Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MANAMA1850
2006-11-01 07:51:00
SECRET
Embassy Manama
Cable title:
CROWN PRINCE TELLS GSD DELEGATION THAT U.S., GCC
how-toVZCZCXRO5958 OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK DE RUEHMK #1850/01 3050751 ZNY SSSSS ZZH O 010751Z NOV 06 FM AMEMBASSY MANAMA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5871 INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RHBVAKS/COMUSNAVCENT PRIORITY RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/JCS WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001850
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PARM BA IR REGION BILAT OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE TELLS GSD DELEGATION THAT U.S., GCC
NEED TO SEND STRONG MESSAGE TO IRAN
REF: STATE 171822
Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.
-------
Summary
-------
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001850
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PARM BA IR REGION BILAT OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE TELLS GSD DELEGATION THAT U.S., GCC
NEED TO SEND STRONG MESSAGE TO IRAN
REF: STATE 171822
Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (S) Crown Prince Salman told the interagency Gulf
Security Dialogue (GSD) delegation that the U.S. and its GCC
allies need to send a strong message to Iran, and suggested
holding a major military exercise in the region. He thought
it would be "a great motivator" for the other GCC countries
for the Saudi military chief of staff to inform his
counterparts that Saudi Arabia views favorably efforts to
promote multilateral interoperability. In response to a
question, the CP said that some GCC countries may be waiting
to see that the U.S. is fully committed to the region before
joining the GSD process. Iran will not be stopped "unless we
stand shoulder-to-shoulder," the CP said, while making every
effort to avoid military action. He agreed that the GOB
would form an interagency team to engage with the USG on the
Dialogue. Shaikh Salman explained his view that the most
serious fault line in the region was moderates versus
extremists, not Sunni versus Shia, and there should be a
serious effort made on the Israel-Palestinian peace process.
End Summary.
2. (S) The interagency Gulf Security Dialogue delegation led
by Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military
Affairs John Hillen and Assistant Secretary of Defense for
International Security Affairs Peter Rodman met with Crown
Prince Shaikh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa October 18 to
discuss achieving progress on the six pillars of the Dialogue
(reftel). The delegation also met with King Hamad bin Isa Al
Khalifa, Deputy Prime Minister Shaikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al
Khalifa, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs Assistant Under
Secretary for Coordination and Follow Up Shaikh Abdul Aziz
SIPDIS
bin Mubarak Al Khalifa (septels).
--------------
Enhancing the Security Relationship
--------------
3. (S) A/S Hillen opened the meeting with Crown Prince
Salman by recalling that the CP had challenged the GSD
delegation during their last visit in May to "put some meat
on the bones" of the Dialogue idea. As a result of that
challenge, the group had developed the concept of the six
pillars to accelerate, broaden, and deepen our bilateral
security relationship. He requested Shaikh Salman's reaction
to the proposals. The CP said that the read-ahead paper
focused on the most important areas and that the U.S.'s
bilateral approach to each of the GCC countries was the right
way to go at this point, but urged that the GSD become
multilateral. He continued that the U.S. and its GCC allies
needed to send a strong message by holding a major ("Bright
Star-like") military exercise in the region. Centcom's RADM
Moeller added that an exercise would promote bilateral
interoperability that could then be extended into
multilateral interoperability, the most effective military
posture for the region.
4. (S) Shaikh Salman agreed, saying it would irresponsible
not to do this, in particular in reference to a joint air
defense initiative. Bahrain would welcome a technical team
to discuss the Bilateral Air Defense Initiative as soon as
possible. The Bahrain Defense Force's (BDF) capabilities
must be up-to-speed. In response to the CP's question, A/S
Hillen said the USG had spoken to the Saudis about the air
defense initiative and they were supportive. The CP
commented that it would be beneficial for the Saudi military
chief of staff to tell his GCC counterparts that Saudi Arabia
viewed the initiative favorably, calling such a message "a
great motivator" for others in the region. A/S Rodman added
that the Kuwaitis also supported the air defense initiative.
Shaikh Salman stressed the importance of joint military
planning, stating that the BDF wants to make better use of
the Military Coordination Committee and reconstitute the
Military Planning Committee.
--------------
Getting the GCC On Board
--------------
MANAMA 00001850 002 OF 003
5. (S) A/S Rodman said that Oman and Qatar had not been as
supportive of the GSD concept as the U.S. would like and
requested the CP's thoughts. Shaikh Salman replied that all
countries want to halt the spread of Iranian power and
contain its strategic position. However, some GCC countries
were still feeling the effects of the U.S. pulling back from
the region after 9/11. Next, the USG's reform push had led
to some results that were not desirable in the short term.
