MOVING CLOSER TO MANPADS DESTRUCTION?

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000964

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN, PM/WRA, USSOUTHCOM FOR COMMANDER CRADDOCK
AND POLAD MOORE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PARM KDEM SOCI
SUBJECT: MOVING CLOSER TO MANPADS DESTRUCTION?

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Conversations with representatives of the
different political parties represented in Nicaragua's
National Assembly reveal a claimed willingness from all sides
to approve the destruction of another 651 MANPADS (leaving
Nicaragua with an official stock of 400 MANPADS). Nicaraguan
Liberal Alliance (ALN-PC) and Liberal Constitutional Party
(PLC) deputies told Southcom commander General Craddock that
both parties are in favor of MANPADS destruction. Sandinista
Front (FSLN) representatives reported that the FSLN may
follow the Nicaraguan Army's recommendation to destroy more
MANPADS in exchange for a political gesture or military
equipment from the USG. Nicaraguan Minister of Defense Avil
Ramirez confirmed that the Army is ready to act as soon as
the Assembly approves the destruction. The visit of General
Craddock and the continued pressure of Emboffs on all GON
institutions have again brought the MANPADS issue to the fore
and possibly pushed the National Assembly closer to action.
END SUMMARY.

GENERAL CRADDOCK URGES DEPUTIES TO APPROVE MANPADS DESTRUCTION
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2. (C) Southcom commander General Bantz Craddock, POLAD, and
Ambassador met with representatives from the Nicaraguan
National Assembly's Defense and Government Commission on
April 21 to discuss defense and security issues. General
Craddock urged the deputies to take the lead in approving the
destruction of the next tranche of 651 MANPADS, as
recommended by the Nicaraguan Army. He explained that states
must restructure their security forces to face new
transnational threats in the form of terrorists and
traffickers of arms, drugs, and people. General Craddock
pointed out that MANPADS are not useful in this new struggle,
except as a weapon for terrorists, and are expensive to guard
and maintain. He stated that the USG is ready to help
Nicaragua with defense and security, but that the MANPADS
form an obstacle to an enhanced relationship.


3. (C) The deputies, representing the ALN-PC, PLC and FSLN
caucuses, essentially repeated their parties' established
positions. Augusto Valle of the ALN-PC caucus agreed that
the missiles are dangerous and can be used against civil
targets, and pledged that the ALN-PC is fully in favor of
destroying all of the MANPADS. He explained, however, that
his party only controls 10% of the votes in the National
Assembly, and that the Assembly's executive board (Junta
Directiva) must act on two bills previously submitted by the
Defense Commission - one bill approves the destruction of 651
MANPADS; the other changes the small arms law to allow the
approval with a simple majority, rather than a qualified
(two-thirds) majority vote.


4. (C) Sandinista deputy Elias Chevez responded that the
FSLN has not opposed MANPADS destruction as an anti-U.S.
measure, but because at least some of them are needed for
national defense. Chevez agreed that transnational threats
are a problem, but stated that Nicaragua has border disputes
with Colombia, Honduras, El Salvador, and Costa Rica. He
described the situation as a "match" that could "ignite at
any moment." Chevez argued that they have not seen any
reciprocity from other Central American countries in terms of
arms reduction - in fact the opposite has occurred. He added
that the Army maintains very secure storage facilities.
Chevez concluded that MANPADS destruction is
not a "closed issue," and the FSLN respects the opinion of
the Army that 651 could be eliminated without compromising
national defense. He also implied that the FSLN may vote
favorably if the USG offers the Army a "better deal" for the
missiles.


5. (C) Chevez' fellow Sandinista, Jose Antonio Martinez,
seconded Chevez' remarks and mentioned Honduras' increase in
armed forces personnel and Nicaragua's conflict with Costa
Rica over the Rio San Juan. Martinez argued that the Army is
making do with obsolete Soviet-era equipment and requires the
MANPADS to maintain the balance of power. He also indicated
that we might reach an agreement over the MANPADS if the USG
were to donate modern equipment to the Nicaraguan Army, "to
fight drug traffickers, for instance." General Craddock
responded that approval of destruction for the 651 MANPADS
would be a positive first step and could lead to increased
bilateral cooperation. Ambassador Trivelli also noted that
General Craddock was about to attend a ceremony to donate a
set of Zodiak boats to the Nicaraguan Navy.


6. (C) PLC deputy Roberto Sanchez implied that the cause of
Nicaragua's most pressing security issues -- arms and drugs
trafficking -- became serious during the Sandinista regime
during the 1980s. He claimed that the policy of the PLC, as
a "democratic party," is to try and resolve conflicts without
the use of force. Sanchez stated that the PLC supports the
destruction of the MANPADS and the initiative to change the
small arms law.

MINISTER OF DEFENSE SUPPORTS MANPADS DESTRUCTION
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7. (C) Before meeting with the National Assembly deputies,
General Craddock discussed defense and security issues with
Nicaraguan Minister of Defense Avil Ramirez. Ramirez was the
first to broach the topic of the MANPADS, claiming that the
GON is ready to "finish the action." He mentioned the
General's meeting with the deputies and offered to repeat the
Army's and Ministry's assessment that they should destroy
another 651 MANPADS. Ramirez noted that "public opinion" is
against elimination of MANPADS stocks given Nicaragua's
border disputes and assured the General that Nicaragua's
MANPADS are "safe and secure."


8. (C) General Craddock responded that the MANPADS are
obsolete in terms of national defense and represent a danger
to Nicaragua and the world. He urged Ramirez to explain to
the Nicaraguan public that the armed forces need to
restructure their capabilities to face the transnational
threats of the 21st Century.

SANTOS: "WE NEED A GESTURE"
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9. (C) Polcouns and poloff met with FSLN foreign affairs
officer Samuel Santos the evening of April 21 to discuss
MANPADS and other topics. Santos concurred with his
colleagues on the Defense Commission that the FSLN is willing
to abide by the Army's recommendation and destroy another 651
MANPADS. He stated that the FSLN would have to take into
account the political optics of the vote and
would expect a "gesture" on the part of the USG in exchange
for approving the destruction. (Comment: In an earlier
conversation with polcouns, Santos indicated that such a
gesture could entail a positive statement from the USG
regarding the FSLN action. End Comment.)

COMMENT: WE'VE HEARD IT ALL BEFORE
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10. (C) Several PLC representatives, including ex-president
of the Defense Commission Fernando Avellan, have claimed that
the PLC supports the destruction of the MANPADS. In 2005,
the PLC argued that the Sandinistas were holding the MANPADS
votes hostage using bureaucratic procedures through their
control of the Junta Directiva presidency. In 2006, however,
the PLC has failed to act on its promises, even though the
Junta has a friendly president and a Liberal majority. The
PLC continues to vacillate between unqualified support for
MANPADS destruction and insisting that the USG not oppose an
amnesty vote for convicted PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman in
exchange for the approval. Whatever the PLC's true
intentions, both bills remain dormant in the Junta Directiva.
As they did in voting to pass CAFTA implementation, the
Sandinistas might be willing to support the destruction of
the 651 MANAPADS. However, they are unlikely to support the
destruction of the remaining 400.


11. (C) General Craddock and POLAD Moore cleared on this
cable.
TRIVELLI