Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MANAGUA464
2006-03-02 17:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Managua
Cable title:  

A RUSE -- OR DO GENUINE CONCERNS DRIVE PLC'S CALL

Tags:  KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL KCOR 
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VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #0464/01 0611718
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 021718Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5441
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0558
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000464 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2016
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL KCOR
SUBJECT: A RUSE -- OR DO GENUINE CONCERNS DRIVE PLC'S CALL
FOR CSE RESIGNATIONS?

REF: A. MANAGUA 0430

B. MANAGUA 0304

C. 2005 MANAGUA 03118

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000464

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2016
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL KCOR
SUBJECT: A RUSE -- OR DO GENUINE CONCERNS DRIVE PLC'S CALL
FOR CSE RESIGNATIONS?

REF: A. MANAGUA 0430

B. MANAGUA 0304

C. 2005 MANAGUA 03118

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Many Nicaraguan political and civil society leaders
are calling for the resignation of all Supreme Electoral
Commission (CSE) magistrates. Asserting that the CSE's
substantial irregularities and clear domination by Daniel
Ortega's Sandinista (FSLN) party will cause the March 5
Atlantic Coast election to be flawed, these leaders argue
that the resignation of the CSE board is the only means to
ensure a clean, fair, credible, and inclusive national
election in November. Visibly absent from this clamor is
Liberal dissident Eduardo Montealegre, who suspects that the
Liberal Constitutional Party's (PLC) call for the
resignations may be PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman's ploy to
regain political leverage. The Nicaraguan government (GON)
shares Montealegre's assessment, believing that in all
likelihood a new CSE board would be as partisan and
unprofessional as the current one; rather, the pressure
should be directed at the current board to do its job. The
appointment of new CSE magistrates would require a vote by
2/3 of the National Assembly deputies. Both PLC and
Sandinista votes would be needed for such a vote, a process
that could reinforce the Ortega-Aleman pact, and perhaps lead
to Aleman's amnesty. End Summary.


2. (U) Many political and civil society leaders are calling
for the resignation of all CSE magistrates. Asserting that
the CSE's substantial irregularities and clear domination by
Daniel Ortega's Sandinista (FSLN) party will cause the March
5 Atlantic Coast election to be flawed and fraud ridden,
these leaders argue that the resignation of the magistrates
is the only means to ensure a clean, fair, credible, and
inclusive national election in November. Right-of-center
daily La Prensa called for the CSE leadership to step down in
its February 28 edition.


3. (U) The PLC has been especially vocal on the subject,

even though three of the seven magistrates are PLC militants.
PLC-affiliated CSE magistrate Rene Herrera (Ref. B) called
over the February 25-26 weekend for the resignation of all
CSE magistrates and their substitutes, to be effective
following the March 5 Atlantic Coast elections. He suggested
that the only solution to the CSE crisis might be a state of
emergency dissolving the CSE board. Tongue in cheek, Herrera
recommended that, to save the expense of a costly November
election, the CSE could appoint Daniel Ortega president and
Eduardo Montealegre vice president. On February 25, PLC
spokesman Leonel Teller echoed Herrera's sentiments, adding
that the new magistrates should be selected via the National
Dialogue mechanism established in October 2005 as part of the
Framework Law (Ley Marco) to restore governability.


4. (C) Comment: Driving the PLC's outrage over the CSE's
current state of play is the fact that the party no longer
enjoys the upper hand in the electoral body. The PLC is
particularly capable of "crying foul" because in the past, it
employed many of the same tactics to consolidate its
political position. Former PLC member Eduardo Urcuyo
recently shared with us that the PLC used to back date birth
certificates of young Nicaraguans so they could vote for the
PLC, a practice they now accuse the Sandinistas of doing. An
unabashed Urcuyo explained that "we did this for the sake of
democracy." End Comment.


5. (U) Other political parties have joined the clamor for a
complete makeover in CSE leadership, including Camino
Cristiano National Assembly substitute deputy Oscar Carrion.
FSLN dissident Herty Lewites has also called for the CSE
magistrates to resign and stated publicly that he and his
supporters will join a March 2 civil society protest calling
for the magistrates to step down. While the Alianza por la
Republica (APRE) has not yet reached an official position on
the matter, on February 28, APRE president Miguel Lopez
Baldizon shared his personal view with polcouns that ideally
all the magistrates should resign, but they will not. He
added the caveat that a mass resignation could place the
electoral process in limbo and aggravate the crisis because
the Assembly could take months to decide on replacements.
While the ALN-PC has so far been reserved in its position,
ALN-PC deputy Alfonso Ortega Urbina also hinted to the press
that he would not oppose the measure if it served to improve
the situation in Nicaragua.



6. (U) A number of civil society groups are also calling for
the CSE magistrates to step down. On February 23, Movimiento
por Nicaragua (MpN) member/former CSE magistrate, Rosa Maria
Zelaya opined that the CSE magistrates must resign if they
are incapable of organizing elections. On February 24, Etica
y Transparencia (ET) director Roberto Courtney appealed to
CSE magistrates to resign their posts following the March 5
Atlantic Coast election because the CSE leadership has have
lost all credibility. A coalition comprising the Red por
Nicaragua (NGO umbrella),COSEP, and Movimiento de Mujeres
joined the chorus, with Red por Nicaragua and the MpN,
announcing they will demonstrate in front of the CSE on March

2.