People may be unsure of the U.S.'s strategic commitment to
the region. Omanis are practical. They want to be sure the
U.S. is on a "solid trajectory" before committing to the GSD.
But, he said, the U.S. has to rebuild confidence with some
in the GCC.
6. (S) Turning to Qatar, Shaikh Salman said their attitude
was marked by contrariness. Deputy Prime Minister Shaikh
Mohammed added that Qatar wants a role on the world stage
that is bigger than its size justifies. The CP said that
Qatar had taken some steps in the UN Security Council and
with Al Jazeera that were not helpful. They claim they have
to balance the presence of U.S. forces at Al Udeid with Al
Jazeera, but the CP does not accept this argument. He said
we need Qatar on board and offered to work with the GOQ on
this. He cautioned that the key is to get the Saudis back to
where they had been with Qatar. He noted that he had just
visited Saudi Arabia and Prince Sultan recognizes there has
been a shift regarding Iran and knows what needs to be done.
--------------
Iran Respects Strength
--------------
7. (S) Regarding Iran, the CP said the GOI engages in proxy
wars, supports terror groups, and funds a big WMD program.
Iran will not be stopped "unless we stand firm
shoulder-to-shoulder." Thus, the USG should provide a
"security umbrella." Iranians respect strength. Every
effort should be made to avoid military action and to explain
to the government the consequences of its behavior. The U.S.
should work with the Chinese, Indians, and Russians on this,
and the U.S. could attend an EU-3 session with Iran as an
observer. If this fails, the focus should turn to
intelligence efforts to disrupt Iran's nuclear program. The
GOI cannot sustain the program without the Chinese.
8. (S) If, however, there needs to be military action, the
focus must be on changing the Iranian regime's behavior, the
CP said. The U.S. should not talk about nation building or
liberation; this serves only to confuse the issue. Once the
decision is made to drop bombs, the goal must be nation
defeating. A/S Hillen suggested that the Gulf states also
reach out to the Iranian people and explain that pursuing
nuclear weapons is not in the country's interests. The CP
agreed that there are moderates within Iranian society who
could respond to such an argument but they are not united and
are difficult to identify. A/S Hillen said the GSD process
puts pressure on Iran to change its behavior. The CP said
Iran thinks it has the upper hand in Lebanon and Iraq, and
now plays the role of the center of anti-U.S. influence in
the region.
--------------
Protecting Infrastructure, Regional CT Center
--------------
9. (S) Referring to the read-ahead paper, A/S Hillen
requested the CP's thoughts on protecting critical
infrastructure. Regarding oil exports, Shaikh Salman said
there should be alternate routes to the Strait of Hormuz. He
noted that regional countries generally consider it to be
their responsibility to protect oil from the ground to the
ships, and the international community's responsibility to
protect it from that point on. There are many possible ways
to look at this issue, including energy alternatives, that
could be addressed in future GSD sessions.
10. (S) In response to A/S Hillen's question, the CP said
there was not enough support in the GCC (including within the
government of Bahrain) for a regional counter-terrorism
center. There may be a way to work together to get the same
results but without a high profile center, which could become
a target. The goal was to build a system that gets
information to the right people in a timely manner, and there
could be a way to create a "virtual" regional center by
connecting national centers. The CP proposed locating the
physical hardware to link the centers in Bahrain and
MANAMA 00001850 003 OF 003
suggested people should approach this issue pragmatically.
--------------
GSD Follow Through
--------------
11. (S) The CP asked about following through on the
Dialogue. A/S Hillen said the U.S. and Bahrain should form a
multi-agency task force that meets twice per year to cover
the range of subjects. In the meantime, working groups would
meet on specific issues. The CP agreed, saying the GOB would
form an interagency team.
--------------
War of Ideas - Moderates vs. Extremists
--------------
12. (S) The Crown Prince stated that the most serious fault
line in the region is not Sunni/Shia, it is moderates versus
extremists. The issue is all about power, not religion. He
cautioned against going too far with a sectarian analysis.
There must be a serious effort made on the peace process.
The Palestinians have to take the lead and deal seriously
with the Israelis. But the U.S. should send a message that
when the Palestinians are ready, it will work with them.
Abbas might pull out all the stops and hold a national
referendum on peace. If he does so, and we cannot get
negotiations started, "this could be our last shot." The CP
acknowledged that the Arabs could have been more forceful in
the past with the Palestinians, but Iran had not been as much
a clear and present danger at that time. A/S Rodman assured
the CP that the U.S. was active on the issue.
