DEPUTY PM, FOREIGN MINISTER AGREE TO COUNSELOR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000442

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR C, NEA, NEA/ARP, NEA/IR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2016
TAGS: PREL PARM PTER MARR EFIN KISL KNNP BA IR REGION BILAT OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: DEPUTY PM, FOREIGN MINISTER AGREE TO COUNSELOR
ZELIKOW'S PROPOSAL FOR STRATEGIC DIALOGUE

REF: A. MANAMA 0358

B. MANAMA 0180

Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (S) State Department Counselor Zelikow met separately
with Deputy Prime Minister Shaikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al
Khalifa and Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al
Khalifa March 12 to initiate a strategic dialogue on regional
security, including concerns about Iran. They agreed with
the U.S. assessment of Iran's revolutionary and subversive
ambitions in the region. They said the GCC could play an
important role in conducting the next stages of a strategic
dialogue. Saudi Arabia is the key country in the region and
needs to be brought on board to launch the initiative.
Shaikh Khalid proposed that U.S. and GCC foreign ministers
meet in an isolated, casual setting to brainstorm about
dealing with regional challenges, including the Iranian
threat. They also discussed Iran's nuclear program, the
internal situation in Iran, and Iranian meddling in regional
countries. End Summary.

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Strategic Dialogue to Oppose Iranian Threat
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2. (S) Counselor Zelikow, accompanied by Centcom J5 Director
Rear Admiral Moeller and the Ambassador, met with Deputy
Prime Minister Shaikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al Khalifa and
Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa March 12
to inaugurate a strategic dialogue on regional security,
including concerns about Iran. The Counselor said it
appeared to Washington that Iran's regime seeks to promote a
violent, revolutionary, extremist agenda. The nuclear
program is just one manifestation of this agenda, but it also
includes terrorism and subversion of foreign governments.
Iran's number one priority is to reduce United States power
in the area so it can intimidate and neutralize local
governments. The U.S. seeks to work with Gulf states to
counter Iran's moves and counter the impression that the
Iranian tide is rising while the American tide is ebbing.
The strategy would encompass diplomacy, security, and
financial investment, including in regional energy resources,
without an ostentatious display of U.S. force. There is some
risk to standing up to the Iranians that the regional states
would have to accept.

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Although Slow and Cautious, GCC Best Forum for Dialogue
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3. (S) ForMin Shaikh Khalid thanked the Counselor for the
explanation. He said it provided new direction and context
for the Secretary's comments during her meeting with GCC
foreign ministers in Abu Dhabi February 23. In reply to the
Counselor's question, Shaikh Khalid said that the GCC was
"not even at the beginning" of having a strategy to deal with
Iran. The GCC is a slow, cautious institution with
antiquated, complex internal procedures. It is riven with
petty disputes and rivalries among the members, such as small
border issues and ownership rights of shared petroleum
deposits. A joint U.S.-GCC strategic plan could prod the
members to work together and elevate their engagement. For
the GCC countries, it would be important not to have any
individual, unplanned moves on Iran; full coordination is
best. Within the GCC, Oman is the exception on Iran.
Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi has met twice with Larijani
and now argues that there is no proof Iran has embarked on a
nuclear weapons program.


4. (S) Shaikh Khalid recommended that the U.S. urge Saudi
Arabia to take a fresh look at how it deals with its "little
brothers" in the GCC. While Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait have
progressed, Saudi Arabia's way of dealing with them does not
change. Saudi Arabia is the most important country in the
region. Once it decides to deal with Iran as a real threat,
it can devote diplomatic energy and real work toward
addressing Iran. This would be a "breath of fresh air" in
the organization. The GCC should take a position against
Iranian ambitions and the U.S. and GCC should quickly launch
a strategic dialogue. Shaikh Khalid proposed that GCC and
U.S. foreign ministers, and perhaps defense ministers
separately, meet in an isolated location without media to
brainstorm in a casual, low-key way about Iran. A serious,
open dialogue would help build the partnership and allow the
parties to move forward together. This could take place as
soon as the U.S. had completed its consultations with GCC
members.


