A/S SHANNON'S MEETING WITH THE MRS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002645

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA A/S SHANNON, WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2016
TAGS: EAID ECON EFIN KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: A/S SHANNON'S MEETING WITH THE MRS

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: During a November 27 meeting with Assistant
Secretary Thomas Shannon, key Sandinista Renovation Movement
(MRS) leaders expressed their views on the elections and the
party's future. MRS member Luis Carrion, National Assembly
deputy Monica Baltodano and spokesperson Israel Lewites
stated that the MRS will not "pact" with anyone in the
National Assembly, but rather will seek alliances on an
issue-by-issue basis. The MRS will continue to "test" Ortega
and push him on key concerns, Luis Carrion told A/S Shannon.
He also suggested that the United States should engage
Ortega, but insist on adherence to the rule of law,
anticorruption efforts and judicial reform.

THE PACT DETERMINED THE ELECTION RESULTS
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2. (C) On November 27, A/S Shannon met with MRS members Luis
Carrion (who came in place of MRS deputy Victor Hugo Tinoco,
who could not attend due to a death in the family) Monica
Baltodano and Israel Lewites to elicit their views on the
November elections. Claiming that the "pact" between the
National Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) and the Liberal
Constitutional Party (PLC) was responsible for the outcome,
Carrion opined that the FSLN and PLC acted as if they "owned
the process" on election day. He stated that while Daniel
Ortega did win the presidency, the MRS believes that the
Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) manipulated some of the
National Assembly deputy results. According to Carrion, on
election day, the FSLN was "ready for fraud," and if there
had not been so many national and international observers,
the fraud would have been much worse.


3. (C) Carrion also pointed to national/voter ID (cedula)
issuance and distribution problems and their effect on
election results. He mentioned his party's difficulties with
recruiting and training a sufficient number of party poll
watchers (fiscales) and maintaining a presence in rural
areas. In Carazo, Carrion believes the MRS succeeded in
fighting for its Assembly deputy seat because of its strong
presence in the department. In rural areas, however, the MRS
may have lost deputy seats because of little or no presence.
Carrion emphasized that the CSE also played a role in
manipulating the results. Though the CSE said that election
"anomalies" cited by the parties did not affect the vote
count, the MRS believes they add up and "probably stripped
them of a deputy or two." Carrion has sent several written
complaints to the CSE, but they have not answered a single
one. He opined that the system "is not trustworthy," and
that the electoral law needs to be reformed to make it more
equitable.

THE MRS: A SMALL BUT CRITICAL VOICE
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4. (C) Carrion stated that the MRS was disappointed with the
election results, having received less than they had wanted
and expected -- especially in the deputy races. But, he
opined, the MRS is convinced that it exercises "more
political weight than just a couple of deputies." Carrion
views the MRS as "a critical voice in the National Assembly"
and insisted that the party will not cave to pressure from
the FSLN. The FSLN is already trying to pull away MRS
members with offers of money and high-ranking positions, and
are using the argument that "all Sandinistas are the same,"
according to Carrion. He cited the example of Mario Valle,
who was elected on the MRS slate of deputies but has since
left the party for the FSLN. Carrion told A/S Shannon that
the MRS needs to push its programs and ideas and that there
will be no rigid "pact" with any party; instead the MRS will
seek alliances on individual issues.


5. (C) Carrion observed that in a way, having few deputies
gives the MRS more freedom to work on its central platform --
diminishing the inequity in Nicaragua. The MRS will not only
highlight justice and corruption issues, but also work
towards concrete and practical change. The MRS will expand
party presence throughout the country and prepare for the
2008 municipal elections, according to Israel Lewites. In
particular, the party will consolidate support in Carazo,
Masaya, and Managua and seek more rural support, he stated.
Monica Baltodano echoed the need for grassroots campaigning
to organize MRS supporters in the rural areas.


6. (C) A/S Shannon queried Carrion about the future of the
party and the possibility of membership in international
party centrals, much as the Soviet International. Carrion
admitted that the MRS was often overshadowed by the FSLN in
the international arena, but was looking to increase its
profile in that arena. A/S Shannon mentioned Spain as a
possible ally and suggested that international solidarity
would counter FSLN efforts to dismantle the party.

WE WILL TEST ORTEGA'S DEMOCRATIC CREDENTIALS
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7. (C) Throughout the meeting, the MRS leaders expressed
their concern about an FSLN government to A/S Shannon.
Carrion believes that the FSLN leadership is corrupt, which
presents an "enormous chance" for rampant corruption within
the new government. The MRS members each mentioned Ortega's
commitments to his supporters and that these promises will be
difficult to keep. Carrion considers it a "litmus" test --
how Ortega will balance the different factions within the
FSLN. Ortega's dealing with Arnoldo Aleman will be another
"test," since the PLC and the FSLN enjoy a majority in the
National Assembly, added Carrion. Lewites foresees Ortega
looking for opportunities to consolidate power and believes
that he will "pay off" certain sectors to the detriment of
the middle class.


8. (C) The MRS sees a clear role for the party to "test
Ortega's democratic credentials every step of the way,"
opined Carrion. The MRS will grant Ortega the benefit of the
doubt -- but he must respect and expand the democratic
process, elaborated Carrion. They will view each political
moment as "a test of his commitment to democracy." Lewites
added that the MRS "will be the pebble in Ortega's shoe, a
constant irritant and reminder of his promises to the people."


9. (C) Former FSLN militant Monica Baltodano claimed that
Ortega is "not a leftist" despite his radical discourse. She
termed him a "mafioso" and stated that his government is not
going to be good for the country -- Nicaragua needs change.
Opining that everyone appears happy with Ortega's initial
statements, she predicted that Ortega may be able to satisfy
certain sectors so that no one will oppose him, even though
fundamental problems in Nicaragua will not be addressed.
Baltodano sees the role of emerging leftist organizations
(and the MRS) to force Ortega to focus on issues of social
justice and anticorruption.

MRS ADVICE ON DEALING WITH ORTEGA
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10. (C) A/S Shannon explained to the MRS that he wants to
maintain a dialogue with Ortega but that he also hopes to
foster better dialogue with civil society and other political
parties. He emphasized that Nicaragua needs parties that are
focused on change and asked what the MRS predicted for the
future. Carrion responded that the situation is complex --
"When you expect the worst, even something poor becomes OK."
He believes this dynamic has created the image that
"everything is OK."


11. (C) In response to a question from Ambassador Trivelli
for advice on dealing with Ortega, Lewites cautioned that the
United States should not believe everything Ortega says.
Carrion opined that Ortega is driven by two "psychological
needs" -- one, to be legitimately elected as the president of
Nicaragua and two, to be recognized and accepted by the
United States. Because of this, Carrion believes that Ortega
needs to maintain a relationship with the United States.
Baltodano stated that the United States
needs to insist on rule of law and justice. Carrion echoed
her statement and added that judicial appointments will be a
key test of the new government.


12. (U) Participants:

Nicaragua:
Luis Carrion
Monica Baltodano
Israel Lewites

U.S.:
Assistant Secretary Tom Shannon
Ambassador Paul Trivelli
Polcouns Victoria Alvarado
Poloff Nicole Chulick (notetaker)


13. (U) This cable was cleared by A/S Shannon.
BRENNAN