13. (S) Deputy PM Shaikh Mohammed explained that Palestinian
President Abbas had asked that Bahrain approach Syria about
being more positive with the Palestinians. Foreign Minister
Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa had just visited President
Asad in Damascus, who had provided assurances that Syria was
ready to cooperate. However, the CP added, Syria is "not on
Saudi Arabia and Egypt's good list" and the Syrians are not
banging on the door looking to come in from the cold.
14. (U) A/S Hillen and A/S Rodman cleared this cable.
********************************************* ********
Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/
********************************************* ********
MONROE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PARM BA IR REGION BILAT OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE TELLS GSD DELEGATION THAT U.S., GCC
NEED TO SEND STRONG MESSAGE TO IRAN
REF: STATE 171822
Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.
--------------
Summary
--------------
1. (S) Crown Prince Salman told the interagency Gulf
Security Dialogue (GSD) delegation that the U.S. and its GCC
allies need to send a strong message to Iran, and suggested
holding a major military exercise in the region. He thought
it would be "a great motivator" for the other GCC countries
for the Saudi military chief of staff to inform his
counterparts that Saudi Arabia views favorably efforts to
promote multilateral interoperability. In response to a
question, the CP said that some GCC countries may be waiting
to see that the U.S. is fully committed to the region before
joining the GSD process. Iran will not be stopped "unless we
stand shoulder-to-shoulder," the CP said, while making every
effort to avoid military action. He agreed that the GOB
would form an interagency team to engage with the USG on the
Dialogue. Shaikh Salman explained his view that the most
serious fault line in the region was moderates versus
extremists, not Sunni versus Shia, and there should be a
serious effort made on the Israel-Palestinian peace process.
End Summary.
2. (S) The interagency Gulf Security Dialogue delegation led
by Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military
Affairs John Hillen and Assistant Secretary of Defense for
International Security Affairs Peter Rodman met with Crown
Prince Shaikh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa October 18 to
discuss achieving progress on the six pillars of the Dialogue
(reftel). The delegation also met with King Hamad bin Isa Al
Khalifa, Deputy Prime Minister Shaikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al
Khalifa, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs Assistant Under
Secretary for Coordination and Follow Up Shaikh Abdul Aziz
SIPDIS
bin Mubarak Al Khalifa (septels).
--------------
Enhancing the Security Relationship
--------------
3. (S) A/S Hillen opened the meeting with Crown Prince
Salman by recalling that the CP had challenged the GSD
delegation during their last visit in May to "put some meat
on the bones" of the Dialogue idea. As a result of that
challenge, the group had developed the concept of the six
pillars to accelerate, broaden, and deepen our bilateral
security relationship. He requested Shaikh Salman's reaction
to the proposals. The CP said that the read-ahead paper
focused on the most important areas and that the U.S.'s
bilateral approach to each of the GCC countries was the right
way to go at this point, but urged that the GSD become
multilateral. He continued that the U.S. and its GCC allies
needed to send a strong message by holding a major ("Bright
Star-like") military exercise in the region. Centcom's RADM
Moeller added that an exercise would promote bilateral
interoperability that could then be extended into
multilateral interoperability, the most effective military
posture for the region.
4. (S) Shaikh Salman agreed, saying it would irresponsible
not to do this, in particular in reference to a joint air
defense initiative. Bahrain would welcome a technical team
to discuss the Bilateral Air Defense Initiative as soon as
possible. The Bahrain Defense Force's (BDF) capabilities
must be up-to-speed. In response to the CP's question, A/S
Hillen said the USG had spoken to the Saudis about the air
defense initiative and they were supportive. The CP
commented that it would be beneficial for the Saudi military
chief of staff to tell his GCC counterparts that Saudi Arabia
viewed the initiative favorably, calling such a message "a
great motivator" for others in the region. A/S Rodman added
that the Kuwaitis also supported the air defense initiative.
Shaikh Salman stressed the importance of joint military
planning, stating that the BDF wants to make better use of
the Military Coordination Committee and reconstitute the
Military Planning Committee.
--------------
Getting the GCC On Board
--------------
MANAMA 00001850 002 OF 003
5. (S) A/S Rodman said that Oman and Qatar had not been as
supportive of the GSD concept as the U.S. would like and
requested the CP's thoughts. Shaikh Salman replied that all
countries want to halt the spread of Iranian power and
contain its strategic position. However, some GCC countries
were still feeling the effects of the U.S. pulling back from
the region after 9/11. Next, the USG's reform push had led
to some results that were not desirable in the short term.
People may be unsure of the U.S.'s strategic commitment to
the region. Omanis are practical. They want to be sure the
U.S. is on a "solid trajectory" before committing to the GSD.
But, he said, the U.S. has to rebuild confidence with some
in the GCC.
