NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS REGIONAL REPORTING: MATAGALPA

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000835

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: ELECTIONS REPORTING
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS REGIONAL REPORTING: MATAGALPA


Classified By: PAUL A. TRIVELLI. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On March 30, Property Officer and LES
Lawyer visited Matagalpa, capital of the northeastern
Nicaraguan Department of Matagalpa, to discuss upcoming
national elections with local business, political and civil
society leaders and to gauge their views on the prospect of
free and fair elections in November. Respondents predicted
that the pace of voter registration irregularities will
escalate in the months to come. END SUMMARY.

2, (SBU) Interviewees: Diana Urbina of the Liberal
Constitutionalist Party (PLC); Norman Le Clair of the Friends
of Alvarado Movement (AA); Carlos Javier Mejia of the
American Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM) and Esperanza Coffee
Group; Mercedes Fley of the Ethics and Transparency group
(ET); Jose Gonzalez Picado of the Herty 2006 Movement
(HERTY); and Luis Fonseca and Enrique Matamoros of the
Liberal Nicaraguan Alliance/Conservative Party (ALN/PC).

ELECTORAL COUNCILS SELECTIVE IN ISSUING CEDULAS
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3. (SBU) According to our interlocutors, delays and
glitches in obtaining national IDs (cedulas) required for
voter registration plague non-Sandinista Matagalpinos trying
to register to vote. At the same time, stories abound of
"expedited" "one-stop shopping" service for known or
prospective pro-Sandinista sympathizers in Matagalpa. While
the legal voting age is 16, contacts claimed that underage
and/or disaffected teenagers are being cynically manipulated
by FSLN militants via falsified birth certificates and dreams
of future patronage. (Comment: Similar changes were common
in the Atlantic Coast prior to the March 5 elections,
however, little hard evidence was uncovered by electoral
missions. End comment.)


4. (SBU) Interviewees were unified in their disrespect for
Matagalpa representatives in the National Assembly,
regardless of party affiliation. They accused the deputies
of virtually abandoning local constituents after election to
office in order to bask in the relative luxury of the
capital. Meanwhile, schools, clinics and the huge potholes
on the bumpy road to Matagalpa fall into greater disrepair,
and children scrape dirt off roadsides to fill potholes
instead of begging outright.

PLC SUPPORT FOR QUINONEZ OR RIZO?
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5. (SBU) The local PLC party president and current National
Assembly deputy hopeful, Diana Urbina, stated that
presidential pre-candidates Quinonez and Rizo were the
front-runners in the race for her party's upcoming selection,
but that Rizo is "soft" and "susceptible to arm-twisting by
ex-President Aleman". Assessing coffee planter and cattle
owner preferences, she indicated Quinonez as the department
favorite because of his experience, loyalty to the region,
and anti-FSLN stance during the Sandinista regime.
(Comment: In fact, Rizo came out well ahead of Quinonez,
with 30 votes versus 16 in the PLC Department Convention
process. End comment.) A defaced poster of President
Bolanos, contrasted with untouched photos lauding
ex-Presidents Anastasio Somoza, Arnoldo Aleman and other
party regulars, was prominently featured in the PLC office.

AMBASSADORIAL STATEMENTS
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6. (SBU) When queried about Matagalpinos' impressions of the
U.S. Embassy and the statements of Ambassador Trivelli, Ms.
Urbina considered the Ambassador's observations acceptable,
but not the tone. Specifically, she objected to the word
"delinquent" when used to characterize ex-President Aleman,
noting that Aleman's "El Chile" residence is practically a
pilgrimage site. President of the Amigos de Alvarado (AA)
organization, Norman Le Clair, viewed the Ambassador's
statements as sincere, on target and preferable to usual
diplomatic platitudes. The Montealegre and Herty camps
expressed positive feelings toward United States and the
Ambassador.

TECHNOCRATS, BANKERS, POPULISTS
--------------


7. (SBU) Regarding Nicaraguan political actors, interviewees
viewed President Bolanos as a respected futurist or
technocrat with laudable intentions, but faulted his scant
populist skills. Liberal candidate Eduardo Montealegre was
taken very seriously by our interlocutors, despite some
concern regarding his financial sector ties. Since many
Matagalpa coffee producers suffered property foreclosures in
the past, they are wary of the banking industry in general.
Sandinista candidate Herty Lewites is considered an
improvement over FSLN leader Daniel Ortega, but not a serious
frontrunner for the presidency.


8. (SBU) The last two mayors of the city of Matagalpa have
been Sandinistas and the FSLN is considered well positioned
to influence November elections. Fearing yet another FSLN
victory, our interlocutors warned that the Supreme Electoral
Council (CSE) was poised to overlook fraudulent registration
and other irregular voting shenanigans that could lead to a
new caudillo administration unless opposition is galvanized
more effectively. The Vamos Con Eduardo (Montealegre
supporters) (VCE) group is particularly apprehensive that
skittish voters will hold their noses and vote for the PLC,
rather than risk an Ortega victory.


MONTEALEGRE-LEWITES: A DREAM TEAM?
--------------


9. (SBU) Herty Lewites campaign manager Jose Gonzalez
suggested a dream team consisting of Montealegre for
president with Herty as vice president. (Comment: We've
heard this match before, as well as the comment that it's an
unrealistic and unnatural alliance, especially for rural
voters to accept. End comment.) Gonzalez firmly dismissed
the notion that Herty could be a stalking horse for Daniel
Ortega, as alleged by Liberal contacts.

COMMENT:
--------------


10. (SBU) There is palpable fear among Matagalpa's voters
that the country's fragile democracy is at risk and that
reprisals are always possible. Although frontrunners,
candidates Lewites and Montealegre must convince voters that
they have built party machines sufficient to defend their
positions against the predatory and fraudulent tactics of the
traditional parties. Our Matagalpino interlocutors reason
that if illegal issuance of voter identification cards has
been impossible to halt until now, what irregularities will
the Supreme Electoral Council not condemn next? Non-FSLN
parties have no trouble spinning nightmare scenarios of a
political juggernaut strong-arming its way to victory in
November and will continue to seek U.S. encouragement, if not
our outright seal of approval, of their respective candidates.

TRIVELLI