KING UNMOVED BY NDI EFFORT TO RETURN TO BAHRAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001866

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL BA BILAT POL REFORM
SUBJECT: KING UNMOVED BY NDI EFFORT TO RETURN TO BAHRAIN

Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe. Reason: 1.4 (B)(D)


1. (C) Summary. National Democratic Institute (NDI) Chairman
Madeleine Albright visited Bahrain October 28 in an effort to
find a way for NDI to resume its activities in Bahrain. She
received a warm welcome -- both officially and unofficially
-- but was unable to achieve a breakthrough on a return of
NDI to Bahrain. She pressed hard in her meeting with the
King, who gave no ground and said that it was important that
Bahrain's reform process not be seen as an American project.
Things were going well, he maintained, and he did not want to
provoke people and destroy the effort. He urged that NDI
find a way to work through the Bahrain Institute for
Political Development (BIPD). On the positive side, Dr.
Albright hosted a well-attended reception for political
activists and members of political societies, including
members of a delegation traveling to Washington this week to
participate in an NDI-funded program to observe the U.S.
elections. A well-respected columnist attributed the
regime's reluctance to welcome NDI back to the link being
made to the American efforts in Iraq, suggesting that the
leadership is comparing NDI's efforts with the Shia
opposition in Bahrain to the U.S. support for Shia in Iraq.
While the King gave little room for optimism in the short
run, it is possible that the political temperature in Bahrain
will cool once the Bahraini elections are over and attention
turns to the new Parliament in December. We will continue to
push the NDI case (Undersecretary Hughes raised it with the
Crown Prince November 1),but do not expect any positive
movement -- if it comes -- at least until after the
elections. End summary.


2. (C) NDI Chairman Madeleine Albright held a full day of
meetings in Bahrain October 28 in an effort to find a way for
NDI to resume its activities in Bahrain after its office was
closed and its local representative sent home last June. The
key meeting was with the King. After opening pleasantries,
Dr. Albright got right to the point, stating that she wanted
to talk frankly about what could be done to bring NDI back to
Bahrain and restore the strong relationship that had worked
so well for four years until NDI's abrupt departure in May.
The King replied that the key for Bahrain's reform process is
that it be seen as a home-grown model. Democracy will take
time to develop in Bahrain. Bahrain is about to hold its
second parliamentary elections. It hopes the elections will
go well. But Bahrain has to be careful. It cannot let the
reform process be seen as an American project. Extremists
will exploit that. "Having an American institution here at
this time will cause people to say that I am introducing
reforms here because of the Americans," he stated.


3. (C) The King said that there was a regional context to the
NDI situation. Saudi Arabia once had its own "NDI" in
Bahrain, teaching Wahhabism. He closed it down. The
Iranians would like to teach Khomeini-ism. If Bahrain had
institutes from the U.S., Britain, France, Iran, and India,
all teaching their brand of democracy, it would lead to a
cutting off of bridges to fellow Gulf states. And that would
not be good from a reform point of view, because Bahrain is
actually influencing reform in the Gulf countries in a
positive way. The UAE currently has a team from Bahrain
helping organize their elections. Bahrain is helping the
Qataris. Sultan Qaboos has called Bahrain a model for reform.
Bahrain's leadership on women's issues has had an impact in
the Gulf. This could all be jeopardized if the Gulf
countries see that an American institution is leading the
democracy effort in Bahrain. They will regard Bahrain as a
front for the Americans. "Frankly," he stated, "I don't want
to provoke people to destroy what we are doing. Things are
going well."


4. (C) At the same time, the King continued, "we do want to
work with NDI." His solution, he stated, was to form his own
"NDI," the Bahrain Institute for Political Development
(BIPD),which would have links with many foreign institutes,
especially NDI. He urged that NDI work through BIPD. It is
a new organization. "We would like BIPD to be on your side."


