNCIL MEMBERS

Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: State Department Counselor Zelikow met
March 12 with Shura Council members Dr. Khalid Bin Khalifa Al
Khalifa and Ibrahim Mohamed Bashmi, both of whom are on the
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and National Security Committee, to
discuss Iraq, Iran and domestic issues in Bahrain. Dr.
Khalid said that the U.S. needs to make more of an effort to
involve Iraqi tribes along the border with Iran in the
political process and in border security. The new Iraqi army
and police need to be seen as diverse and representative of
all Iraqis. He does not think southern Shia naturally look
to Iran as the leader of global Shiism, but Iraqi and Iranian
clerics may both vie for the loyalty of Iraqi Shia. End
Summary.


2. (C) In a March 12 meeting with Shura Council members Dr.
Khalid Bin Khalifa Al Khalifa, head of the Foreign Affairs,
Defense, and National Security Committee, and Ibrahim Mohamed
Bashmi, a member of the same committee, Counselor Zelikow
inquired about the security situation in the region. Centcom
J5 Director Rear Admiral Moeller and the Ambassador
accompanied the Counselor. Dr. Khalid outlined Iraq, Iran,
and Bahrain's domestic security situation as the top three
security concerns for Bahrain. Bashmi added that the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the root security problem
that contributes to all other regional issues, saying that if
this problem were resolved, the whole relationship between
the U.S. and the Arab world would change and help resolve
other issues.

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Iraq's challenges from a historian's perspective...
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3. (C) Dr. Khalid, a former professor of history, stated
that Bahrain's primary concern about Iraq is that events
there are reflected in Bahrain due to the Bahraini Shia
population's close observation of Iraq's transformation. He
said that in 2003 Bahrain was not disappointed about Saddam
Hussein's removal from power, but since then the U.S. has
made mistakes that have contributed to Iraq's instability.
The U.S. has not sufficiently understood the role of the
tribes in Iraq, especially those along the border with Iran.
In the past these tribes received financial support from
Saddam to control security along the border. They now
realize that the support to which they were accustomed is
gone, and their loyalties may have shifted. He suggested the
U.S. make an effort to bring the tribes into the political
process.


4. (C) Dr. Khalid said a second major mistake was the
dissolution of the Iraqi army, and that presently not enough
is being done to build the new army. The perception among
the Sunni is that the army and police will now be
predominantly Shia. There need to be efforts to make it
clear to all that the army has a diverse composition
including people from all sects and areas. Many Sunnis view
U.S. even-handedness in the political system as harming them
and interpret the U.S. role as biased in favor of the Shia.


5. (C) Dr. Khalid went on to say that none of Iraq's
neighbors want Iraq to be strong and united. Previously
Turkey thought Iraqi Kurds were a threat to Turkey's domestic
security, but now there is the possibility that the Kurds
will look to Turkey as a guardian. Many think the Shia in
the south are looking to Iran as the leader of the world's
Shia. However, Iraqi Shia consider Karbala and Najaf to be
the center of Shiism, not Qom in Iran. Dr. Khalid sees a
potential religious battle between Iraqi and Iranian clerics
for the loyalty of the Shia. The current advantage is in
Iran's favor since it controls local militias and political
leaders in the south.

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... And from the view of a journalist
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6. (C) Bashmi, also the managing editor of a new Arabic
daily, Al Waqt, said that the U.S. opened a Pandora's box by
invading Iraq, and that the sectarian problems in Iraq remind
him of Europe in the Middle Ages. The Iraqi central
government is not able to exert control over all areas of the
country. He said that Iran has been paying militias in the
south for the past 20 years and characterized Iran's
influence in Iraq as a bargaining chip it is using in dealing
with the U.S. Bashmi questioned whether Iraq will be able to
stay united, and expressed concern that the Kurds may make
moves toward independence. He also suggested that the Iraqi
central government could benefit from the Bahraini
parliamentary model that includes an appointed Shura
(advisory) Council to serve as a balance to and brake on the
elected Council of Representatives.

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Iran's role in the Gulf
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7. (C) Bashmi presented a contrast in Iranian relations with
individual GCC countries, saying that with Bahrain and Saudi
Arabia those relations are strained, but with Oman and the
United Arab Emirates relations are satisfactory. The GCC has
not presented a unified policy on Iran. He questioned the
West's resistance to Iran having nuclear weapons, pointing to
India and Israel as both having nuclear weapons. Dr. Khalid
responded that the issue is one of balance of power. Israel
was justified 30 years ago in having nuclear weapons because
they were under an existential threat from their Arab
neighbors. India has always been balanced by Pakistan. If
Iran develops nuclear weapons, there will be a need for a
Sunni country, like Saudi Arabia, to develop nuclear weapons.


8. (C) Dr. Khalid explained that Iran has always seen itself
as a superpower wanting to control the whole Gulf area, even
though it did not always have a functioning navy. He said
that at one time, Iran bought ships from India but did not
use them, and in the end they were stolen by Arabs living up
the coastline from Bandar Abbas. Notwithstanding its wealth
of natural resources, Iran is not strong economically, its
infrastructure is under-developed, and the living standard of
the people is low. Bashmi offered that in order for there to
be a unified front against Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict needs to be resolved. Terrorist groups feed from
this conflict and distract regional governments from focusing
on Iran.

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Politics at home
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9. (C) Bashmi explained that most Bahrainis want continued
democratic progress, but that each person has a different
concept of democracy. "We want people to view themselves as
citizens of Bahrain, not as Shia and Sunni." He estimated
that it may take eight more years to educate the public about
what democracy is. Bashmi said that most political societies
are leaning toward participating in the 2006 elections.
However, there is a minority that wants to disrupt the
process and maintain a level of instability. These people
damage property, get arrested, and then claim they are
political prisoners. (Note: This is a reference to the Haq
Movement, which is behind many of the violent demonstrations
in Bahrain over the past several months. End note.) Bahrain
does not want its neighbors to shy away from democratic
change because of demonstrations they see occurring in
Bahrain.


10. (U) Counselor Zelikow cleared this cable.

MONROE