NICARAGUA ATLANTIC COAST ELECTIONS: PLC SUPREME IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000556

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SNAR SOCI NU
SUBJECT: NICARAGUA ATLANTIC COAST ELECTIONS: PLC SUPREME IN
RAAS, YATAMA KINGMAKER IN RAAN

REF: A. MANAGUA 0511


B. 05 MANAGUA 2998

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: Preliminary results for the allocation of
seats on the Councils of the South Atlantic Autonomous Region
(RAAS) and North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN) indicate
that the PLC will win enough positions to control the RAAS
without having to form an alliance with another party. In
the RAAN, however, none of the parties will gain an outright
majority. FSLN officials claim they will control the RAAN
Council with regional indigenous party Yatama, although the
PLC has announced its intention to court Yatama as well.
Disturbingly, Vice Foreign Minister Javier Williams Slate
told the DCM that FSLN leader Daniel Ortega made a deal to
assist narcotraffickers on the Atlantic Coast if they would
help the FSLN win the elections. End Summary.

VOTE ALLOCATION SYSTEM FAVORS FSLN AND YATAMA
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2. (U) As reported in reftel A, the multi-member district
proportional representation system allocated a
disproportionate number of seats to the FSLN and Yatama than
the overall popular vote would indicate. The following chart
shows the final vote count and the distribution of Council
seats by party.

North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN):

PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE COUNCIL SEATS

PLC 23,783 37.4% 16
FSLN 19,212 30.2% 17
Yatama 12,330 19.2% 12
ALN-PC 3,414 5.4% 0
MRS 1,441 2.3% 0
PAMUC 1.316 2.1% 0
APRE 1,268 2.0% 0
CCN 830 1.3% 0

South Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAS):

PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE COUNCIL SEATS

PLC 17,577 47.8% 22
FSLN 7,690 20.9% 11
ALN-PC 5,643 15.4% 6
Yatama 3,561 9.7% 6
MRS 1,373 3.7% 0
CCN 685 1.9% 0
APRE 229 0.6% 0
PAMUC N/A N/A N/A

Although a few "impugnaciones" (official challenges from
party poll watchers) remain outstanding, the CSE reported
that they would not affect the final results. CSE president
Roberto Rivas announced that the Council would proclaim the
winning candidates on March 14.

PLC AND FSLN WILL FIGHT FOR YATAMA VOTES IN THE RAAN
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3. (U) The PLC won enough seats in the RAAS to control the
Regional Council without needing to form an alliance with the
ALN-PC. The FSLN proclaimed that they would lead the Council
in the RAAN in alliance with Yatama, an indigenous party that
promotes autonomy. Diogenes Solorzano, the legal
representative for Yatama, confirmed that his party signed an
&alliance of governability8 with the FSLN that promises the
governorship to Yatama. PLC representatives indicated,
however, that their party would also court Yatama in an
attempt to control the RAAN Regional Council by also offering
the RAAN governorship and possibly some positions in the RAAS.

ORTEGA MAKES DEAL WITH NARCOTRAFFICKERS
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4. (C) On March 10, Vice Foreign Minister and RAAN native
Javier Williams Slate informed DCM that FSLN leader Daniel
Ortega made a deal with local narcotraffickers, which would
allow the traffickers free reign in the region in exchange
for political and financial support. According to Williams,
a Regional Council member by the name of Dereta brokered an
agreement whereby Ortega would use the FSLN's influence in

the court system to free a couple of traffickers from jail.
One is Jorge Webster Rojas (arrested on Corn Island last
year) and the other is Marvin Funez (arrested in Sandy Bay).


5. (C) Williams spent most of election week at his family's
house in Puerto Cabezas, where he witnessed the alliance in
action. From his house on the beach, he could see the
traffickers using their new SUVs and pickup trucks to
transport FSLN voters and election workers around town.
(Comment: This is not the first time we have heard reports of
FSLN/narco cooperation -- see reftel B. End Comment.)

COMMENT: REST OF COUNTRY WILL "FORGET ATLANTIC COAST
ELECTIONS IN TWO MONTHS"
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6. (C) Normally a forgotten stepchild, the Atlantic Coast has
received intense national attention for the last several
weeks as all parties have sought to position themselves for
the November national elections. The PLC, FSLN, Yatama, and
the ALN-PC have all spun the results positively, leaving only
Herty Lewites (MRS candidate) to admit that the outcome was
not what he had hoped for. Liberal candidate Jose Antonio
Alvarado, although he spent relatively little time and energy
on the Coast, appeared to lose some steam as the party he is
most closely associated with (APRE) performed very poorly.
But do the Atlantic Coast elections really presage November
results? Most Nicaraguans agree that the Atlantic Coast --
given its isolation, ideological slant, small population, and
ethnic differences -- is unique, and therefore, the choices
of its population cannot be accurately extrapolated on a
national level. One high-level contact in the Presidency
told poloff that, despite the current hype, Nicaraguans will
"forget the Atlantic Coast elections in two months."
TRIVELLI