ELECTION HIGHLIGHTS 10: UPDATED RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001970

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM BA POL
SUBJECT: ELECTION HIGHLIGHTS 10: UPDATED RESULTS

REF: MANAMA 1963

Classified By: CDA Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: King Hamad, in responses November 27 to
congratulatory cables from the Prime Minister and the Crown
Prince, praised the participation of the Bahraini people in
the election, which he said reinforces Bahrain's status as a
kingdom of constitution and laws. Election result updates
released late November 26 revealed that two additional seats
were decided by first round voting, leaving only 11 runoff
races scheduled for December 2. Waad candidate Dr. Munira
Fakhro lost in one of the races, but there are reports she is
considering contesting the results due to alleged
irregularities involving her competitor Dr. Salah Ali.
Published vote percentages in individual races revealed that
several Al Wifaq candidates won by overwhelming margins,
topped by one candidate receiving 92% of his district's
votes. Of the four Sunni opposition candidates remaining in
the second round races, two have a moderate chance of being
successful. End summary.


2. (SBU) KING HAMAD PRAISES POLLS, PARTICIPATION: In a
response to cables of congratulations from the Prime Minister
and Crown Prince, King Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa expressed his
gratitude to the Bahraini people for fulfilling their
democratic duties by going to the polls in such large
numbers, commenting that this participation reinforces
Bahrain's status as a kingdom of constitution and laws.
Separately, judges of the High Commission for Elections
issued a statement November 26 praising the huge
participation in the election as a "tangible indication of
voters' confidence in the transparency of elections and the
importance of exercising one's constitutional rights."


3. (SBU) UPDATED ELECTION RESULTS: As more complete returns
were tallied late in the day November 26, election officials
announced two additional races. This brings to 29 the number
of seats that have been decided, leaving 11 runoff races for
December 2. The beneficiaries of the two additional seats
are Sunni Islamists with one seat going to Al Asala (Salafi)
and another to Al Minbar (Muslim Brotherhood),resulting in
four seats for each political society and four candidates
(one from Al Asala, three from Al Minbar) still alive in the
runoffs. Election turnout was confirmed to be 72%, with over
212,000 of the approximately 295,000 registered voters
participating. Official election spokesperson Ahdeya Ahmed
confirmed that in addition to the district polling centers,
the general polling centers would be used in the second round
runoffs.


4. (C) AL WIFAQ MANAGES EXPECTATIONS: Many candidates of
leading Shia opposition political society Al Wifaq notched
big wins. For example, Shaikh Haider Al Sitri received 92%,
Shaikh Hamza Al Dairi received 90%, Abduljaleel Khaleel
received 89%, and Shaikh Ali Salman received 84% of their
respective districts' votes. In the evening November 26,
cars of Al Wifaq supporters could be heard honking their car
horns in celebration in and around Shia neighborhoods. To
put the victory in perspective, however, Al Wifaq Secretary
General Shaikh Ali Salman told the press, "Our participation
(in the parliament) is limited. (Our victory) is a positive
step, but let's put this participation in perspective. There
are 40 people appointed by the King with the same legislative
powers." He also said publicly on November 25, "When I speak
to supporters, I feel I have to acknowledge, yes, not much is
going to change. But I try to emphasize to people that you
are better off having someone looking out for your interests
within the system, even if he wins only small victories."


5. (SBU) DR. MUNIRA, WOMEN COME UP SHORT: Waad candidate
Dr. Munira Fakhro was one casualty of the two additional
races being decided as her competitor Dr. Salah Ali finished
with 53% of the vote in the district. Fakhro took 42% of the
vote, receiving 3,196 votes to Ali's 4066 votes. Of the
other seven candidates in the district, none received over
two percent of the vote. In the next most competitive race
involving a woman, independent candidate and head of
programming at Bahrain Television and Radio Fawzia Zainal
received 34% of votes cast in her district (2,598 votes)
versus 56% (4,344 votes) to the district's victor. Amal Al
Jowder received 16% of votes (1,529 votes) in her district
and Women's Union president Mariam Al Ruwaie received 14%
(534 votes) in her district.


6. (SBU) Arabic daily Al Wasat reported that Fakhro is
considering contesting the results due to an unusually large
number of votes for Salah Ali from the general polling
centers. Al Wasat reported that Ali received more than 1,000
more votes from the general centers than Fakhro, and he
received more votes through the general centers than any

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other election candidate nationwide. Sources close to Fakhro
said she had held a meeting in the evening November 26
regarding military personnel voting for her competitor.


7. (SBU) Arabic daily Al Ayam reported the comments of Al
Asala candidate and second deputy speaker of the Council of
Representatives Adel Al Mo'awada in an interview with Al
Jazeera satellite channel regarding women candidates. He
said, "Despite the fact that women candidates had more
support (official technical support and training) than men
candidates, their failure to reach parliament was natural and
expected. This is not an underestimation of the role of
women; even women in the West have not attained what men have
reached." In reaction to Al Mo'awada's statements, Munira
Fakhro told Al Wasat newspaper, "We don't expect these people
(Sunni Salafis) to view women any better than this. In fact,
our expectation is that they would say even worse things."