7. (C) Although visibly absent from the clamor so far,
Liberal dissident/ALN-PC presidential candidate Eduardo
Montealegre -- who suspects that the PLC's call for all
magistrates to resign may be part of PLC leader Arnoldo
Aleman's ruse to restore some of his political leverage --
told DCM March 1 that he and his group favor continued
pressure on the CSE, even though he doubted that any
magistrates would in fact resign. The resignation of the
magistrates would prompt a vote by 2/3 (56 votes) of the
National Assembly deputies to replace them, which would
require both PLC and Sandinista votes to accomplish and could
lead to a bolstering of the Ortega-Aleman pact, perhaps
according Aleman the opportunity to swap more seats for the
FSLN on the CSE for his amnesty.


8. (C) ALN-PC legal adviser Eliseo Nunez alleged to the
media on February 28 that to establish the CSE's required
quorum, PLC magistrates resorted in 2001 to the same trick of
appointing their own substitutes to fill in for recalcitrant
Sandinista magistrates boycotting the sessions. Referring to
the PLC-led challenge to the Supreme Court ruling in favor of
CSE president Rivas' appointment of Sandinista and
Conservative substitutes to fill in for the absent PLC
magistrates, Nunez asserted that the problem lies in the
politicization of the CSE, not in the interpretation of an
article (Ref. A) of the Electoral Law . (Note: Montealegre
and ALN-PC caucus leader Maria Eugenia Sequeira told us March
1 that the ALN-PC will support the new bill, but on the
condition that the PLC magistrates do their jobs.)


9. (C) President Bolanos' senior political adviser Frank
Arana echoed Montealegre's position, telling polcouns on
March 1 that Bolanos is skeptical of the PLC's insistence on
replacing the CSE magistrates and suspects it is a ploy to
renew the Ortega-Aleman pact to help the PLC regain political
leverage vis a vis the Sandinistas to achieve Aleman's
amnesty. Arana voiced concern that civil society demands for
a new CSE board could backfire and divert attention from real
issues. If the magistrates step down, which Arana doubts, a
Sandinista-PLC accord would be required to select the new CSE
board; they would likely select the same sort of conniving,
partisan lot, opined Arana. Instead, civil society should
pressure the current magistrates to do their jobs.


10. (C) Predictably, the CSE's Sandinista magistrates and
pro-Sandinista president Roberto Rivas have refused to
resign, while daring their PLC counterparts to step down.
FSLN Assembly caucus chair Edwin Castro dismissed the attacks
on the CSE, asserting that if nobody protested the CSE in
past national elections, they have no reason to do so now.
He accused the PLC and its allies of creating the scandal
because they are trying to justify their defeat in the
Atlantic Coast election in advance. Sandinista presidential
candidate Daniel Ortega blames the U.S.G.'s "anti-democratic
meddling" for driving the political and civil society
movement calling for the resignation of the CSE board. In a
February 27 communique, Ortega warns that the U.S. and the
Nicaraguan right will fail in their efforts to derail the
March and November elections, asserting the Sandinistas will
emerge as the victors in both contests. (Comment: Ortega's
Left-Right rhetoric rings hollow, especially in light of
Herty Lewites' new-Left,
Sandinista-light candidacy -- and his seeking the
Ambassador's assistance regarding the CSE's recent removal of
a number of his candidates running for the Atlantic Coast
election (while some Herty candidates rejoined Ortega, others
did not). End Comment.)

Chief Civil Servant: "The CSE is a Giant Mess"
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


11. (C) On February 28, CSE head civil servant Rodrigo
Barreto (Ref. C) expressed his exasperation with the CSE
magistrates' antics to poloff, calling the situation a "giant
mess." He agreed in principle with civil society groups
calling on the magistrates to resign, but claimed that the
selection of new magistrates would inevitably be "more of the
same" - political hacks chosen by Aleman and Ortega. Barreto
noted that, legally, the magistrates cannot be forced out or
impeached - not even by reason of insanity. They must
voluntarily resign. Personally, Barreto is growing
increasingly frustrated and would readily resign, along with
several other senior staff, if he could afford to do so.

Comment
- - - -


12. (C) There are justifications for calling for the
resignation of the CSE board, but the GON's and Montealegre's
concerns over this PLC-led initiative are also valid. One
can argue that if all the magistrates were to resign -- for
now highly unlikely -- civil society and political forces
could pressure the Assembly to accept truly non-partisan,
capable replacements who reflect the diversity of Nicaragua's
political landscape. Another possible outcome, however, is
the Ortega-Aleman pact would replace the CSE magistrates
with more of the same, or a long drawn-out impasse would
leave the CSE leaderless for months, endangering the November
election. President Bolanos has publicly stated that he will
scrutinize the Atlantic Coast electoral process and the CSE's
preparations for the November election, and if need be, he
will declare a state of emergency in accordance with his
legal authority to ensure that a fair and transparent
election occurs as scheduled in November. In our view, our
job, and that of the OAS and the rest of the international
community, is to encourage Nicaraguans to advocate for their
rights and pressure the CSE to perform professionally and
without partisan bias.
TRIVELLI