Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MANAMA1953
2006-11-22 13:08:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Manama
Cable title:  

CANDIDATES FOCUS ON LOCAL ISSUES WHILE SPECTER OF

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PHUM KISL BA POL REFORM 
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VZCZCXRO6475
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHMK #1953/01 3261308
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 221308Z NOV 06 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY MANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6036
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHBVAKS/COMUSNAVCENT PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 MANAMA 001953 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM KISL BA POL REFORM
SUBJECT: CANDIDATES FOCUS ON LOCAL ISSUES WHILE SPECTER OF
SECTARIAN PARLIAMENT LOOMS

REF: A. MANAMA 1942

B. MANAMA 1912

C. MANAMA 1887

D. MANAMA 1870

E. MANAMA 1728

Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 MANAMA 001953

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM KISL BA POL REFORM
SUBJECT: CANDIDATES FOCUS ON LOCAL ISSUES WHILE SPECTER OF
SECTARIAN PARLIAMENT LOOMS

REF: A. MANAMA 1942

B. MANAMA 1912

C. MANAMA 1887

D. MANAMA 1870

E. MANAMA 1728

Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Two hundred seven candidates are contesting Bahrain's
parliamentary elections to be held November 25 and December

2. In the run-up to the elections, campaign tents, posters
and billboards have blossomed around the country and
candidates host events nightly for constituents to get to
know them and become familiar with their platforms. The
focus is on local issues such as housing, education,
employment, sanitation, and health care, with incumbents
defending their record of delivering services to their
districts while challengers attack. There is a strong
anti-incumbent feeling among citizens, who complain that they
are no better off than they were four years ago, when the
current parliament was formed.


2. (C) Summary continued: Although complaints about the
fairness of the elections continue to be aired, the conduct
of the elections was fundamentally improved by the
government's actions in the aftermath of the Bandar report,
which accused a senior Royal Family member of attempting to
influence the outcome of elections in favor of Sunni
candidates who are friendly to the government. The accused
minister was removed from any role in conducting the
elections, the King decided not to use a controversial
e-voting system, and the government is allowing local
independent election monitors to operate. However, the
information minister announced November 21 that Bahrain
rejects the presence of international monitors and declared
that the elections will be fair and above-board.


3. (C) Summary continued: It is difficult to predict the
outcome of the elections, but we expect leading Shia
opposition society Al Wifaq to win about 14 seats while its
ally the liberal, secular Al Waad society and similar-minded
independents may win three seats, together forming the
largest bloc but representing just under half of the 40

seats. The Sunni Islamist Al Minbar and Al Asala societies
may each win five seats with a mix of independents -
pro-government, Sunni Islamists, unassociated Shias, and
others - making up the remaining 13 seats. Although the new
parliament will have many more religious figures, both Sunni
and Shia, raising the potential of a considerably more
conservative legislature, many observers believe that the
overriding feature will be the pursuit of two entirely
different agendas, by the Sunni Islamists (Shariah law) and
the Shia/oppositionists (social issues, constitutional
reform),which could exacerbate already existing sectarian
tensions. End Summary.

--------------
207 Candidates for 40 Parliamentary Seats
--------------


4. (C) Bahrain will hold parliamentary and municipal
elections November 25 and December 2 for the second time
since the establishment of the 2002 constitution. The
country is broken into forty districts and each district will
vote for one member of parliament and one member of a
municipal council. (Note: In the 2002 elections, the
parliamentary districts were different from the municipal
districts, but they have been unified for the 2006
elections.) The number of voters in each district varies
substantially, from the district comprising the southeastern
reaches of Bahrain with 1,175 voters to a district outside
the city of Manama with almost 15,500 voters. To win a seat
in either the elected lower house of parliament Council of
Representatives (COR) or the five municipal councils, a
candidate needs to obtain one vote more than 50% of ballots
cast. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round on
November 25, the top two vote-getters will compete in a
run-off on December 2. No firm date is set yet for the new
parliament to convene, but a professional staff member at the
COR told Emboffs it could happen in mid-December, to coincide
with the opening date of the last parliament in 2002, or
following the Eid Al Adha holiday in early January. The 40
members of the upper house of parliament, the Shura Council,
will all be appointed by the King.


