Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MANAMA1782
2006-10-12 14:24:00
SECRET
Embassy Manama
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR OCTOBER 18-19 VISIT OF THE GULF

Tags:  PREL MARR MOPS MASS BA IR REGION BILAT 
pdf how-to read a cable
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O 121424Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5768
INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHBVAKS/COMUSNAVCENT PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001782 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS MASS BA IR REGION BILAT
OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR OCTOBER 18-19 VISIT OF THE GULF
SECURITY DIALOGUE DELEGATION

Classified By: CDA Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001782

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS MASS BA IR REGION BILAT
OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR OCTOBER 18-19 VISIT OF THE GULF
SECURITY DIALOGUE DELEGATION

Classified By: CDA Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) We warmly welcome the October 18-19 visit to Bahrain
of the interagency Gulf Security Dialogue delegation led by
PM Assistant Secretary Hillen and DOD Assistant Secretary for
International Security Rodman. Your trip follows on the
heels of the October 11 visit of CENTCOM Commander General
Abizaid, who discussed regional security, in particular Iran
and Iraq, at length with Crown Prince Shaikh Salman bin Hamad
Al Khalifa and Defense Minister General Shaikh Khalifa bin
Ahmed Al Khalifa. You will also meet with the Crown Prince,
with the Defense Minister participating in that meeting, and
separately with Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al
Khalifa.


2. (S) Your Bahraini interlocutors remain concerned about
heightened tensions with Iran and will want to hear your
views on U.S. plans to contain Iran, with specific reference
to Iran's nuclear ambitions. The GOB is suspicious of Iran's
nuclear program and its assertiveness in dealing with the
Arab Gulf States but remains engaged in a "correct" bilateral
relationship. Bahrain is interested in enhancing our mil-mil
relationship in light of Iran, proposing a regional or
bilateral exercise, assistance in updating military plans on
Iran, systems interoperability, and participation in a
coalition naval task force in the NAVCENT AOR. Bahrain is
closely watching political and security developments in Iraq
and is concerned about the potential for civil war and
resulting sectarian violence spilling over into the region.
Bahrain passed and implemented a counter-terrorism law that
specifically criminalizes conspiracy, but the public
prosecutor judged that the law's provisions did not allow him
to charge several young Sunni extremists who confessed
recently to planning to travel to Afghanistan for "jihad."
The King announced that parliamentary and municipal elections
will be held on November 25, and politicians and political

societies representing a broad range of opinion will
participate. A recent report alleging a senior government
official's organized attempt to sway election outcomes has
roiled the political scene.

--------------
Dealing With Iran
--------------


3. (C) The Bahraini leadership is greatly concerned about
increased tensions between the international community and
Iran. Bahrain hosted a two-day conference in mid-September
for GCC countries during which the Interior Minister
expressed concern about GCC countries finding themselves
caught in the middle of nuclear powers. Crown Prince Salman
suggested to GEN Abizaid that the U.S. and GCC countries hold
an exercise similar to Bright Star in the Gulf, which would
send a strong signal to Iran. He claimed the Saudis are
interested in participating in such an exercise, but welcomed
a bilateral exercise if a regional one proved too difficult.
The Defense Minister said that Bahrain had not updated its
military plans on Iran in ten years and requested the
participation of a U.S. team to assist in an effort to do so.


4. (C) The GOB continues to express interest in improving
its air defense posture and has inquired about obtaining
Patriot missiles, a capability that is currently beyond the
limits of FMS/FMF. A plus-up in FMF will be necessary for
Bahrain to participate in the Bilateral Air Defense
Initiative, which will provide theater ballistic missile
early warning and will integrate with the HAWK-A system that
the Bahrainis have already procured. The U.S.-organized
Proliferation Security Initiative Leading Edge exercise will
take place in Bahrain at the end of October. Bahrain will
participate in the exercise, with the boarding/interrogation
portion taking place in its territorial waters. Bahrain will
soon sign a bilateral Chemical Weapons Convention Host
Country MOU with us, another sign of cooperation in dealing
with possible Iranian challenges and attempts to cause
friction between the U.S. and Bahrain.


