SUNNI ISLAMISTS NET GAINS IN BAHRAIN'S SECOND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001995

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM BA POL
SUBJECT: SUNNI ISLAMISTS NET GAINS IN BAHRAIN'S SECOND
ROUND, NO MAJORITY FOR THE OPPOSITION

Classified By: DCM Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Nearly 70% of Bahrain's registered voters in runoff
districts participated in the second round of polls December

2. There were reports of minor skirmishes and journalists
being harassed at a few poll stations, but overall voting
proceeded peacefully. Early indications from the Election
Monitoring Joint Committee (EMJC) were that the High
Commission for Elections introduced an EMJC recommendation
that general polling center election officials announce
tallies prior to moving the ballot boxes to the
governorate-level supervisory centers. Sunni Islamists
gained all four seats they were contesting in the runoffs,
leading Shia political society Al Wifaq gained one of two
seats it was contesting, and liberal, secular Al Waad society
failed to win a single seat, although one additional
independent oppositionist won his race. End summary.

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Heavy Turnout, (Mostly) Calm Polling
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2. (SBU) Official election spokesperson Ahdeya Ahmed
announced December 3 that the initial tally of voter
participation showed that the turnout was 69% in districts
holding second-round runoffs. There were reports of minor
skirmishes outside some polling centers at which opposition
candidates were competing. There were no reports that any of
these skirmishes prevented voters from reaching the poll
centers. Similarly, there were reports of security personnel
harassing journalists and photographers, especially at the
general polling centers. An unofficial observer from Al
Wifaq was reportedly temporarily detained by military police
at the general center next to the Bahrain Defense Forces
Hospital after he was seen taking photos of military staff
who voted at the center. The photos he took were reportedly
erased and he was released.


3. (C) Although a more in-depth account of polling is
forthcoming from the EMJC on the December 2 vote, initial
indications are that the High Commission for Elections heeded
the EMJC suggestion for increased transparency at the ten
general polling centers. Bahrain Human Rights Society Deputy
Secretary General and EMJC organizer Dr. Abdulla Al Derazi

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told Poloff December 3 that from the limited reports from
EMJC volunteers that he had seen, election officials at the
general centers released vote tallies to observers and
candidate representatives prior to moving the ballots to the
five governorate supervisory centers for consolidation with
tallies from other general centers. Arabic daily Al Wasat
reported that some of the general centers had a high volume
of voters, including large numbers of naturalized Bahrainis
and military personnel.

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Sunni Islamists Sweep, Waad Hit Hard
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4. (SBU) The three remaining Al Minbar political society
(Muslim Brotherhood) candidates and the single remaining Al
Asala (Salafi) candidate all were victorious in their runoff
races December 2, bringing the number of MPs in the Sunni
Islamist bloc to 12, the same as there were in the previous
parliament. Al Minbar has seven seats and Al Asala holds
five. Half of these MPs (three Al Minbar and three Al Asala)
took six of the eight Muharraq seats. Four others are in the
Central Governorate while the Northern and Southern
Governorates each have one. Arabic daily Al Watan reported
December 3 that three of the newly elected independent MPs
have approached Al Asala to request that they be included in
its parliamentary bloc. Al Asala has reportedly said it will
look into the request, and Al Watan sources say it will
likely accept the new MPs.


5. (SBU) The three remaining candidates from Al Waad
political society were all defeated in their respective
races. In a scenario reminiscent of the Salah Ali/Munira
Fakhro race, Al Waad candidate Abdulrahman Al Nuaimi had a
significant lead (more than 700 votes) in votes cast in the
district polling center, but the count from the general
centers was 1,546 to 392 in favor of Al Nuaimi's incumbent
competitor Isa Abul Fateh, who ended up with 53% of the
overall vote. Al Wifaq gained one additional seat in the
parliament as Sayed Mekki Hilal won his race against his
competitor, who was also an Al Wifaq supporter running as an
independent. However, Al Wifaq candidate Mahdi Abu Deeb lost

MANAMA 00001995 002 OF 003


to Al Minbar candidate Ibrahim Al Hadi in the only runoff
race that pitted a Shia Islamist against a Sunni Islamist.
Liberal independent candidate Abdulaziz Abul, who received
support from Al Wifaq and Al Waad societies, was elected
easily, receiving 64% of votes cast in the district, thus
becoming the only Sunni opposition MP in the new parliament.