MANAMA 00001953 002 OF 006



5. (C) At the conclusion of the candidate registration
period in mid-October, 221 candidates, 18 of whom are women,
nominated themselves to compete for the 40 COR seats. Since
that time, 14 candidates have dropped out of the
parliamentary race, leaving 207 remaining. (In late October,
171 candidates, including five women, registered to compete
for the 40 seats in the five municipal councils.) Of the 40
members of the last COR, 28 are running for re-election,
although two prominent members, Second Deputy Chair Shaikh
Adel Al Moawada and legislative committee member Farid Ghazi,
both changed their districts to improve their chances for
winning. Candidates are running either as members of a
political society list or independents. The major societies
are Shia opposition Al Wifaq, with 17 candidates; Sunni
Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Al Minbar Al Islami, with eight
candidates; centrist, moderate, non-sectarian Al Meethaq,
with six candidates; secular opposition Al Waad, with six
candidates; and Sunni Salafi Al Asala, with six candidates.

--------------
Political Activity in Run-Up to Elections
--------------


6. (C) Bahrain is known among regional countries for being
politically active, and the events of the past four weeks
have reaffirmed this reputation. Campaign tents, posters,
and flyers have blossomed, filling vacant lots, billboards,
and roadside median strips and shoulders. The tents are open
to all every night and represent an opportunity for
constituents to interact directly with the candidates.
Emboffs have observed lectures featuring guest speakers
covering issues such as economic development, trade and
investment, and Islamic Shariah law; unformatted
question-and-answer sessions with candidates; and small
roundtable discussions on national and local conditions. To
liven things up, one candidate organized a children's night,
with neighborhood kids playing games led by party organizers
and watching a film on the candidate's projection screen.
The candidates offer visitors coffee, tea, soft drinks, and
sweets, and some offer full hot meals. A recent newspaper
cartoon shows two overweight citizens complaining that
because of the food offered by candidates, they had both
regained weight lost during the month of Ramadan.

--------------
All Politics is Local
--------------


7. (C) The overriding theme of candidates' election
campaigns is local issues. As the presence of an elected
parliamentary chamber is a relatively new phenomenon, many
citizens have high, often unrealistic, expectations of an
MP's ability to deliver services, and so are asking pointed
questions about incumbents' achievements, and challengers'
plans, to improve the standard of living in the district.
COR First Deputy Chair Abdul Hadi Marhoon told Emboffs that
only five constituents have asked his views of the
constitution whereas a thousand have asked about his track
record in delivering housing, sanitation, health care,
employment, and education. For some candidates, this focus
on bread-and-butter issues moves them out of their comfort
zones. Al Waad candidate Munira Fakhro, a prominent
university professor and member of one of the country's
richest merchant families, and Al Wifaq candidate Jassim
Hussein, a Ph.D. economist and frequent contributor to
national and international media and journals, have commented
separately to Emboffs that the campaign has opened their eyes
to the living conditions and concerns of a swath of society
with which they had very little contact previously.


8. (C) Despite the sectarian reality pervading almost all
aspects of Bahraini politics, the message coming through in
candidates' advertising and pronouncements centers on the
unity of Bahrainis and Muslims. The initiative of local
blogger Mahmoud Al Yousef of "www.mahmood.tv" best symbolizes
this focus on unity. He has organized the manufacture and
distribution of buttons bearing the phrase, in English or
Arabic, "No Shi'i, No Sunni, Just Bahraini." Candidates'
campaign posters bear phrases such as "Only for the Nation,"
"For the Sake of the Nation and All Its Children," and "One
People, One Nation." Even conservative Salafi candidate
Shaikh Adel Al Moawada gave a lecture on the need for all
Arabs and Muslims to unite around the unifying Shariah law,
and blamed divisions within Muslims on the meddling of
foreigners, especially the British and Americans. (Note: He
cut short his harangue of the United States when he noticed
Emboff in the audience and graciously welcomed "our visitor
from the U.S. Embassy.")

