SIT REP 8 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002546

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: SIT REP 8 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

REF: MANAGUA 2537 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (U) Summary: The deadline for political parties to submit
formal complaints regarding the vote count has passed. The
OAS has noted some anomalies in the National Assembly race,
but claims they were mostly resolved. According to an
analysis of the election observation effort presented by the
OAS to election donor embassies, the election, while not
perfect, was adequate. Etica y Transparencia (ET) presented
their final report and issued a strong statement against the
"suspicious" assignment of deputy seats. End Summary.

OAS notes anomalies...
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2. (C) On November 20, OAS Election Observation Mission
(EOM) technical director Patricio Gajardo presented to
election donor embassies the OAS,s preliminary assessment of
Nicaragua's electoral process. He and two other members of
the technical team will remain in country until at least 30
November, and longer if the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE)
has not finalized its results. He thanked representatives
from donor countries for the financial support and their
participation in the observation effort.


3. (C) Gajardo confirmed that EOM chief Gustavo Fernandez
will present an oral summary before the OAS Permanent Council
on November 22 and will deliver the final written report to
member countries sometime in December. After the members
approve the final report, it will be released, probably
sometime in February, according to Gajardo. For Gajardo, the
OAS final report will likely focus on three areas that
require improvement: national/voter ID (cedula) process
(issuance, delivery, etc.); the voter roll (padron); and,
electoral law and regulations. Gajardo acknowledged that the
OAS has still not received complete information from the CSE
on the total number of cedulas that applicants did not
retrieve before the November 5 election. He said that of
114,000 temporary voting documents, only 17,000 remained in
the CSE's possession, while the CSE had reported that it
still possesses 113,000 undelivered cedulas. However, the
CSE has not clarified whether these are cedulas that have
been in the CSE's possession for years or ones more recently
issued to Nicaraguans hoping to vote in the election.


4. (C) OAS legal advisor Hector Garcia noted that the OAS
obtained clear evidence that in Carazo department the
Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) had systematically
attempted to remove votes for the Sandinista Renovation
Movement (MRS) and add them to the FSLN's total. The issue
was resolved at the departmental level, where electoral
officials rationalized the error by claiming that people were
"exhausted" and had "made a mistake." Garcia added that the
OAS also received reports of vote manipulation in Masaya,
Matagalpa, and Managua, but had seen no evidence to back the
claims. (NOTE: We had heard from MRS contacts a few weeks
before the November 5 election that the FSLN planned this
type of vote count manipulation. END NOTE.) Regarding vote
result challenges (impugnaciones),Gajardo clarified that of
the 121 impugnaciones submitted, only 16 remained pending at
the CSE; the others had been resolved at the municipal or
departmental level. The CSE magistrates informed the OAS
that the outcomes of these 16 cases will not/not affect
election results.


5. (C) According to Garcia, the Liberal Constitutional Party
(PLC) and the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) submitted on
November 17 their appeals to the CSE in response to the CSE's
provisional results. Polcouns questioned the CSE's refusal
to share the final provisional results (over 98%) of the
election with the political parties (we expect the CSE gave
copies to the parties that control it -- the FSLN and PLC)
and observers; noting that without the information it was
difficult for the parties to compare their results with the
CSE's provisional tallies. Gajardo replied that the CSE had
told the OAS that many of the formal vote tally sheets
(actas) that arrived toward the end of the computation
process were blurred, and thus could not be shared. Polcouns
observed that it is incomprehensible that all of actas
arriving after the CSE had released the results for 92% of
the JRVs -- the remaining 8% or so -- would be blurred.
Further, if they were so blurred, how could the CSE use them?
She reminded the group that even a few votes here or there
could affect the outcome of a departmental National Assembly
seat. Gajardo promised to follow up on the matter,

MANAGUA 00002546 002 OF 002


reiterating however, that the OAS can do nothing unless the
parties make formal complaints.


6. (C) In general terms, Gajardo opined that the technical
aspects of observation for the November election went well --
they were not perfect, but adequate. He suggested that
setting more specific time frames for observer groups would
help, noting that U.S. and Canadian assistance to the OAS
allowed them to be present in Nicaragua for the March
Atlantic Coast elections and remain through the November
elections. Regarding coordination efforts among observers,
Gajardo gave strong marks to OAS coordination with the EU,
Carter Center, and other international groups, but noted that
work with domestic observers was spottier. While he deemed
coordination with Etica y Transparencia (ET) and IPADE to be
positive, Gajardo said that coordination with Hagamos
Democracia and Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) was less
effective. Gajardo suggested that the MpN's dual role
caused it difficulties. While he praised MpN's efforts to
help Nicaraguans obtain birth certificates (or updated ones
in many cases) as one of the best election projects of all,
Gajardo remarked that the MpN's anti-PLC/FSLN pact position
detracted from its other efforts.


7. (C) Gajardo recommended that the election donor group
work with the new government, the CSE, the new legislature,
and civil society to encourage improvements in the cedula
process and overall civil registry; clean up the padron; and,
promote electoral law and regulatory reforms that would
depoliticize the electoral process. Gajardo cited what he
termed "an overdose of aid" had flooded Nicaragua during the
year before the November 5 election. He remarked that more
sustained assistance over a period of five years would be
more beneficial, adding that preparations for the 2008
municipal elections should start now. He also suggested that
the UNDP, through its Central American political leadership
program, work with the OAS and donors to consolidate the new
political parties and groom young political leaders.

...while ET signals possible fraud
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8. (SBU) Etica y Transparencia issued their report November
17 on the allocation of National Assembly seats. In the
report, they pointed out several "suspicious" cases.
Overall, ET's number were close to those of the CSE -- 25 PLC
deputy seats, 37 FSLN deputy seats, 23 ALN deputy seats and 5
MRS deputy seats. However, he stated in the press conference
that ET had found discrepancies in three departmental seats
-- Matagalpa, Chinandega and the RAAN. ET Executive Director
Roberto Courtney stated that ET helped the ALN and MRS obtain
copies of actas that the CSE would not give them. He also
signaled that the delay by the CSE in publishing final deputy
results is "suspicious."
TRIVELLI