TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT: USING PRIMARIES TO DEFINE

UNCLAS MANAGUA 000709

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EAID KDEM NU
SUBJECT: TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT: USING PRIMARIES TO DEFINE
LIBERAL INTENTIONS

REF: A. MANAGUA 0674


B. MANAGUA 0666

C. MANAGUA 0008


1. (SBU) For the past year, Nicaragua's Liberal factions have
toyed with the idea of holding internal and/or multi-party
primaries to select their presidential and National Assembly
deputy candidates. Faction leaders generally agree that
multi-party primaries are the most feasible and democratic
way to unite the "democratic forces" -- a goal they all
profess to want. Nevertheless, attempts to craft a primary
proposal acceptable to all factions have been received
without great enthusiasm -- especially on the part of the
PLC, which has heretofore refused to include deputy
candidates. The Liberals and other anti-Sandinista parties
have come to us directly, or through IRI, to request
assistance with primaries. Our response has been clear: we
are willing provide assistance, but only within certain
parameters.


2. (SBU) Our current proposal for multi-party primaries,
which we plan to transmit to party leaders immediately after
the April 2 PLC convention, is a synthesis of various plans
issued by the Liberal factions and includes the fundamental
conditions to promote a democratic process and minimize the
influence of Arnoldo Aleman. The civil society group
Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) would, with technical
assistance and a grant of up to $500,000 from IRI, implement
the proposal under the following conditions:

- All participating parties and alliances will agree in
advance to the selection, via primaries, of a joint
presidential candidate and a joint slate of departmental
deputy candidates.

- Each party or alliance will appoint two representatives to
serve on a primary oversight committee, which will make
decisions by consensus. Meetings will be held in a neutral
location. Experts, contracted to organize the process, will
provide technical assistance.

- The deadline to accept the proposal is April 17. Keeping
in mind the Electoral Calendar, the oversight committee will
decide on which date to hold the primaries.

- Domestic and international observers will be invited to
monitor and observe the primary process.


3. (SBU) Comment: The democratic contenders have failed thus
far to agree on a joint proposal because none wishes to
expend time and effort in holding primaries, and party
leaders would rather grant deputy candidacies to powerful
supporters than open the positions to competition. However,
most do want to achieve the unification of the anti-FSLN
forces and have pleaded with Emboffs time and again to help
them achieve this goal. The pressures of the Electoral
Calendar (Ref B) demand a final decision and action (or not)
on primaries -- hence the ultimatum and deadline. Time is
running out.


4. (SBU) Comment continued: The probability of PLC acceptance
of the proposal is low -- Aleman's control of the party would
be severely undermined if he could no longer name the
departmental deputy candidates. Jose Rizo, the front-runner
for the PLC nomination has, however, supported primaries in
past statements. Offering primaries to Rizo may pressure him
to define himself to the public, who we will then know if he
is truly independent from Aleman, or merely his puppet. If
the PLC's national leaders refuse the democratic path to
unity offered by the proposal in deference to Aleman, Eduardo
Montealegre and other dissidents may gain considerable
leverage to pressure local PLC leaders and supporters to
finally abandon the party.
TRIVELLI