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The "Independent" Question
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6. (C) In the 40-seat parliament, there are now 17 members
from the Al Wifaq bloc and 12 members from the Sunni Islamist
bloc, leaving 11 independent MPs, all of whom are Sunni.
Liberal oppositionist Abul will ally with Al Wifaq, and
incumbent Sunni Islamist Jasim Al Saeedi will ally with Al
Minbar and Al Asala. Council of Representatives Speaker
Khalifa Al Dhahrani, although careful to maintain his
objectivity, is close to Sunni Islamists. Of the eight
remaining, all can be considered pro-government, but not all
will see eye-to-eye with the Sunni Islamists. Three are
incumbents - two from the pro-government "Independent bloc"
and the third the sole survivor of the "Economic bloc" - both
from the previous parliament. Another Independent is Adel Al
Asoomi, a businessman who has ties to the Prime Minister, who
is also the chairman of his area's charity fund that seeks to
bring government projects to the area. The first woman in
parliament, Latifa Al Qa'oud, is also pro-government, but is
not likely to be close to the Islamists on either side. Less
is known about the remaining three except that they will also
support government proposals and will likely oppose
opposition proposals that the government does not support.

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EU Comment on Round One
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7. (SBU) The Council of the European Union issued a press
statement November 29 about the first round of voting
(forwarded to the Embassy December 3) in which it welcomed
the parliamentary elections held in Bahrain. The statement
read, "The higher turnout compared to the previous elections
held in 2002 shows that the Bahraini people have embraced the
importance of the electoral process in developing a
democratic state. The EU is convinced that the elections
have further consolidated the democratic process in the
Kingdom of Bahrain."

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Influence from Sunni MP Clerics
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8. (SBU) Sunni Islamist MPs Mohamed Khalid and Jasim Al
Saeedi were in Muharraq December 1, delivering pre-election
Friday sermons. Mohamed Khalid spoke out against the
alliance between Al Waad and Al Wifaq and encouraged voters
to support Sunni Islamist candidates. He said that the Sunni
Islamist bloc would not allow Al Waad and Al Wifaq to look
into the Ministries of Defense and Interior's portfolios and
budgets. Khalid was reportedly interrupted by two attendees
when he began to impress upon worshippers the importance of
voting for particular candidates in the runoff elections, a
step preachers are not supposed to take.

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The Scene at the Polls
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9. (C) Although official participation statistics show only
a very slight decline from the previous week's numbers,
Emboffs observed a generally more placid environment while
touring seven polling centers, perhaps because only eleven
(of 40) districts held second-round parliamentary runoff
elections. (Eight others held runoffs for municipal council
seats.) In a repeat of the previous week, and in violation
of the 2006 election law, partisans of the various candidates
handed out campaign literature to passers-by (all campaign
activity was supposed to cease 24 hours before the start of
voting the morning of December 2) and campaign posters were
present well inside of the required 200-meter perimeter
around the stations. Many of the candidates themselves were
physically present, standing immediately outside the
entrances to the centers in several of the centers. At one
center, the two competing parliamentary campaigns seemed to
be engaged in a battle for voters' stomachs - both had tables
set up distributing appetizers, sweets, and hot and cold
drinks.


10. (C) Candidates arranged for other prominent politicians,
including those who had won their elections the previous

MANAMA 00001995 003 OF 003


week, to visit the centers to generate excitement. Sunni
Islamist MP Shaikh Adel Al Moawada paid visits in support of
Independent Isa Abul Fateh and Al Minbar's Nasser Al Fadhala
and spent time conversing with supporters in a display of
personal politics. (Both candidates won.) Al Wifaq
Secretary General Shaikh Ali Salman visited Al Waad candidate

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Ibrahim Sharif and attracted television crews and a knot of
supporters and hangers-on. Partisans of Sharif's competitor
Abdulrahman Bumjeed loudly chanted their candidate's name
close to the cameras in an attempt to add their voice to the
footage.


11. (C) Despite reports of scattered run-ins between various
groups at some of the polling stations, Emboffs observed
mostly calm and quiet scenes during their tour, with only a
minimum number of security personnel present at the stations.
The only exception was the center in the Muharraq district
hosting the runoff between Abul Fateh and Al Waad's
Abdulrahman Al Nuaimi. There were approximately 150 regular
police and (unarmed) community police in front of the center,
including a group of 15 standing right at the front entrance.
The security personnel had set up traffic barricades and
were diverting vehicle traffic from entering the street
fronting the building. They did allow vehicles carrying
handicapped and elderly voters to drive up to the entrance.
Security did not prevent anyone from entering the area on
foot but asked those lingering in the area to move outside
the barricades.


12. (C) The Central Governorate runoff between Al Minbar's
Ibrahim Al Hadi and Al Wifaq's Mahdi Abu Deeb, the political
societies with the largest representation in parliament,
reportedly sparked some pushing and shouting between the two
sides. During Emboffs' visit, each candidates' supporters
were squeezed into the parking lot and on the sidewalk
outside the polling station. There was a lot of foot and
vehicle traffic with people holding signs and flags, and both
candidates stood outside the center greeting voters upon
their arrival. But actions that would have resulted in some
fights at a typical high school football game, including
waving signs in the faces of members of the opposing camp,
were either tolerated or ignored with generally good humor.

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