Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MANAGUA745
2006-04-04 22:48:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Managua
Cable title:  

ALLQ,S WELL THAT ENDS WELL, ASSERTS AGUIRRE SACASA

Tags:  KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL 
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VZCZCXYZ0013
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #0745/01 0942248
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 042248Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5825
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0611
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000745 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2016
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: ALLQ,S WELL THAT ENDS WELL, ASSERTS AGUIRRE SACASA

REF: A. MANAGUA 0738

B. MANAGUA 0709

C. MANAGUA 0720

D. 2005 MANAGUA 3025

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000745

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2016
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: ALLQ,S WELL THAT ENDS WELL, ASSERTS AGUIRRE SACASA

REF: A. MANAGUA 0738

B. MANAGUA 0709

C. MANAGUA 0720

D. 2005 MANAGUA 3025

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Summary: Francisco Aguirre Sacasa, until recently a
presidential-hopeful for the Liberal Constitutional Party
(PLC),is disappointed with PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman's
decision to influence the outcome of the PLC's selection of
its presidential candidate. He believes that Aleman's hold
on conventioneers enabled Jose Rizo to garner three times the
votes he merited, enabling Rizo to avoid a runoff vote.
Aguirre Sacasa asserted that, in an unencumbered primary, he
would have been the candidate facing Rizo or Enrique Quinonez
in a runoff. To Aguirre Sacasa, the overriding objective now
is to beat Ortega and the Sandinistas, who are 'loaded for
bear and will do whatever it takes to win.' He appears
willing to encourage the PLC to accept primaries that include
departmental deputies as the price for uniting the
anti-Sandinista forces. His assessment that Aleman will
likely reject the primary proposal is probably on mark. The
question is how Rizo will respond to the offer. End Summary.

The Finger
- - - - - -


2. (C) Francisco Aguirre Sacasa, former Nicaraguan
Ambassador to the United States, and until recently a
presidential-hopeful for the PLC, related to polcouns on
April 3 his disappointment with PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman's
decision to influence the outcome of the PLC's March 31
departmental and April 2 national conventions to select its
presidential candidate (Ref A). Aguirre Sacasa opined that
convention winner Jose Rizo garnered three times the votes he
merited because of Aleman's "instructions" ("dedazo," or
finger) to party conventioneers to vote for Rizo. If the
convention had been unencumbered, Aguirre Sacasa believes no
candidate would have won on the first round (requiring 51% of
the votes),and that he and Rizo, or possibly Enrique
Quinonez, would have competed in the runoff.


3. (C) Aleman's last-minute addition of 200 conventioneers

to his liking clearly stacked the decks in his candidate
Rizo's favor, argued Aguirre Sacasa, lamenting that he had no
time to lobby these newly branded conventioneers. He related
that Aleman opposed Quinonez' candidacy and decided that Rizo
was a safer, more palatable candidate. Polcouns offered that
perhaps Daniel Ortega was the "hand" behind Aleman's finger
and had instructed Aleman that Rizo, not Quinonez, is an
acceptable candidate.


4. (C) Nonetheless, Aguirre Sacasa has resigned himself to
the situation, opining that Rizo would make a "decent"
president and sharing that Aleman has offered him the vice
presidency. He claimed that rival presidential candidates
Eduardo Montealegre (ALN-PC) and Daniel Ortega (FSLN) have
approached him with the same offer. Of course, he would
never consider an alliance with Ortega, but he esteems
Montealegre.


5. (C) To Aguirre Sacasa, the overriding objective at this
point is to beat Ortega. "Like the famous Shakespearean
play, 'all's well that ends well.' If the Liberals unite we
will win; if we are divided, Ortega will win," he warned,
predicting that Ortega would receive 42% of the votes, Rizo
32%, and others (Montealegre and Lewites) 26%. Aguirre
Sacasa disparaged the accuracy of the polls, which currently
show Montealegre and Lewites in the lead, although he
admitted that Rizo enjoys little popular support and
acknowledged that Montealegre enjoys much more support than
Rizo, at least for now.

LOADED FOR BEAR
- - - - - - - - -


6. (C) According to Aguirre Sacasa, this time around Daniel
Ortega and the Sandinistas are determined to win the
election. "They are loaded for bear and will do whatever it
takes to win. A divided Liberalism plays into their hands,"
warned Aguirre Sacasa. He ventured that Herty will draw more
votes from the Liberals than Ortega and could eventually
withdraw from the race. Polcouns replied that the polls
suggest Lewites could attract some 15% of FSLN votes, a
sizeable sum, and perhaps more because many poll respondents
hesitate to indicate their choice out of fear of a FSLN
reprisal.

LAST CALL FOR PRIMARIES
- - - - - - - - - - - -


7. (C) Aguirre Sacasa mentioned that everyone is eager to
hear the U.S. Ambassador's proposal for primaries. He
believes that the PLC will be willing to enter into
inter-party primaries, if it only encompasses presidential
candidates. Indeed, in January the PLC had offered
inter-party primaries, but Montealegre rejected them and the
Embassy did not support them. Polcouns remarked that Jose
Antonio Alvarado had submitted a counter offer, close to what
the IRI proposed months ago, but that to our knowledge, the
PLC had never responded to Alvarado's offer. Further,
polcouns explained that the USG will never support a primary
under Aleman's hegemony; his rigging of the PLC primaries is
evidence that he cannot be trusted. Aguirre Sacasa, who took
credit for proposing the inter-party primaries, explained
that once he started campaigning, he left the task to others,
adding that he was unaware that the PLC had never replied to
Alvarado's initiative.


8. (C) Polcouns remarked that the Embassy initiative
includes departmental deputies and entails creating an
inter-party working group independent from Aleman to
coordinate the primaries. Aguirre Sacasa remarked that he
personally favors the inclusion of departmental deputies, but
he doubts the PLC will accept primaries for departmental
deputies because Aleman wishes to control their selection.
Polcouns replied that if Rizo is determined to distance
himself from Aleman, as Rizo has asserted to us, supporting
primaries for departmental deputies might be a worthy litmus
test of his commitment and independence.

COMMENT
- - - -


9. (C) Aguirre Sacasa still feels the burn from Aleman's
machinations. He appears willing to encourage the PLC to
accept broader primaries, but he may not get far. His
assessment that Aleman will likely reject them to maintain
control of the deputy selection process is probably on mark.
The question is how Rizo will do respond to the offer. Rizo
may find an excuse to refuse the inter-party primaries.
Alluding to Eduardo Montealegre, Rizo informed Ambassador on
April 4 that he would accept the offer only if the other
presidential aspirants are selected via their own internal
primaries.
TRIVELLI