5. (S) Deputy PM Shaikh Mohammed said the countries of the
region had to work collectively with the United States in
facing Iran. One country alone could not do it. The GCC is
a good framework for this discussion, although it is far from
perfect. Shaikh Mohammed suggested the possibility of a
GCC-NATO dialogue on Iran to cover long-term interests and
strategy. Iran will only be deterred by power and strength,
he said.

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Nuke Program Unites Iranians
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6. (S) Saying he had visited Tehran in late January, ForMin
Shaikh Khalid explained that he had noticed a change in
Iranian rhetoric about its nuclear program. Whereas
President Ahmadi-Nejad had termed nuclear weapons "haram"
during his UN address last September, Foreign Minister
Motakki used the weaker formulation "contrary to our
religious beliefs." The Iranians claimed they were not
scared of sanctions, saying the country was used to them (Ref
B). The nuclear program is a national issue that unites
Iranians.


7. (S) Deputy PM Shaikh Mohammed said Iran's development of
a nuclear program was a direct threat to the region. Bahrain
has opposed the introduction of nuclear weapons in the Middle
East for a long time. The GCC has emphasized that the Gulf,
in particular, must be free of nuclear weapons. Bahrain told
Iran that while it has a right to develop nuclear technology,
the IAEA would be the judge of the program (Ref A). Bahrain
worries that Iran will reach an advanced stage in its nuclear
development, from which the move to weapons is quick and
easy. In this event, Bahrain would need cover and protection
from its allies. While Bahrain wants to avoid conflict, it
needs to think about a worst case scenario. Shaikh Mohammed
suggested development of a joint plan to deal with Iran.

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Signs of Strife In Iran
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8. (S) ForMin Shaikh Khalid noted there are signs of
internal problems and strife in Iran, such as bombings taking
place in some parts of the country. On the streets, men are
more likely to be dressed as "soccer players and Western pop
stars" than wearing beards, and there are reports that some
Iranians are leaving Islam and becoming Zoroastrians. Former
President Khatemi transited Bahrain recently, on his way to
and from Qatar, and Shaikh Khalid said Khatemi told him that
he could not believe Ahmadi-Nejad had been elected president.
Khatemi said he had built bridges to Iran's neighbors and
the West, but Ahmadi-Nejad destroyed them.

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Iranian Interference in Bahrain, Region
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9. (S) In response to the Counselor's question, Shaikh
Khalid said the GOB had evidence that the Iranian Ambassador
in Bahrain was distributing cash to agents inside the country
and it was only a "matter of time" before Iran became
directly involved in Bahrain's internal affairs. The
Iranians want to impose pro-Iran clerics on Bahraini Shias.
Clerics travel regularly to Qom and some are declared
ayatollahs even though they do not deserve this rank. Iran
threatens Bahrain at a time when Bahrain is opening up to the
world and implementing political and economic reforms
domestically.


10. (S) Regionally, Shaikh Khalid said Iran uses all the
levers at its disposal to promote its hegemony in Iraq and
the Gulf region. They want a weak Iraq plagued with
terrorism. Iran is not only arming Shia militias but also
possibly Sunni insurgents. It supports Hizballah in Lebanon
and may give aid to Hamas, thus enabling Hamas to ignore the
pressure of the international community. It has gained a
foothold in northern Yemen by arming and financing the
Houthis, a group in rebellion against the central government.
Shaikh Mohammed agreed that Iran's goal is to push the
United States out of the Gulf region and undermine local
governments. "Everywhere they find an opportunity, they take
it." The countries of the region have to send a unified
message that Iran must not interfere.

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Iraq, Palestinians Also Of Concern
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11. (S) Deputy PM Shaikh Mohammed emphasized that the
Israel-Palestinian situation and Iraq are very important to
Bahrain. The deterioration in Israeli-Palestinian relations
creates an atmosphere for extremists to gain influence, in
the Palestinian territories (Hamas),Egypt (Muslim
Brotherhood),and even in Bahrain. On Iraq, Bahrain cannot
trust a government run by Iranian agents. Iraq needs a truly
national government, not one run by Sunnis or Shias or Kurds.
Regional governments would have to gain trust in the Iraqi
government before investing in its petroleum sector, even if
the investments could be profitable. Shaikh Mohammed
recommended that the U.S. make its regional friends feel that
they are strategic allies rather than talk publicly about
decreasing America's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil.


12. (U) Counselor Zelikow cleared this cable.

MONROE