Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MANAMA1828
2006-10-24 11:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Manama
Cable title:  

CROWN PRINCE OUTLINES REGIONAL CHALLENGES WITH

Tags:  PREL MARR MOPS MASS BA IR IZ REGION BILAT 
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VZCZCXRO8298
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHMK #1828/01 2971133
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 241133Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5830
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHBVAKS/COMUSNAVCENT PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001828 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS MASS BA IR IZ REGION BILAT
OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE OUTLINES REGIONAL CHALLENGES WITH
GENERAL ABIZAID

Classified By: DCM Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

-------
Summary
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001828

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS MASS BA IR IZ REGION BILAT
OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE OUTLINES REGIONAL CHALLENGES WITH
GENERAL ABIZAID

Classified By: DCM Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) CENTCOM Commander General Abizaid October 11 met with
Crown Prince Shaikh Salman and discussed Iraq, Iran, the war
of ideas in the Middle East, and Bahrain's upcoming
elections. On Iraq, the CP said that the United States
should adopt a "less forward-leaning position" and allow
Iraqi forces to take the front lines. This could have
several beneficial effects, including shoring up support in
the United States for continued military engagement in Iraq.
Turning to Iran, the CP recommended there be a robust
demonstration of resolve, capability, and duty by the U.S.
and its allies in the region. He suggested the U.S. and GCC
hold an exercise like Bright Star to send a message to Iran.
Stressing that the diplomatic track was by far preferable,
the CP said that if it comes to war with Iran, the goal must
be to defeat them and force the government to surrender.
There should be no talk of liberating the people or
nation-building. The biggest long-term challenge facing the
region is a war of ideas, with the forces of moderation
confronting extremism. He offered his broad policy
prescriptions for winning this struggle. The CP said that
good things were happening in Bahrain in the run-up to
parliamentary and municipal elections in November. End
Summary.

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Put Iraqis on the Front Lines
--------------


2. (C) CENTCOM Commander General Abizaid and delegation
October 11 met with Crown Prince Shaikh Salman bin Hamad Al
Khalifa over a Ramadan iftar and discussed Iraq, Iran, the
war of ideas in the Middle East, and Bahraini elections.
Defense Minister General Shaikh Khalifa bin Ahmed Al Khalifa
participated in the meeting. The CP said that he had seen
Iraqi President Talibani and Ambassador Khalilzad at an Aspen
Institute event he had attended in September. He said it was

clear that Talbani's mission had been to present reasons to
ensure that American forces remain in Iraq.


3. (C) In the CP's view, however, the United States should
pull back to a "less forward-leaning position" in Iraq. This
would have multiple benefits: it could result in (a) shoring
up public support in the United States for continued military
engagement in Iraq; (b) forcing the Iraqis to take more
responsibility for their own security; and (c) putting the
GOI into the position of having to request assistance from
its Arab neighbors - not Iran - something it had not yet
done. In this regard, he recommended that PM Maliki visit
key regional Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia and
Egypt, to develop relationships with their leaders. It could
be useful for Ambassador Khalilzad to accompany Maliki on
these visits. GEN Abizaid stated that the level of violence
between various groups and militias in Iraq is high. The CP
agreed, saying that the primary challenges facing the Iraq
government are security, federalism, oil, and external
relations.

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Military Exercise to Send Signal to Iran
--------------


4. (C) Turning to Iran, Shaikh Salman said that Iranian
leaders believe they have a mission "greater than
themselves." They are arrogant in their perception of the
country's civilization, culture, and history. There should
be a "robust demonstration of resolve, capability, and duty"
by the U.S. and its allies in the region to deter, contain,
and prevent Iran. Iran may believe that the U.S. is mired in
Iraq, but regional unity and cooperation can persuade Iran
otherwise. The CP suggested that the United States consider
holding an exercise like Bright Star with the GCC in the
Gulf. He understands that Saudi Arabia may be interested in
participating in something like this. A Bright Star-type
exercise would send the right signal to Iran. Even if the
entire GCC does not sign on, Bahrain would participate.
NAVCENT VADM Walsh suggested that a maritime exercise could
be the best way to begin and noted that NAVCENT and Bahraini
naval officers would meet soon to discuss the nature of
Bahraini participation in Combined Task Force-150 and 152.
The CP commented that if Bahrain joins one of the task
forces, other GCC countries would be interested in
participating also.

