SCENESETTER FOR U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND COMMANDER

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 001753

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016
TAGS: MARR MOPS PREL PTER ASEC BA REGION BILAT
OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND COMMANDER
GENERAL ABIZAID'S OCTOBER 11-12 VISIT TO BAHRAIN

Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (S) General Abizaid, we warmly welcome your October 11-12
visit to Bahrain. Your Bahraini interlocutors remain
concerned about heightened tensions with Iran and will want
to hear your views on U.S. plans to contain Iran, with
specific reference to Iran's nuclear ambitions. The GOB is
suspicious of Iran's nuclear program and its assertiveness in
dealing with the Arab Gulf States but remains engaged in a
"correct" bilateral relationship. An interagency delegation
will visit Bahrain October 18-19 to promote the U.S. Gulf
Security Dialogue and discuss possible developments in
linking GCC air defense capabilities to deter the Iranian
threat. Bahrain is closely watching political and security
developments in Iraq and is concerned about the potential for
civil war and resulting sectarian violence spilling over into
the region. In an effort to support allied operations in the
region, the King proposed Bahraini participation in CTF-150,
and discussions have begun on this with the U.S. Navy.
Bahrain passed and implemented a counter-terrorism law that
specifically criminalizes conspiracy, but the public
prosecutor judged that the law's provisions did not allow him
to charge several young Sunni extremists who confessed
recently to planning to travel to Afghanistan for "jihad."
The King announced that parliamentary and municipal elections
will be held on November 25, and politicians and political
societies representing a broad range of opinion will
participate. A recent report alleging a senior government
official's organized attempt to sway election outcomes has
roiled the political scene. End Summary.

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Dealing With Iran
--------------


2. (C) The Bahraini leadership is greatly concerned about
increased tensions between the international community and
Iran. Bahrain hosted a two-day conference in mid-September
for GCC countries during which the Interior Minister
expressed concern about GCC countries finding themselves
caught in the middle of nuclear powers. GOB continues to
express interest in improving its air defense posture and has
inquired about obtaining Patriot missiles, a capability that
is currently beyond the limits of FMS/FMF. The Office of
Military Cooperation is working to obtain funding for the
Bilateral Air Defense Initiative (BADI),which will provide
theater ballistic missile early warning and will integrate
with the HAWK A system that the Bahrainis have already
procured. An interagency delegation will visit Bahrain
October 18 and 19 to discuss next steps in the Gulf Security
Dialogue. The U.S.-organized Proliferation Security
Initiative Leading Edge exercise will take place in Bahrain
at the end of October. The boarding and interrogation
portion of the exercise will take place in Bahraini
territorial waters.


3. (C) Bahrain's relationship with Iran is complex. The
Bahraini leadership is united in its suspicion of Iranian
intentions regarding Bahrain and often sees an Iranian hand
in incidents involving Bahrain's Shia community, which
comprises some 70 percent of the country's citizens. They
are convinced Iran seeks to develop nuclear weapons and
assert its influence around the region. At the same time,
Bahrain faces the reality that it must live with its large
neighbor across the Gulf. Bahrain maintains "correct" but
not warm diplomatic relations with Iran, with Bahraini
leaders welcoming Iranian officials when they visit. The
economic relationship is based on Bahraini imports of Iranian
fruit and other foodstuffs and some Iranian investment in
Bahrain. It is not clear that the Bahraini leadership has
come to grips with how it will handle efforts to ratchet up
the pressure on Iran if that includes, for example, calls for
cutbacks in trade and engagement.

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Next Steps on Iraq
--------------


4. (C) The GOB publicly supports U.S. operations in Iraq,
but as Crown Prince Salman told VADM Nichols October 4, it
believes Iraqi forces should be moving to the front lines in
place of coalition forces. The CP commented that Iraqis have
become lazy because international forces are protecting them.
You could brief your interlocutors on the state of
operations in Iraq and urge them to continue their public
support of the Iraqi government. The GOB's greatest concern
related to Iraq is that sectarian tensions and violence could

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spill over into Bahrain. Bahraini officials will support
measures to reduce sectarian violence while recognizing that
the situation in Iraq is extremely difficult.

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Participation in CTF-150
--------------


5. (C) The King and CP have affirmed their interest in the
Bahraini Navy participating in coalition operations in the
region, in particular in Combined Task Force (CTF) 150, which
patrols the Arabian Sea. VADM Walsh told the CP October 4
that Navcent and the Bahraini Navy are engaged in a
constructive conversation about Bahrain's participation.
VADM Nichols noted that Bahrain could participate in many
ways, including information exchange, placement of liaison
officers, or commitment of ships and other resources.

--------------
Counter-Terrorism Law
--------------


6. (S) A counter-terrorism bill entitled "Protecting Society
from Terrorists Acts" entered into force in August. The law
defines the types of acts considered to be terrorism, applies
tough penalties, and criminalizes conspiracy to commit
terrorist acts. There is some question about whether the
conspiracy clause will hold up given the constitutional
court's June decision that a similar article in the penal
code was unconstitutional. In a first test of the law, the
prosecutor general in late September released eight Bahrainis
on bond following an investigation into possible terrorist
activities. Although several members of the cell admitted to
planning to travel to Afghanistan for "jihad," the prosecutor
general decided he did not have enough evidence to charge
them under the CT law.

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Elections Announced for November 25
--------------


7. (C) The King announced September 28 that the first round
of parliamentary and municipal elections will be held on
November 25 and the second round one week later on December

2. All of the formerly boycotting political societies have
registered with the government and announced their
participation in the elections. The new parliament will
include a much broader cross-section of Bahraini political
opinion, enhancing its credibility. A recently leaked report
drafted by a former advisor to a minister and senior member
of the ruling family alleges that the minister had organized
a secret team and disbursed over $2.5 million in an attempt
to sway election results. The resulting uproar has roiled
the political scene with many politicians and societies
demanding an investigation and removal of those involved in
the conspiracy. Possibly in response to the outcry, the King
announced that e-voting would not be used in the elections, a
key demand of activists and oppositionists, and could result
in truly independent election monitors being allowed to
deploy.


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MONROE