Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MANAMA1963
2006-11-26 13:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Manama
Cable title:  

HUGE BAHRAINI ELECTION TURNOUT, VOTING PROBLEMS

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PHUM BA POL 
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VZCZCXRO8432
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHMK #1963/01 3301344
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 261344Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6056
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHBVAKS/COMUSNAVCENT PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MANAMA 001963 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM BA POL
SUBJECT: HUGE BAHRAINI ELECTION TURNOUT, VOTING PROBLEMS
MINIMAL, OPPOSITION DOES BETTER THAN EXPECTED

Classified By: CDA Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MANAMA 001963

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM BA POL
SUBJECT: HUGE BAHRAINI ELECTION TURNOUT, VOTING PROBLEMS
MINIMAL, OPPOSITION DOES BETTER THAN EXPECTED

Classified By: CDA Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) There was a massive turnout for Bahrain's
parliamentary and municipal elections November 25, with
reports of at least 72% participation. According to the NGO
Election Monitoring Joint Committee (EMJC),their initial
assessment is that there were no reports of widespread
attempts to influence the outcomes of the elections.
Likewise, there were no reported problems at the ten general
polling stations, which had received much attention as being
possibly vulnerable to abuses. Violations of technical
anomalies that were reported at district polling stations
included candidates whose supporters continued to pass out
flyers on election day and whose signs and billboards were
not at least 200 meters away from the station, as required by
election law.


2. (C) The Bahraini opposition performed very well at the
polls. Leading Shia opposition political society Al Wifaq
gained 16 seats in round one, including victories by five
Shia clerics, and may gain two more in round two. Four
secular Waad political society candidates and one independent
secular candidate, who are all receiving Al Wifaq support,
advanced to the second round, bringing the possible total
number of seats the opposition could win as high as 23 of the
40-seat Council of Representatives. Of the 18 women who ran
for parliamentary seats, a government-supported candidate won
unopposed and a second, Waad candidate Dr. Munira Fakhro,
progressed to the second round. Prime Minister Shaikh
Khalifa Bin Salman Al Khalifa appealed to elected
representatives to join hands with the government to serve
the country and its citizens. End Summary.

--------------
Massive Voter Turnout
--------------


3. (SBU) On a gray, sometimes rainy election day November
25, at least 72% of registered voters turned out to vote in
Bahrain's second parliamentary and municipal elections since
the adoption of the 2002 constitution. According to
Bahrain's official election web site (www.vote4bahrain.com)

voter turnout was 72%, a huge increase over the 2002 election
turnout of 54% (which was affected by the boycott of four
political societies including Al Wifaq and Waad). In a
statement read on Bahrain Radio, the High Commission for
Elections reported an updated figure of 82% participation.
Twenty-seven of the 40 parliamentary seats have now been
decided with the remaining thirteen seats up for a second
round runoff between the two highest vote-getters on December

2.

--------------
Election Monitoring
--------------


4. (C) Dr. Abdullah Al Durazi, Vice President of the Bahrain
Human Rights Society and one of the organizers of the EMJC,
which deployed 140 trained volunteers on election day, told
Poloff the morning of November 26 that overall the elections
had gone very well. There were no reports or accusations of
widespread attempts to influence or sway the outcomes of the
elections. Emphasizing that his comments were
impressionistic as the EMJC had not yet organized or drafted
a report, Al Durazi said that some problems had occurred at
several polling stations because the judges running the
stations did not appear to understand clearly their duties
and responsibilities. For example, judges were supposed to
assist old, illiterate, and handicapped voters, but some
voters claimed that the judges would not do so or did not
mark the ballots according to the instructions of the voter.
Al Durazi said there had been no reports of problems at the
ten general polling stations, where voters from any district
could cast their ballots. Oppositionists had feared the
government would direct voters with no fixed addresses to the
general stations to support government-friendly candidates in
districts with close elections.


5. (U) A report posted on the EMJC,s web site
(www.bahrainemjc2006.com) at 10:00 am local on November 25
stated that observers reported "widespread electoral law
violations of the ban on political campaigning on election
day. Observers reported that posters continue to be posted
at many voting stations and campaign supporters continue to
distribute flyers around voting centers." Bahrain
Transparency Society President and primary EMJC organizer Dr.