8. (C) FOUR OPPOSITION CANDIDATES REMAIN: In the December 2
runoffs there will be four Sunni opposition candidates
participating: three Waad candidates and independent
candidate Abdul Aziz Abul. Receiving 43% of first round
returns from a field of seven candidates, Abul may have the
best chance against his competitor Abdulhakeem Al Shamari,
who received 31% of the vote. Supporters of Shia cleric
Shaikh Ahmed Al Mahoozi, who received 12% of votes, and
female Shia candidate Dhawiya Al Alawi, who received 11% of
the district's votes, will likely support Abul in the runoff.
Running neck-and-neck in Muharraq, Waad's Abdulrahman Al
Nuaimi received 37% against incumbent Isa Abulfatah's 38%.
Al Nuaimi can expect to receive support from those who
supported female Shia candidate Zahra Muradi, but she
received only 11% of her district's vote, leaving Al Nuaimi
just shy of a majority. Victory for Al Nuaimi will depend on
how heavy voter turnout is and how many of the remaining
voters he can reach.


9. (C) As for Waad's Ibrahim Sharif, he trailed independent
candidate Abdulrahman Bumjeed 47% to 40% in the first round.
Prior to the election, Sharif told Emboffs that Bumjeed had
solid control of a sizable portion of the district, and he
would have a difficult time reaching these voters. Sharif
will now need to focus his attention on the 13% who voted for
the other two candidates in the district. The final Waad
candidate Sami Siyadi received 32% of the vote in his
district against 42% for leading candidate Sunni Islamist
Naser Al Fadhala from Al Minbar. In a more conservative
district, it is likely that the quarter of voters who voted
for the remaining four candidates will throw their support
behind Al Fadhala and he will come out ahead.


10. (C) ELECTION IRREGULARITIES/VIOLATIONS: In addition to
the violations noted in reftel, Vice President of the Bahrain
Human Rights Society and one of the organizers of the
Election Monitoring Joint Committee (EMJC) Dr. Abdulla Al
Durazi told Poloff November 27 that busloads of military
personnel were reportedly transported to two of the general
polling stations, one next to the Bahrain Defense Forces
Hospital and the other in the relatively remote Southern town
of Awali, to vote. He said that observers had noticed in the
case of at least one bus that those who got off the bus were
handed their passports as they disembarked. (Note: Photos
of one of these buses can be seen on Al Wifaq's web site
www.alwefaq.org.) He also said there were indications that
many of the extra votes received by Dr. Salah Ali came from
these general polling centers.


11. (C) Bahrain Transparency Society president Dr. Jasim Al
Ajmi told Poloff that even in the face of the above reports,
there is not enough evidence to prove that those who were
transported in buses were those who voted for Ali. And even
if this could be proved, there is not enough evidence that
they voted due to pressure from their superiors. The secrecy
of the ballot box is necessary, but it also serves to limit
evidence in cases like this. When asked whether voter lists
of those who cast their ballots had been released to the
candidates, as had been announced days prior to the first
round, Al Ajmi said that they had not been provided as yet,
and he did not have information about when they might be
released. He said that EMJC had also requested results from
individual general polling stations, but the information had
not been provided yet.


12. (C) A TELLING POLITICAL CARTOON: Arabic daily Al Ayam
printed a political cartoon by Khalid Al Hashemi November 27
that was simple in its presentation, but profound in its
message. It depicts two Islamists, one Sunni and the other
Shia, carrying two ends of a ballot box. The two men are
looking at each other out of the corners of their eyes with
looks of concern and suspicion etched on their faces. The
cartoon indicates that even though the new parliament will be

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significantly more Islamic - already 24 of the 29 MPs are
members of Islamist political societies - the overriding
characteristic of the new parliament is the sectarian divide.


13. (C) COMMENT: Now that the first round results are in,
focus shifts to the runoff elections, in particular the four
races involving Sunni oppositionists. There were widespread
reports in the first round of disparaging text messages
against Waad's candidates, especially the Sunni Waad
candidates, describing them as Godless communists and
supporters of prostitution. There was also a leaflet smear
campaign against Ibrahim Sharif that, according to Sharif,
appeared to be organized to such an extent that he thought
the security services might be behind it. Sharif told
Emboffs that educated Bahrainis ignore such messages, but
those who are less well-educated begin to believe these
spurious messages after hearing them several times. In the
context of the religious nature of most Bahrainis, messages
like these may have some effect, and it is likely that the
remaining opposition candidates will, in any case, have a
difficult battle ahead of them in the second round runoffs.

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ZIADEH