--------------

MANAMA 00001953 003 OF 006


Incumbents on the Defensive
--------------


9. (C) Perhaps as a result of incumbents' inability to
deliver on previous campaign promises, there is a strong
anti-incumbent feeling among citizens. Bahrainis' notion of
the role of parliamentarians and even municipal council
members is not sophisticated - their job is to deliver
government-funded services to the community. (Comment: A
reference at this point to pork-barrel politics seems
inappropriate in this conservative Muslim country.) While a
minority, including the educated elite, disgruntled Shia
youth, and Islamist conservatives, is receptive to messages
about larger issues such as constitutional reform or fuller
implementation of Shariah law, the large majority of
Bahrainis are worried about their standard of living and
candidates' ability to improve this standard. Challengers
are exploiting this restiveness, publicly criticizing
incumbents for not paying close enough attention to their
constituents during their four years in office. Of course,
incumbents have the benefit of name recognition and can
easily distinguish themselves from a sometimes large group of
rivals. But voter unhappiness with the performance of
incumbents, along with other factors, is likely to result in
many sitting members losing their positions.

--------------
Pressure on Some Shia Candidates to Withdraw
--------------


10. (C) The decision of the four formerly boycotting
political societies - Al Wifaq, Al Waad, and two small
organizations - to participate in this year's election has
put into jeopardy the candidacies of Shia members of the
previous parliament. Al Wifaq and Al Waad, which proudly
proclaim themselves to be oppositionists, paint incumbents
and other moderate rivals as being government collaborators.
There are numerous reports of Al Wifaq pressuring competing
Shia candidates to withdraw from the elections, and several
have done so.


11. (C) Independent Shia MP Jassim Abdul Aal, who achieved
local renown for his grueling negotiations with the
government on the budget and his organization of a campaign
to remove a wall erected by a Royal Family member that
blocked his constituents from accessing the beach where their
fishing boats are moored, announced his decision to withdraw
from the election in early November. Only days later, he
reversed the decision reportedly in response to the pleas of
constituents and supporters. He said he had taken the
decision to withdraw to promote "unity within the community,"
and this move would have allowed the Al Wifaq candidate to
run with no serious competition. Independent Shia candidate
Dr. Jameela Al Sammak told Emboffs that Al Wifaq
representatives were applying serious pressure for her to
withdraw, which she refuses to do. During Emboffs' visit to
her tent, she pointed out the Al Wifaq envoys who had once
again come to demand her withdrawal. Even Al Sammak doubts
her candidacy represents much of a threat to the Al Wifaq
nominee, raising questions about Al Wifaq's motives in trying
to snuff out competing campaigns.

--------------
Improved Election Process Post-Bandar Report
--------------


12. (C) The conduct of the elections was fundamentally
altered, for the better, by steps the government has taken in
the aftermath of the Bandar report's accusations that a
senior member of the Royal Family was engaged in a complex
conspiracy to influence the outcome of parliamentary
elections in favor of Sunni candidates friendly to the
government (Ref E). Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs
and President of the Central Informatics Organization (CIO)
Shaikh Ahmed bin Attiyatallah Al Khalifa allegedly
distributed over $2.5 million to a newspaper, NGOs,
individual candidates, and others to boost the electoral
prospects of pro-government Sunnis while seeking to undermine
the candidacies of oppositionists. Shaikh Ahmed offered a
vigorous public defense of his actions while denying any
implied manipulation of the political system, and the
government has never addressed the issue, saying it is a
matter for the courts to deal with. Following several weeks
of allegations and commentary, a court ruled that all media
outlets, including blogs, had to cease publishing anything
about the case and remove any previous pieces from their
on-line archives.