MANAMA 00001963 002 OF 004


Jassim Al Ajmi told the press that all campaign activities
should have stopped 24 hours before the elections. He noted
that campaign staffers continued to place posters close to
the polling centers, including many right in front of the
entrances. According to the law, there should not have been
any posters placed within 200 meters of the polling stations.

--------------
The Opposition Tastes Victory
--------------


6. (SBU) Leading Shia opposition political society Al Wifaq
performed extremely well in the first round of polling
November 25, winning 16 seats of the 17 races it contested,
including victories by five Shia clerics. The only Al Wifaq
candidate who did not gain an outright majority of votes will
participate in a runoff vote December 2 along with candidate
pairs from 12 other districts in which no candidate received
over 50% of votes. In addition to the 16 seats already won
and the one runoff, two Al Wifaq members who ran against each
other as independents without official Al Wifaq support, will
vie for their seat in the runoff election, assuring Al Wifaq
of at least a 17-member bloc in the new parliament. Liberal,
secular Waad political society candidates, running with the
support of Al Wifaq, performed well in difficult races in
mixed Sunni-Shia districts, although none won a majority.
Four of Waad's six candidates, including the most promising
of the women candidates Munira Fakhro, have moved on to
second round races. Independent opposition candidate Abdul
Aziz Abul, who received Al Wifaq support in his district,
also advanced to the second round.

-------------- ---
Incumbents, Sunni Islamists, Women Come Up Short
-------------- ---


7. (SBU) Of the 28 incumbents standing for reelection, only
nine were reelected in the first round, including speaker of
the parliament, Khalifa Al Dharani, and four others
progressed to the second round. None of the 12 members of
the Shia Islamic bloc were reelected; all who contested the
elections lost to Al Wifaq candidates. Although independent
Sunni Salafi candidate Jasim Al Saeedi was reelected, Sunni
Islamist political societies Al Asala (Salafi) and Al Minbar
(Muslim Brotherhood) did not gain many outright victories at
the ballot box in round one. Of Al Minbar's eight
candidates, only three won with a majority and four are in
second round runoffs. Al Asala, which fielded six
candidates, won three seats outright and two other candidates
advanced to round two.


8. (SBU) Latifa Al Qa'oud, who ran unopposed in Southern
Governorate District 6, won her seat. The only female
candidate still in the running is Waad candidate Dr. Munira
Fakhro. She has had a difficult battle against Sunni
Islamist incumbent and Al Minbar head Dr. Salah Ali, and will
face him in the runoff election. Head of programming at
Bahrain Television and Radio and independent candidate Fawzia
Zainal was defeated by the Sunni Islamist incumbent in her
district Abdul Latif Al Shaikh of Al Minbar. Two other
female candidates who had reportedly been doing well in their
campaigns, Dr. Amal Al Jowder of liberal, secular Al Methaq
political society and Dr. Jameela Al Sammak, an independent
receiving nominal support from Al Methaq, were both defeated
by the Al Wifaq candidates in their respective districts.

--------------
Initial GOB Reactions
--------------


9. (U) Prime Minister Shaikh Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa
issued a statement immediately after he cast his vote in
Riffa praising the robust participation in the elections. He
said, "The government thinks such a high participation will
support the parliamentary process and establish a healthy
state of democracy and national unity in Bahrain. Bahrain is
moving forward with the hope for a brighter future because of
the confidence in people,s loyalty and ability to understand
political development and to maintain national unity. The
world is witnessing a rapid growth of democratic life in
Bahrain."


10. (U) The Prime Minister urged elected representatives to
join hands with the government to serve citizens and fulfill
their aspirations. "They were elected by the people, who are
well aware of their choice and the huge national
responsibility coming with that. True democracy respects
other people,s opinions. The diversity of opinions marks
the cornerstone of democracy. The government respects anyone
who puts national welfare ahead of everything else. As for

MANAMA 00001963 003 OF 004


the executive authority, we shall cooperate to the maximum
with the legislative authority out of our belief in the
responsibility for building the future of the country and the
next generation."