5. (C) Dr. Albright also discussed NDI during a lunch hosted
by Minister of Information/MFA Minister of State Mohammed
Abdul Ghaffar and attended by MFA Assistant Undersecretary
Shaikh Abdel Aziz bin Mubarak Al-Khalifa. BIPD head Lulwa

MANAMA 00001866 002 OF 003


Al-Awadi was expected to attended, but bowed out at the last
minute, citing a conflict with a meeting she had with the
King's wife, Shaikha Sabika. Abdul Ghaffar and Shaikh Abdel
Aziz expressed hope that the NDI problem could be resolved,
and attributed the current difficulties to a perception that
NDI had become too closely aligned with the opposition
Al-Wifaq society, as well as dissatisfaction with NDI's
former Bahrain representative Fawzi Guleid. Abdul Ghaffar
also mentioned a program NDI had run on redistricting which,
he said, had raised sensitive issues, rubbed the leadership
wrong, and not helped its cause.


6. (C) In the meeting with Shaikha Sabika, which was attended
by BIPD's Lulwa Al-Awadi, the King's wife proposed that the
Supreme Council for Women sign an MOU with NDI to run
programs on economic empowerment of women. Her proposal
seemed to encompass programs outside of NDI's mandate.


7. (SBU) While Dr. Albright made no headway on a return of
NDI to Bahrain, final arrangements are being concluded for a
delegation of 15 Bahrainis, both from political societies and
from the government (including BIPD),to travel to Washington
to observe the U.S. elections. (The group departed for the
U.S. on October 31.) Dr. Albright hosted a well-attended
reception for members of the delegation, as well as members
of political societies, women activists, Shura Council
members, and representatives from civil society.


8. (U) One of the attendees was influential columnist Sawsan
Sha'er, who recounted in an October 30 column a conversation
she had with Dr. Albright at the reception. She said that
she told Albright that she might not agree with the way the
regime dealt with NDI, but she also understood the regime's
fears and suspicions that made it insist not only on
expelling the institute but ensuring that it not work
independently. She told Albright there is a mental link
connecting everything democratic and American with the Iraq
situation. They look at U.S. policy in the region,
especially in Iraq, with suspicious eyes because of what they
perceive to be the U.S. policy of excluding and marginalizing
Sunnis in Iraq. "Nobody can help but compare your efforts to
contact and meet with the opposition that is wearing turbans
in Bahrain with your American guardianship of Al-Hakim, which
led him to a decision-making position in Iraq," she stated.
"Your efforts are viewed as a repetition of the Iraqi
scenario."


9. (U) In a second column on October 31, Sha'er expanded on
this theme, stating: "We have two realities that we cannot
ignore if we are to decide on the relationship between our
NGOs and American expertise. First, there are the
suspicions about the repetition of the American Iraqi example
which marginalized Sunnis and generated talk about a Shia
crescent. These are suspicions that Bahrain has, and we can
understand this if we take into consideration the size of the
Shia bloc (in Bahrain).... Second, we must admit modestly
that we need to benefit from the advanced American expertise,
which an organization like the UN cannot provide, let alone
Arab institutions (comment: she was no doubt referring to
BIPD) that some of our organizations try in vain to use as a
substitute for American expertise.... We were hoping that
Bahrain would deal with American expertise with
self-confidence and transparency...."


10. (C) Comment: Sha'er's commentaries underscore the
challenge that NDI faces in Bahrain in the current
environment: getting the government to accept needed and
desired American expertise on democratic reform in a country
whose leadership (Sunni rulers with a Shia majority
population) is on edge in a turbulent region. The King gave
little hope for optimism in the short run. On the other
hand, the government has approved participation in an
NDI-sponsored program to observe election day in the U.S.
And it is possible that the political temperature in Bahrain
will cool once the Bahraini elections are concluded and
attention turns to the new Parliament. We should continue to
push NDI's case, but we do not expect any positive movement
-- if indeed the government is to ease its position -- at
least until after the elections.

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