13. (C) After his public defense of his actions in late
September, Shaikh Ahmed fell silent. Word spread that he

MANAMA 00001953 004 OF 006


went "on vacation" outside the country, and since his return
he has kept a very low profile. The government took, and
publicly announced, the decision to remove the CIO from any
executive or implementation role in the elections. Its sole
remaining responsibility was to provide all candidates with
census information about their constituents and
constituencies. (Note: Even this remains controversial.
Oppositionists complain that they received only bare-bones
hard-copy information while alleging that candidates friendly
to the government received complete data packs loaded on
CDs.) In response to widespread calls and criticism, King
Hamad decided not to use a CIO-developed e-voting system.


14. (C) Reversing a long-held and publicly declared policy,
the government engaged civil society to develop an election
observation scheme that was acceptable to both sides. The
Bahrain Transparency Society (BTS),Bahrain Human Rights
Society, and several other NGOs are organizing teams of local
independent monitors that will fan out across Bahrain on the
election days. Information Minister Mohammed Abdul Ghaffar
announced November 21 while opening an elections media center
that Bahrain rejects the presence of international monitors
for the elections. He wondered why Arabs "always bring in
foreigners to supervise us as if we are underage" and
declared that the elections will be fair and above-board.

--------------
Opposition Complains of General Poll Centers
--------------


15. (C) The two primary outstanding controversial issues
related to the conduct of the elections, from the
opposition's perspective, are the plan to use ten "general"
polling centers for out-of-district voters and rumors of a
"floating" bloc of voters that will be deployed to districts
with close races involving pro-government candidates. The
opposition fears that the general centers, at which residents
of any district in Bahrain can vote, might be used for
nefarious purposes that would be impossible to carry out at a
local voting center, where almost all voters are recognized
and known. The general center of greatest concern is the one
located very close to the causeway to Saudi Arabia. Many
Saudi citizens with roots in Bahrain, including members of
the Al Dossari tribe, hold Bahraini passports and can vote in
Bahraini elections. The opposition's working assumption is
that these dual nationals have no residence in Bahrain and
that the government assigns them addresses in districts with
mixed Sunni-Shia populations to bolster the Sunni candidates.
They are expected to vote at the causeway voting center
rather than at local centers, where they would be recognized
as outsiders. Despite many requests by opposition and
non-opposition leaders alike, the government has not budged
from its plan to use the general centers.


16. (C) The other outstanding issue is the opposition claim
that there is a "floating" bloc of some 8,000 newly
naturalized citizens who also do not have fixed addresses
registered with the government. Like with the Saudi dual
nationals, oppositionists fear these voters could be deployed
to sway election results in close races. The government has
denied the existence of floating voters and has challenged
proponents of the theory to show some proof of their claims.
BTS Chairman Jassim Al Ajmi told Poloff November 21 that the
High Election Commission's publicly announced plan to publish
the names of all those who voted immediately following the
elections would go a long way to address concerns about the
general polling centers and the alleged "floating" bloc.

--------------
Boycott, Apathy, Weather to Impact Turn-Out
--------------


17. (C) In a recent poll of 1,167 Bahrainis carried out by
the official election website, 60% said they would vote in
the elections, 32% said they would not, and 8% were not sure.
The 32% includes a mix of people who will not vote -
boycotters, the apathetic, and those who will not be able to
get to the polling centers for one reason or another.
Another factor that will influence participation is the
weather, which has been unusually cool and rainy. The
extended forecast for November 25 predicts mostly cloudy
weather, temperatures between 66 and 71 degrees, and with a
chance of rain in the evening. In a country with few weather
shelters other than canvas awnings to provide shade from the
sun, voters may decide not to venture out into the relatively
cool and possibly wet weather to vote.


18. (C) Although all registered political societies are
participating in the elections, the Shia rejectionist Haq
Movement continues to advocate a boycott of the elections.