--------------
Comments by Shaikh Isa Qassem
--------------


11. (C) Senior Shia cleric Shaikh Isa Qassem, who has
repeatedly stressed participation in the elections, calling
voting a religious duty, told the press after casting his
ballot that "the faithful bloc (a reference to Al Wifaq) will
consider alliances with any blocs if doing so is in the
interest of religion and the oppressed people." In a
surprisingly balanced statement in his November 24 Friday
prayer sermon, he said it was preferable for Shia to live
under a just Sunni government than an unjust Shia government.
While there has been no reaction yet, this statement may be
interpreted as an olive branch from the Shia community to the
government as well as a signal that Shias are going to expect
the government to deal seriously with their concerns.

--------------
Polling Station Snapshots
--------------


12. (C) In a tour of nine voting centers, Emboffs observed
massive turnout for the elections by both men and women. In
the larger, more densely populated districts, there was heavy
vehicle traffic tying up roads in the immediate vicinity of
the stations. At only a few of the centers were lines of
voters waiting to enter the centers visible. According to
Dr. Al Durazi, two centers in particular, Jid Hafs in
Northern Governorate District 1 and Sitra in Central
Governorate District 6, had long lines but a voter was able
to complete the process within about 30 minutes. There were
intermittent rain showers during the day and evening but the
conditions did not appear to deter voters in any way. Some
of those waiting to vote were able to take shelter under
awnings or crowd into the entranceways of buildings. The
rain did not prevent sometimes hundreds of voters, campaign
volunteers, and others from milling about many of the
stations.


13. (C) At some of the more closely fought districts, the
election centers were the site of last-minute frantic
campaign activity. Laws preventing campaigning from 8:00 am
on November 24 and the placement of posters closer than 200
meters to the voting centers were almost uniformly ignored.
Emboffs observed some candidates and groups of campaign
volunteers, often wearing t-shirts or hats with the names of
their candidates printed on them or clad in the same color
clothing, swarming voters and distributing cards with
candidates, names and photos. When rain showers started at
one center, Al Wifaq supporters distributed identical
umbrellas to many women and children. All candidates
reportedly offered transportation to voters and in fact cars
and minibuses were seen dropping off and picking up voters.


14. (C) At the polling station for the Salah Ali-Munira
Fakhro race, hordes of volunteers (including many who
appeared to be students of Fakhro,s from the University of
Bahrain) combed the area and plied voters with election
materials. One observer told Emboffs that Ali,s campaign
had assembled several local elders to sit just outside the
entrance of the polling station under posters bearing Ali,s
photo. Fakhro,s campaign objected, saying the presence of
the elders served to influence voters. Security personnel
asked them to leave the immediate area and they did so with
no argument.

--------------
BTS Voter Awareness Campaign
--------------


15. (SBU) Bahrain Transparency Society (BTS) ran a
two-flyer awareness campaign in the closing days of the
election campaign and on election day, in an attempt to
combat vote-buying and assure the public that its votes were
anonymous. The flyers had the messages, "The future of the
country is valuable, don't sell it to the brokers of vote
buying. The responsibility is yours." and, "Your vote is
kept secret for you, not for others. Participate in the
election as is your right."

--------------
Comment
--------------


MANAMA 00001963 004 OF 004



16. (C) Although the hard-fought campaign season was often
bitter, acrimonious, and insulting on a personal level, it
yielded a sweet fruit: massive turnout and participation in
Bahrain,s second parliamentary and municipal elections since
the adoption of the 2002 constitution. Government officials
and both Sunni and Shia clerics urged citizens to vote, and
the people listened. While the makeup of the parliament will
not be set until after next week,s runoffs, it is clear that
oppositionists will have very strong representation, if not a
majority of the seats. Under the constitution, the
government still retains important controls and levers over
the legislative process, and the King-appointed upper house
Shura Council can serve to block initiatives of the elected
lower house Council of Representatives. But in other areas -
monitoring government activities and operations, budget
negotiations, grilling Cabinet ministers, use of the "bully
pulpit" - the opposition will have a strong voice. The
government may not be looking forward to dealing with a
restive parliament, but the good news is that the opposition
is now within, and indeed has become an integral part of the
system, rather than on the streets airing its grievances with
protests, demonstrations, and petitions.

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ZIADEH