Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MANAGUA399
2006-02-21 17:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Managua
Cable title:  

NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS REGIONAL REPORTING: BOACO

Tags:  KDEM NU PGOV SOCI 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0004
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #0399/01 0521725
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 211725Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5335
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5336
C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000399 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: ELECTIONS REPORTING
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS REGIONAL REPORTING: BOACO

Classified By: Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000399

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: ELECTIONS REPORTING
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS REGIONAL REPORTING: BOACO

Classified By: Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On February 10, Property Officer and LES
Lawyer visited Boaco, the rural capital of the Department of
Boaco, located just to the north and east of Managua, to
discuss upcoming elections with local leaders. While
individuals differed on the merits of presidential and
legislative candidates, all affirmed that democratic
institutions in Nicaragua must be strengthened; that the
bilateral working relationship with the United States is a
historical given to be factored into any political outcome;
and, that CAFTA-DR should be thoughtfully considered in terms
of how it can benefit Boaco. Our respondents favored a new
host of politicians not beholden to past obligations such as
the Arnoldo Aleman-Daniel Ortega pact, but doubt that the
current parties enjoy flexibility to allow an accommodation.
End Summary


2. (SBU) Meetings included Dr. Hugo Barquero, President of
the Boaco Organization of Vamos con Eduardo (MVE); Lic. Noel
Ortega, President of the Association of Cattle Raisers of
Boaco (AGB); Father Jose Moreira, Catholic Church Vicar; Dr.
Roberto Luna, President of the local Liberal Constitutional
Party (PLC); Dr. Armando Incer, President of the Amigos de
Alvarado (AA); Lic. Frank Gutierrez, leader of the Herty
Lewites 2006 group (Herty); and Carlos Gutierrez Lopez of the
Christian Action Party/Accion Cristiana (AC). Sandinista
splinter group interviewees included William Cuadra Lopez and
Freddy Colorado Gonzalez of the Sandinista Rescue Group
(Rescate al Sandinismo); and Noelia Guerrero Acevedo of the
Movimiento Revolucionario Sandinista (MRS). A meeting with
the local Boaco district Supreme Electoral Council (CSE)
director was scheduled, but did not take place.

Economy of Boaco
--------------


3. (U) Boaco's economy relies on cattle, daily products,
basic grains and coffee. Boaco needs roads and outside
investment to grow its economy. Our contacts viewed CAFTA
with interest and would like to be given an early opportunity
to participate. They welcomed contacts and additional
information.

Free and Fair Elections?
--------------


4. (C) When queried whether elections could be free and fair,
respondents expressed concern about the reappearance of
crazy mouse ("raton loco") ruses to hassle Boaco voters via
transportation and bureaucratic snafus. Dr. Barquero of the
MVE stated that Sandinistas successfully used this ploy in
the 2004 Boaco municipal elections resulting in the incumbent
Sandinista mayor's election. He added that non-Sandinistas
face difficulties obtaining identity cards ("cedulas"),
another voter manipulation tactic. Lic. Ortega (AGB)
reiterated the accusation, agreeing that the irregularities
definitely cause Boaco voter roll distortions. Dr. Luna
(PLC) concurred that Sandinistas aim to swell the ranks of
voters by supplying rigged birth certificates to underage
teens who lack civic education. In the 2004 municipal
elections, Dr. Barquero (MVE) asserted that out of 35,000
registered voters, 25,000 were assumed to be Liberal.
Nevertheless, Liberals received only 7,000 votes, compared to
the Sandinistas' approximately 8,000: enough to win the
elections. As a consequence, the FSLN can now quickly
process documents for voters they favor, while they create
obstacles for others.