MANAMA 00001953 005 OF 006


Their voice has been muted, reportedly as a result of a
"gentlemen's agreement" between Haq and Al Wifaq in which
each side agreed not to publicly criticize the position of
the other during the election period. However, Al Wifaq was
concerned enough about a boycott in two predominantly Shia
towns in the Central Governorate that leading Shia cleric
Shaikh Isa Qassem paid them a visit on November 2 to urge
citizens to vote. Al Wifaq reportedly is worried that if
enough people boycott, a non-Al Wifaq candidate may win.

--------------
Opposition to Fall Short of Majority in COR
--------------


19. (C) There is too short a track record on elections in
Bahrain and too many wild card factors to make any accurate
predictions about the outcome of the elections. However,
summarizing the views of our contacts, we believe
oppositionists - Al Wifaq, Al Waad, and allied independents -
will fall a few seats short of a majority of the COR. Of the
40 seats, Al Wifaq is expected to win about 14 while Al Waad
and independents associated with the opposition may win
three. The Sunni Islamist societies, Al Minbar and Al Asala,
have formed an alliance for the elections and should win
about ten of the 13 contests they are contesting, or five
seats for each society. Independents will take the bulk of
the remaining 13 seats. The independents represent a mixed
bag of political trends. There are pro-government candidates
(e.g., Lateefa Al Qaoud, who has already won a seat as she is
running unopposed),several Sunni Islamists (e.g., Southern
Governorate MP Jassim Al Saeedi),a patriarchal figure
(current COR Chairman Khalifa Al Dhahrani) and perhaps a few
unassociated Shia. Centrist, moderate groupings such as Al
Meethaq and the Democratic Progressive Tribunal may eke out a
seat or two.

--------------
Sectarian, Not Islamist, Parliament
--------------


20. (C) Some 70% of the members of the new COR are likely to
be associated with Islamic societies (Al Wifaq, Al Minbar, Al
Asala) or be self-declared independent Islamists (Al Saeedi),
and several of the new MPs will be religious clerics, raising
the potential of a considerably more conservative
legislature. However, many observers believe the overriding
feature of the Council will be the pursuit of two entirely
different agendas by the major power centers - the Sunni
Islamists, on one side, and the Shia and other
oppositionists, on the other. Al Minbar and Al Asala seek to
continue their efforts in the previous parliament to
introduce greater compliance with Shariah law into Bahraini
society while Al Wifaq and Al Waad have publicly emphasized
their planned legislative focus on social welfare services,
economic development, and employment wage growth, and
constitutional reform. Legislative actions to promote these
two non-intersecting agendas could exacerbate already
existing Sunni-Shia sectarian tensions in the country.
(Note: Privately, some Al Wifaq leaders have admitted that
they may be forced to vote in favor of the Sunnis'
religiously oriented non-binding "iqtirah bi raghba"
proposals, akin to a Sense of the Congress resolution, to
demonstrate their adherence to Islamic principles, but they
have emphasized their rejection of the Sunni Islamists' focus
on religious issues at the expense of national and social
issues.)


21. (C) Given the likelihood of this sect-based dynamic,
there are already allegations that the government will seek
to "keep the parliament busy" by having friendly Sunnis
introduce controversial measures that will stoke sectarian
friction. It remains to be seen whether this will happen.
But in this election period, a group of candidates that have
attracted some attention, both positive and negative, are
Sunni candidates allied with the opposition Al Wifaq. Al
Waad society President Ibrahim Sharif and candidates Munira
Fakhro, Abdul Rahman Al Nuaimi, and Sami Siadi, and
independent candidate Abdul Aziz Abul, are all secular Sunnis
who are in full agreement with Al Wifaq's focus on social
issues and constitutional reform. Sharif, Fakhro, and Abul
have described to Emboffs the nasty messages they have seen
complaining about their alliance with Shia oppositionists and
smearing them personally. In contrast with these
accusations, Sharif and Abul told us they see themselves as
possibly serving as a bridge between the two sects, removing
some of the sectarian overtones of legislative proposals.


********************************************* ********
Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website:

MANAMA 00001953 006 OF 006


http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/
********************************************* ********
MONROE