5. (C) Bahrain's relationship with Iran is complex. The
Bahraini leadership is united in its suspicion of Iranian
intentions regarding Bahrain and often sees an Iranian hand
in incidents involving Bahrain's Shia community, which
comprises some 70 percent of the country's citizens. They
are convinced Iran seeks to develop nuclear weapons and
assert its influence around the region. At the same time,
Bahrain faces the reality that it must live with its large

MANAMA 00001782 002 OF 003


neighbor across the Gulf. Bahrain maintains "correct" but
not warm diplomatic relations with Iran, with Bahraini
leaders welcoming Iranian officials when they visit.
Bahraini officials repeatedly assert their strong view that
the international community should engage in diplomacy to
deal with Iran, and not resort to a military solution. They
recognize, however, that a robust military posture can
facilitate diplomacy. The economic relationship is based on
Bahraini imports of Iranian fruit and other foodstuffs and
some Iranian investment in Bahrain. It is not clear that the
Bahraini leadership has come to grips with how it will handle
efforts to ratchet up the pressure on Iran if that includes,
for example, calls for cutbacks in trade and engagement.

--------------
Next Steps on Iraq
--------------


6. (C) The GOB publicly supports U.S. operations in Iraq,
but as the Crown Prince Salman told GEN Abizaid, it believes
Iraqi forces should be moving to the front lines in place of
coalition forces. He believes there would be three benefits
to such a move: it would (a) shore up support in the United
States for continued military engagement in Iraq; (b) force
Iraqis to take responsibility for their own security; and (c)
put the GOI into the position of requesting assistance from
its Arab neighbors, which it has not yet done. You could
brief your interlocutors on the state of play in Iraq and
urge them to continue their public support of the Iraqi
government. The GOB's greatest concern related to Iraq is
that sectarian tensions and violence could spill over into
Bahrain. Bahraini officials will support long-term measures
to reduce sectarian violence while recognizing that the
near-term situation in Iraq is extremely difficult.

--------------
Participation in Combined Task Force
--------------


7. (C) The King and CP have affirmed their interest in the
Bahraini Navy participating in coalition operations in the
region, in particular in Combined Task Force (CTF) 150, which
patrols the Arabian Sea, or CTF-152, in the Gulf. NAVCENT
VADM Walsh told the CP October 11 that NAVCENT and the
Bahraini Navy are engaged in a constructive conversation
about Bahrain's participation. He noted that Bahrain could
participate in many ways, including information exchange,
placement of liaison officers, or commitment of ships and
other resources.

--------------
Counter-Terrorism Law
--------------


8. (S) A counter-terrorism bill entitled "Protecting Society
from Terrorists Acts" entered into force in August. The law
defines the types of acts considered to be terrorism, applies
tough penalties, and criminalizes conspiracy to commit
terrorist acts. There is some question about whether the
conspiracy clause will hold up given the constitutional
court's June decision that a similar article in the penal
code was unconstitutional. In a first test of the law, the
prosecutor general in late September released eight Bahrainis
on bond following an investigation into possible terrorist
activities. Although several members of the cell admitted to
planning to travel to Afghanistan for "jihad," the prosecutor
general decided he did not have enough evidence to charge
them under the CT law.

--------------
Elections Announced for November 25
--------------


9. (C) The King announced September 28 that the first round
of parliamentary and municipal elections will be held on
November 25 and the second round one week later on December

2. All of the formerly boycotting political societies have
registered with the government and announced their
participation in the elections. The new parliament will
include a much broader cross-section of Bahraini political
opinion, enhancing its credibility. A recently leaked report
drafted by a former advisor to a minister and senior member
of the ruling family alleges that the minister had organized
a secret team and disbursed over $2.5 million in an attempt
to sway election results. The resulting uproar has roiled

MANAMA 00001782 003 OF 003


the political scene with many politicians and societies
demanding an investigation and removal of those involved in
the conspiracy. Possibly in response to the outcry, the King
announced that e-voting would not be used in the elections, a
key demand of activists and oppositionists, and there is a
likelihood that truly independent election monitors will be
allowed to deploy.


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ZIADEH