MANAMA 00001828 002 OF 003




5. (C) The Crown Prince recommended that the United States
sit down with Iran, even as an observer at multi-party talks.
However, if diplomatic efforts did not succeed and there is
to be war, the goal must be to defeat Iran. Do not say you
are coming to "liberate" the people, he advised, or engage in
nation-building. Rather, the goal must be to defeat them and
force the government to surrender. It would be dangerous to
assume that Iran would change its behavior in reaction to a
limited strike. Looking closer to home, Shaikh Salman said
that Bahrain would be on the front lines in the case of war
with Iran. The GOB needs to understand better the possible
impact of a conflict with Iran on Bahraini society. While
military planning is important, there needs to be a wider
ranging assessment, considering such issues as possible
nuclear contamination of Gulf waters.

--------------
Prescriptions for The War of Ideas
--------------


6. (C) Shaikh Salman said that the biggest long-term
challenge in the region is ideological. The region is facing
a struggle of ideas. One idea, religious extremism, is
linked to religion and the after-life. The other, democracy,
is "dirty, earthy, and secular." Given this dynamic, is it
easy to see why the forces of moderation are under pressure.
The Israel-Palestinian conflict, "the meta-banner over the
battlefield," provides fodder for the extremists. The CP
expressed his view that Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid bin
Ahmed Al Khalifa's presentation to the UN Security Council on
the Arab initiative on the Palestinian conflict had gone
well. Noting that Shaikh Khalid had recently visited
Palestinian President Abbas, Shaikh Salman said "we are
leaning forward with the Israelis while others lean back."


7. (C) The Crown Prince offered his "broad prescriptions"
for winning the war of ideas in the region. First, he
recommended that the U.S. softn some of its political reform
agenda. This woul be viewed favorably by key regional
actors - Sadi Arabia and Egypt - and generate support for
US. diplomatic efforts addressing other issues. Th larger
issue of democracy will survive in he long term. Second, he
said that all parties must recognize that Iraq is not a model
for democracy in the Middle East. It was critical that the
U.S. pull it forces back from the front lines while the
Iraqis step up. This transition period could be violent and
unstable, but it is necessary.

--------------
Focus on Moderates vs. Extremists
--------------


8. (C) The CP's third prescription is that the territorial
integrity of Iraq must be preserved. This is the main thing,
he said. He recalled that Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad had
told him a year ago that it was in Iran's interest that there
be a weak government in Iraq. Ahmadi-Nejad, the CP said, is
an "enemy of progress" in Iraq. Finally, he said that if
moderates cannot deliver peace and prosperity, they will be
viewed as U.S. or Western collaborators without credibility.
The extremists would benefit from this perception. Many
people are now focusing on sectarian violence. This is a
terrible phenomenon, but "it could end in minutes." Sunni
and Shia can cooperate when it is in their interest to do so,
citing Hamas and Hizballah as an example. The real issue is
ideological, the moderates versus the extremists, and this is
where the U.S. should focus its attention.


9. (C) Tactically, the Crown Prince said, we may be winning
the fight against extremists, but we are losing the strategic
war of ideologies. "We need a better idea" to present to
people, he stated. In terms of fighting terrorists, he
thought that Saudi Arabia was now doing a better job. "On
9-11, Saudi Arabia was asleep. With the May (2004) attacks
(in Khobar),it woke up. This past year, it is now starting
to get out of bed," he said.

--------------
Broad Support for Political Reform
--------------


10. (C) In response to GEN Abizaid's question, the CP said
that good things were happening in Bahrain in the run-up to
the November parliamentary and municipal elections. There
had been a general expectation that sectarian tensions in
Iraq could spill over into Bahrain during the election
period. But so far things were going well and he is

MANAMA 00001828 003 OF 003


confident of a decent election. He noted that King Hamad had
met with both Sunni and Shia clerics about the elections.
All are very supportive of the political reform process in
the country, and the CP pledged that it will continue.


11. (U) GEN Abizaid cleared this cable.


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