Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MANAMA2067
2006-12-26 07:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Manama
Cable title:  

SENATOR NELSON AND CROWN PRINCE DISCUSS REGIONAL

Tags:  PREL PTER OREP BA REGION OFFICIALS 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 002067 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

H PASS FOR SENATOR NELSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER OREP BA REGION OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: SENATOR NELSON AND CROWN PRINCE DISCUSS REGIONAL
ISSUES

MANAMA 00002067 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 002067

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

H PASS FOR SENATOR NELSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER OREP BA REGION OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: SENATOR NELSON AND CROWN PRINCE DISCUSS REGIONAL
ISSUES

MANAMA 00002067 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) In their December 18 meeting, Crown Prince Salman
told Senator Nelson that Bahrain is 100 percent committed to
the bilateral relationship and credited the United States
with protecting the stability and security of the region.
The Senator briefed Shaikh Salman on his recent meeting with
Syrian President Asad, saying he had had "sharp words" with
Asad about Lebanon. Asad had implied that he might want to
cooperate with the United States and Iraq on controlling the
Syrian-Iraqi border. The CP said that Iran uses Syria as a
conduit to Hizballah and Hamas, and it was better to draw
Syria away from Iran than to allow their alliance to
strengthen. On Iraq, Shaikh Salman suggested that U.S.
troops draw back from the front lines and consolidate so as
to take fewer casualties. He thought a 50-60,000 member U.S.
rapid reaction force was most appropriate. He called Iran
the greatest long-term threat in the region and worried that
if the Iranian regime felt threatened, it might try to take
down as many others as it could. End Summary.

--------------
Strong Bilateral Relationship
--------------


2. (C) Opening their December 18 meeting, Crown Prince
Shaikh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa thanked Senator Nelson
(D-FL) for visiting Bahrain and cited the strength of the
U.S.-Bahrain relationship, which has existed for over 100
years. He said the United States protects the stability and
security of the region, which allows countries to develop and
prosper. Bahrain, he said, is "100 percent" committed to the
relationship.

--------------
Lebanon and Syria
--------------


3. (C) The Senator told Shaikh Salman that he had met with
Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora after an earlier meeting with
Syrian President Asad, and he had told Siniora that he had
had "sharp words" with Asad about Lebanon. The Senator told
Asad that he supported Siniora; Asad replied that he did not.



4. (C) The Senator said that Asad had been evasive during
their meeting, as he had been three years ago when the
Senator had met him. However, this time Asad had been
different in two ways: first, he had implied that he might
want to cooperate with the United States and Iraq on
controlling the Syrian-Iraqi border, and second, Asad had
requested no quid pro quo for this possible cooperation. The
Senator had emphasized that it was in Syria's interest to
control the border, to keep in check any possible refugee
inflow and to create the conditions for a future pipeline
from Kirkuk to the Syrian coast. Regarding Syria's
relationship with Iran, the Senator had told Asad that
ultimately Iran might become a threat to Syria and the whole
Arab world. Asad had disagreed.

--------------
Libya a Model for Syria Diplomacy
--------------


5. (C) The Crown Prince stated that Syria is the linchpin
for any strategy to contain Iran, which represents the
greatest threat to the region. It is actively pursuing the
building blocks for nuclear weapons and uses Syria as a
conduit to Hizballah and Hamas. Shaikh Salman said there
could be an opportunity for constructive diplomacy with Syria
based upon the Libya model. Just as the West had pressured
Libya over the Lockerbie bombing, it could pressure Syria
over the Hariri assassination. Drawing Syria away from Iran
is a better situation than allowing them to build a strong
alliance. Because Syria is so isolated, it would likely want
guarantees that the U.S. will not pursue regime change in
exchange for cooperation.


6. (C) The Crown Prince continued that Saudi Arabia is
overtly angry with Syria and had pushed Asad away. But in a
less emotional context, would regime change really be a
favorable outcome? Shaikh Salman said he doubted it would be
because a successor regime, likely led by Sunni extremists,
would be worse than Asad.

MANAMA 00002067 002 OF 002



--------------
Withdraw Troops from Iraqi Front Lines
--------------


7. (C) Senator Nelson asked the Crown Prince for his views
on the situation in Iraq. The CP replied that the GOI had to
address four main issues: de-Baathification, which had gone
too far and was too harsh; distribution of oil income;
federalism, specifically, whether Iraq should be composed of
three or 18 regions; and disarming militias. He suggested
that the U.S. withdraw troops from the front lines and
consolidate its forces so as to take fewer casualties. The
security situation would likely decline, but this would force
Iraqis to take on a greater measure of the security
responsibilities themselves and look to their neighbors for
support. The U.S. could intervene if necessary. This
situation is preferable to the U.S. "half committing" to
providing security in Iraq or increasing the number of U.S.
troops in the country.


8. (C) The Senator reported that Saudi Arabia supported
fixing a timetable for a complete pull-out of U.S. forces as
a means to encourage Iraqis to work together. The CP said
that this was not enough and would not work. He recommended
that the U.S. draw down to about 50-60,000 troops, which
would serve as a rapid reaction force. He thought GCC
countries would probably support a U.S. rapid reaction force
in Iraq, and they might even contribute troops if Iraq
requested them to do so.


9. (C) The Crown Prince said that what the United States
tried to do in Iraq was very hard and the U.S. had
underestimated the difficulties. Iraq will never be a model
for democracy in the region. The United States should
empower PM Al Maliki, but it cannot do it alone. The U.S.
should get Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and others to help.

--------------
Iran the Greatest Long-Term Threat
--------------


10. (C) Switching gears, the Crown Prince said that the U.S.
cannot confront Iran while it is tied up in Iraq. Iran
represents the greatest long-term threat in the region. It
wants to develop long-range ballistic nuclear missiles. A
project like this requires the resources of a state behind
it, and goes well beyond what a group like Al Qaida could do.
The Senator asked the Crown Prince his view of whether Iran
might take offensive action against oil interests. The Crown
Prince responded that "rationality is overrated,"
particularly if the Iranian regime feels its entire existence
is threatened. They might try to take down as many others
with them as they could. Additionally, Iran could try to
stir up trouble inside the GCC, for example in Bahrain and
Dubai. The CP said that Bahrain is interested in pursuing an
integrated air and missile defense system with the United
States and other GCC countries to harden its defenses against
Iran.


11. (C) The Senator asked Shaikh Salman his thoughts on the
possibility of a terrorist attack on an oil tanker. The CP
responded that some extremist groups are perpetuating a
cult-like philosophy that glorifies death. These extremists
can never be brought into the mainstream. A tanker going
down is not a strategic issue, but it highlights the need for
alternatives to shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
The region also needs a way to react quickly to an
environmental incident. Bahrain worries about something
happening at Iran's Bushehr reactor that results in the
contamination of Gulf waters. Bahrain obtains 70 percent of
its potable water through desalination, and it cannot afford
to face the disaster of radiated Gulf waters.


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MONROE