Leading Candidates
--------------


5. (C) Although our interlocutors underscored the
desirability of their particular candidates, most observed
that Eduardo Montealegre has the best chance of winning votes
in Boaco -- assuming he gets the nod from Aleman-controlled
rural voters. Vicar Moreira stated that sympathy for a
Montealegre candidacy can't ensure a win, but could
effectively siphon off strength from the non-FSLN
competition. On the other hand, Boaco PLC President/Assembly
Deputy Luna generally damned with faint praise candidates
other than former Vice President Jose Rizo amd Congressman
Enrique Quinones, but then acknowledged the importance of a
disciplined and united front to achieve a PLC victory in
November. Campaign visits by Montealegre, Alvarado and
Lewites have generally been described as brief and
underwhelming, unlike the vibrant street action generated by
Aleman in years past -- another indication of how much
credibility and charisma can overcome accusations of fraud
and malfeasance.


6. (C) Despite naming dissident presidential candidate
Eduardo Montealegre as the frontrunner, all of our
interlocutors agreed that no democratic candidate enjoys
enough personal momentum to defeat an FSLN-backed candidate
without joining forces with the PLC through some sort of
arrangement. None of the political parties has the FSLN's
sheer organizational clout, militancy, ideological commitment
and hierarchical obedience.

Polls
--------------


7. (C) Respondents questioned the science and reliability of
polls in Nicaragua, suggesting that results depend on what
answers the pollsters are trying to elicit and how the
questions are spun. While Boaco AA President Armando Incer
supported the polls as relative indicators of what voters are
thinking, cattleman Noel Ortega characterized them as a
potential electoral manipulation technique.

Movement for Nicaragua Marches
--------------


8. (C) Dr. Hugo Barquero, President of Vamos con Eduardo,
related that he had participated in one of the Movimiento por
Nicaragua (MpN) marches and observed effective Boaco busing
coordination. Father Moreira noted that while the movement
initially had strength in Granada and Chinandega, the impetus
hadn't continued. AGB's Noel Ortega claimed the marches
represented Sandinista ideology without the broad bipartisan
support needed for success. AA's Dr. Armando Incer asserted
that march leaders needed more moral authority to generate
stronger support in Boaco.

Aleman's Legacy
--------------


9. (C) Terming Arnoldo Aleman the undisputed authority figure
in Boaco, PLC President Dr. Luna explained the reasons why
the former Nicaraguan President still commands rural voters'
devotion: visible benefits in the form of roads, schools and
clinics. Aleman's campaign posture consisted of genuine and
extraordinarily deft socializing with constituents, a
seemingly photographic memory for inter-generational minutiae
such as the birthday of a child or the interment of a
grandparent, plus indefatigable gladhanding, explained Luna.
By comparison, he said too many politicians are virtually
invisible, self-absorbed and colorless. For example,
according to Vicar Moreira, Aleman successor Bolanos is a
good, but unloved, man whose long-term projects have merit,
yet are too complicated for the average Boacan to comprehend.


Perceptions of the U.S. Embassy and the U.S.
--------------


10. (C) Many people in Boaco have a friend or relative in the
U.S. providing remittances that boost the local economy.
Although the American Dream is alive and well here, visas are
hard to come by; the consular information cards we brought
were eagerly snapped up. Contrasted with the Dream is the
perception that USG officials sometimes overstep the line of
propriety with excessive criticism of Nicaragua, according to
Herty 2006 group leader Gutierrez. (A constitutional law
buff, Gutierrez expressed admiration for James Madison and
welcomed our offer to send Public Diplomacy publications with
the Founding Fathers and democracy U.S. style.) Incer (AA)
professed that while the U.S. has acceptable ideas, the
rhetoric occasionally gets out of hand. He reported that an
Alvarado/Montealegre alliance would position the PLC to form
a more robust electoral presence than the current loose
organization. Ortega (AGB) and Dr. Luna (PLC) quoted the
oft-mentioned notion that Montealegre is directly or
indirectly favored by the U.S. Embassy.

Conclusion
--------------


11. (C) Respondents concurred on some basic premises
concerning Nicaragua's current political landscape: a) the
present leadership of both the Liberal Constitutional Party
and the Sandinista Party required new blood and a measure of
independence from the negative caudillismo of the past; b) a
fragile democracy needs effective election monitoring and an
educated electorate to choose viable alternatives to
internecine violence.
TRIVELLI