6. (S) Turning to Qatar, Shaikh Salman said their attitude
was marked by contrariness. Deputy Prime Minister Shaikh
Mohammed added that Qatar wants a role on the world stage
that is bigger than its size justifies. The CP said that
Qatar had taken some steps in the UN Security Council and
with Al Jazeera that were not helpful. They claim they have
to balance the presence of U.S. forces at Al Udeid with Al
Jazeera, but the CP does not accept this argument. He said
we need Qatar on board and offered to work with the GOQ on
this. He cautioned that the key is to get the Saudis back to
where they had been with Qatar. He noted that he had just
visited Saudi Arabia and Prince Sultan recognizes there has
been a shift regarding Iran and knows what needs to be done.
--------------
Iran Respects Strength
--------------
7. (S) Regarding Iran, the CP said the GOI engages in proxy
wars, supports terror groups, and funds a big WMD program.
Iran will not be stopped "unless we stand firm
shoulder-to-shoulder." Thus, the USG should provide a
"security umbrella." Iranians respect strength. Every
effort should be made to avoid military action and to explain
to the government the consequences of its behavior. The U.S.
should work with the Chinese, Indians, and Russians on this,
and the U.S. could attend an EU-3 session with Iran as an
observer. If this fails, the focus should turn to
intelligence efforts to disrupt Iran's nuclear program. The
GOI cannot sustain the program without the Chinese.
8. (S) If, however, there needs to be military action, the
focus must be on changing the Iranian regime's behavior, the
CP said. The U.S. should not talk about nation building or
liberation; this serves only to confuse the issue. Once the
decision is made to drop bombs, the goal must be nation
defeating. A/S Hillen suggested that the Gulf states also
reach out to the Iranian people and explain that pursuing
nuclear weapons is not in the country's interests. The CP
agreed that there are moderates within Iranian society who
could respond to such an argument but they are not united and
are difficult to identify. A/S Hillen said the GSD process
puts pressure on Iran to change its behavior. The CP said
Iran thinks it has the upper hand in Lebanon and Iraq, and
now plays the role of the center of anti-U.S. influence in
the region.
--------------
Protecting Infrastructure, Regional CT Center
--------------
9. (S) Referring to the read-ahead paper, A/S Hillen
requested the CP's thoughts on protecting critical
infrastructure. Regarding oil exports, Shaikh Salman said
there should be alternate routes to the Strait of Hormuz. He
noted that regional countries generally consider it to be
their responsibility to protect oil from the ground to the
ships, and the international community's responsibility to
protect it from that point on. There are many possible ways
to look at this issue, including energy alternatives, that
could be addressed in future GSD sessions.
10. (S) In response to A/S Hillen's question, the CP said
there was not enough support in the GCC (including within the
government of Bahrain) for a regional counter-terrorism
center. There may be a way to work together to get the same
results but without a high profile center, which could become
a target. The goal was to build a system that gets
information to the right people in a timely manner, and there
could be a way to create a "virtual" regional center by
connecting national centers. The CP proposed locating the
physical hardware to link the centers in Bahrain and
MANAMA 00001850 003 OF 003
suggested people should approach this issue pragmatically.
--------------
GSD Follow Through
--------------
11. (S) The CP asked about following through on the
Dialogue. A/S Hillen said the U.S. and Bahrain should form a
multi-agency task force that meets twice per year to cover
the range of subjects. In the meantime, working groups would
meet on specific issues. The CP agreed, saying the GOB would
form an interagency team.
--------------
War of Ideas - Moderates vs. Extremists
--------------
12. (S) The Crown Prince stated that the most serious fault
line in the region is not Sunni/Shia, it is moderates versus
extremists. The issue is all about power, not religion. He
cautioned against going too far with a sectarian analysis.
There must be a serious effort made on the peace process.
The Palestinians have to take the lead and deal seriously
with the Israelis. But the U.S. should send a message that
when the Palestinians are ready, it will work with them.
Abbas might pull out all the stops and hold a national
referendum on peace. If he does so, and we cannot get
negotiations started, "this could be our last shot." The CP
acknowledged that the Arabs could have been more forceful in
the past with the Palestinians, but Iran had not been as much
a clear and present danger at that time. A/S Rodman assured
the CP that the U.S. was active on the issue.
13. (S) Deputy PM Shaikh Mohammed explained that Palestinian
President Abbas had asked that Bahrain approach Syria about
being more positive with the Palestinians. Foreign Minister
Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa had just visited President
Asad in Damascus, who had provided assurances that Syria was
ready to cooperate. However, the CP added, Syria is "not on
Saudi Arabia and Egypt's good list" and the Syrians are not
banging on the door looking to come in from the cold.
14. (U) A/S Hillen and A/S Rodman cleared this cable.
********************************************* ********
Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/
********************************************* ********
MONROE