CONSERVATIVE PARTY PRESIDENT DELIBERATES ALLIANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002651

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVE PARTY PRESIDENT DELIBERATES ALLIANCE
WITH ALN, ROLE IN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY

REF: MANAGUA 2059

Classified By: Charge d'affaires Peter M. Brennan. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Conservative Party (PC) president Azalia
Aviles Salmeron is determined to maintain her party's
affiliation with Eduardo Montealegre's Nicaraguan Liberal
Alliance (ALN),but not to the detriment of the PC's role in
the National Assembly. According to PC by-laws, Conservative
lawmakers should establish their own caucus in the Assembly,
but Aviles is reluctant to form a separate caucus if doing so
would endanger the future of the ALN-PC alliance. She
believes that if Montealegre is willing to name the caucus
ALN-PC, instead of ALN, and if Conservative lawmakers in the
alliance are given leadership roles, maintaining one caucus
would be more viable. Aviles claims that some of
Montealegre's advisors are misguiding him and he is not
giving leaders of allied parties the respect and political
space they merit. We have encouraged her to raise these
concerns with Montealegre and the presidents of other
ALN-allied parties and will meet with Montealegre within the
next few days to impress upon him the importance of
cultivating and consolidating his alliance. END SUMMARY.

A MATTER OF RESPECT
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2. (C) On December 2, Conservative Party (PC) president
Azalia Aviles Salmeron conveyed to polcouns her growing
frustration over the "negative" influence of certain advisors
of ALN leader/former presidential candidate Eduardo
Montealegre. According to Aviles, Eliseo Nunez, Jr. and Sr.,
along with Mauricio Montealegre, have built a "wall" around
Eduardo Montealegre, making access to him difficult for her
and for most of the other presidents of ALN-allied parties.
As a case in point, she mentioned that Eduardo Montealegre
recently visited PC headquarters in Granada as part of his
post-election recognition of departmental support. However,
while PC Assembly deputies were invited to the event, the ALN
did not invite Aviles, who attended anyway.


3. (C) Following the Granada incident, Aviles met with
Montealegre and conveyed her concern that the ALN is not
respecting the lines of communication and her role as
Conservative party president. She related that Montealegre
was receptive and reminded her that he has told alliance
party leaders that the consolidation of the ALN depends in
large part on the strength of its member parties. Aviles
acknowledged that part of the problem lies within the
Conservatives themselves, sharing that Montealegre's
PC-associated running mate Fabricio Cajina had let his
position "get to his head" and Cajina had tried to assume
leadership of the party when he does not have the authority.

THE GOOD OF NICARAGUA OUR FIRST COMMITMENT
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4. (C) Despite her frustration with the ALN leadership,
Aviles insisted she does not want to form a separate caucus
if doing so would endanger the future of the ALN-PC alliance.
She reiterated her commitment to the alliance "for the good
of Nicaragua." Nonetheless, Aviles was equally adamant that
she cannot afford to allow the PC's relationship with the ALN
to hurt her party's participation in the National Assembly.
She explained that according to PC by-laws, Conservative
lawmakers are expected to form their own caucus in the
Assembly if they qualify, and they do because five
Conservative deputies will join the new Assembly in January.
(Note/Comment: A minimum of four deputies are required to
form a caucus. By forming its own caucus, the PC would
benefit from substantial administrative support and maintain
its party identity. End Note/Comment.)

OTHER ALN ALLIES SHARE FRUSTRATION
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5. (C) Evangelical leader/current Assembly deputy Delia
Arellano, who broke with her Camino Cristiano party to
support Montealegre's candidacy and was not re-elected, was
also present at the meeting. Arellano said she had warned
Montealegre not to place Nicaraguan Resistance Party (PRN)
turncoat Salvador Talavera (Reftel) so high on his slate of
Assembly candidates (third) because he was not trustworthy;
now Talavera would vote with the FSLN bloc in the Assembly.
She also lamented the fact that she was relegated to ninth
place and thus was not re-elected. Even so, Arellano said
she is determined to support Montealegre and recently met
with him to present a strategy to attract more evangelicals
to the ALN cause, in part as a way for the alliance to make
inroads into Nicaragua's deep-rural population where many
evangelists reside. According to Arellano, up to 40% of
Nicaragua's population is evangelical. (Note: According to
the 2005 census, 55% of Nicaraguans aged five and older are
Catholic, 22% evangelical, 16% no stated religious
preference, and 4% of another religion. End Note.)


6. (C) According to Aviles, she is not the only party leader
allied with Montealegre that is frustrated over Montealegre's
lack of attention to his allies' needs. Aviles related that
Nicaraguan Resistance Party (PRN) leader Luis Fley (septel)
and other PRN "commandantes" had shared similar frustrations
and felt marginalized by the ALN "watchdogs" Nunez-Mauricio
Montealegre. Further, Alliance for the Republic (APRE)
President Miguel Lopez Baldizon was poised to withdraw APRE
from the ALN alliance, warned Aviles. (Note: Lopez Baldizon
is currently in Japan. We will meet with him upon his
return. End Note.) Polcouns reiterated the need for direct
communication and urged Aviles to talk with Montealegre
directly. She agreed to do so and will also meet with the
other disaffected party leaders to broach with Montealegre
constructive ideas to strengthen the alliance.

A POSSIBLE WAY FORWARD
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7. (C) Aviles suggested that naming the caucus ALN-PC,
instead of ALN, would offer a way out of the conundrum. She
added that according Conservative lawmakers in the ALN-PC
caucus "leadership roles" would help, for example allowing PC
deputy Javier Vallejo Fernandez (Granada) to serve as the VP
of the ALN-PC caucus. To lead the joint caucus, recognizing
that the presidency of the caucus should go to an ALN member,
Aviles suggested that ALN deputy Luis Callejas (Chinandega)
would be a suitable candidate, as he is young and a "fresh
face" that would demonstrate to the public that the ALN is
not merely a "PLC retread."

COMMENT
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8. (C) If the Conservative Party forms its own caucus from
the get-go, the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN)
and the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) will likely claim
that this move spells the demise of Montealegre's alliance.
Further complicating the ALN's integrity is the increasing
fragmentation of PRN leaders, including some who have
publicly stated that the PRN's alliance with the ALN ended
after the electoral period and possibly the estrangement of
the APRE president. Montealegre's reliance on the Nunez
family and his cousin Mauricio Montealegre has been
problematic in the past, and Aviles' observations about their
inordinate control over the ALN are not unique. We will meet
with Eduardo Montealegre within the next few days to share
these concerns and impress upon him the importance of
cultivating and consolidating his alliance.
BRENNAN