EVANGELICALS PLEDGE CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR ALN

UNCLAS MANAGUA 002548

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NU
SUBJECT: EVANGELICALS PLEDGE CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR ALN

REF: A. MANAGUA 1520


B. MANAGUA 1333


1. (SBU) Summary: Evangelical leaders recently pledged to
continue to support the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN),
led by Eduardo Montealegre, as long as that party continues
to uphold Christian values. The reverends noted that
Montealegre has a chance to consolidate the party and draw
more disenchanted voters from the Liberal Constitutional
Party (PLC). Regarding the victory of Sandinista Front
(FSLN) candidate Daniel Ortega in the November 5 elections,
the leaders are hoping for continued positive relations with
the USG, but are not optimistic about the country's long-term
prosperity. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Poloffs met with leaders of the Nicaraguan
Evangelical Association, the Reverends Mauricio Fonseca
Pereira, Mauricio Orue Vasquez, Guillermo Ayala, and Danilo
Ortiz Zelaya, to discuss the outcome of the November 5
national elections. The reverends noted that Daniel Ortega
won with a minority of the vote. They characterized the
elections as a victory for the ALN and a defeat for the PLC,
which saw its legislative strength halved. Fonseca described
ALN candidate Eduardo Montealegre as a "hero" for building a
political alternative to the corrupt FSLN and PLC, and stated
that the ALN's success has permanently altered the political
landscape in Nicaragua by proving that a third party can
attract votes.


3. (SBU) The reverends claimed that a majority of evangelical
Christians (which they estimate constitute about 40 percent
of Nicaragua's population) supported the ALN. (Note: Other
estimates of the evangelical population range from 25 to 35
percent. End Note.) They mentioned a compact signed with
Montealegre outlining mutual interests and values -- a first
for a Nicaraguan Presidential candidate. Ayala stated that
increasing numbers of evangelicals, and Nicaraguans in
general, will support the ALN as long as the party "stays
clean." The reverends predicted that many of the PLC's
grassroots voters will now see that party as based on lies
and fear mongering and will switch allegiance to the ALN.


4. (SBU) When asked about the impact of Ortega's victory on
Nicaragua, the reverends commented that Nicaraguans are
taking a "wait and see" attitude, especially regarding the
economy and continued investment. "We pray for good
relations with the U.S.," said Orue. Fonseca stated that the
FSLN will have a "one year honeymoon" with investors and
foreign governments before "sucking the marrow" out of the
common people to enrich themselves. Ayala commented that the
type of leaders that show up for the inauguration of Ortega
will indicate the future path of the FSLN regime. He
wondered aloud whether leaders like Fidel Castro and Hugo
Chavez would take center stage.


5. (SBU) Reverend Fonseca mentioned that Jehovah's Witnesses,
a growing denomination in Nicaragua, do not vote out of
religious conviction. He estimated that the denomination has
about 100,000 adherents in the country. Some of the other
reverends reported that Jehovah's Witnesses were also
encouraging other evangelicals not to vote.


6. (SBU) Comment: The evangelicals, a growing segment of the
population, have formed a solid base of support for the ALN.
One key indicator of the ALN's continued viability will be
whether or not Montealegre can continue to successfully
manage relations with this group by prioritizing evangelical
outreach within the party.
TRIVELLI